Yeah… that totally lost me. The very forces at play that should give us a fairly decent 10-14 window of opportunity are also what causes us to go into IMO what should be a very warm period.
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Pattern Jammin January 2023
- Thread starter Goose88
- Start date
Gfs suite is concerning with extending the jet more and more each run
Uh oh ICON ? 
pretty deep trough, definitely possible to see some token flakes on saturday
Keep it up.. a bit more + tilt but that ULL keeps coming south 
? 
jeremyt
Member
Biggest event so far around here
griteater
Member
Haven’t seen that yet with the ensembles or the extended Euro Control run for example, but it’s ’interesting’ because I would think as we go out in time toward early Feb, the thing we would be more concerned about is the Pac Jet not extending enough and retracting back into -PNA mode based on the MJO progression. So for now, just watching ? to see how much influence the +EAMT processes are going to have with extending the jet. Would be just bad luck if it over-extends again given that the MJO is moving along and should have less jet extension influence this go around…but I think we’re going to see this setup nicely for the last week of Jan, with early Feb more of a question mark. As always, it’s just an educated best guess at that range
biggest event for everyone south of the hudson river and within 100 miles of the atlantic, this has been a truly dreadful start to winter. dc, philly, that corridor has barely sniffed snow. i have not seen a flake. this is gamblers fallacy lunacy i know but a lot of folks are due for something to break our way, even if it's just pleasant saturday snow showers that have no chance of sticking.
jeremyt
Member
griteater
Member
And when I say ‘setup nicely’, I just mean a trough in the east with western ridging, and cooler/colder conditions…who knows on wintry chances
One would think at this range, two globals might be just a wee bit closer in solutions:
I hope so. That was not a good run. And a few more ticks in that direction and there’s nothing on the backside..
Really messy. Would prefer more energy in the back side and more consolidation and while we're wishing would prefer the northern stream energy dropping into the back side of the trough.
RDUHeatIsland
Member
Yep I just took a look at the season accum map and it looks real sad on the east coast. Even 2011-2012 wasn't this bad for a lot of folks.
2022-2023 so far:
2011-2012 on Jan 9:
2015-2016 was also shockingly horrendous. It must've been backloaded because I don't remember it being that bad of a winter.
Theme of the night: tilt sucks
2011-2012 was about as bad as it gets and still the gold standard for me as far as "worst winters" go
2015 started with an ultra torch but got redeemed with the 1-23-2016 blizzard that is an all timer across the i-95 corridor, i think we also had some nickel and dime events after
this winter- not even that torchy. instead it we get vapors of a threat in the 7-10 day range just to see it get less amped/positively tilted and pass harmless off the coast