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Pattern Jammin January 2023

SD said:
Remember when we weren't going to get below 32 until....yet the last few days imby 33, 31, 30, 27
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Dude I had the same thought this morning, 28, 29, 30 and 25 last 4 mornings here thus far. Any model showing 16 days without any temps below freezing around here in January are trash
 
metwannabe said:
Dude I had the same thought this morning, 28, 29, 30 and 25 last 4 mornings here thus far. Any model showing 16 days without any temps below freezing around here in January are trash
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Yeah it's easy to get fooled by afternoon highs around 55 but it's not an overly warm airmass in place
 
SD said:
6z Nam had flurries snow showers all back into MS and south into AL it'll be interesting to see how this looks on the higher res models once in rangeView attachment 129814
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As @Fountainguy97 stated yesterday, I believe there will be at least one NAMing for us to drool over in the next couple of days.
 
SD said:
Yeah it's easy to get fooled by afternoon highs around 55 but it's not an overly warm airmass in place
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Damp on top of that. Typical el nino weather. Even though we are supose to be in a year 3 La Nina.
 
smast16 said:
Oddly enough, it's not been that cold back west.

View attachment 129818
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At that one location but those lows aren't too far off from what I posted and it's believable that some isolated locales away from Greensboro proper were a few degrees colder

edit: and 29 this morning at Greensboro, not yet depicted in the chart you shared
 
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NorthDFWwx said:
It hasn't been that cold anywhere in the SE half of the country...

View attachment 129821
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Maybe the comments above were taken out of context or something. Nobody said it's been "that cold" or below normal, only there was a GFS run (maybe other models as well) that showed no below freezing temps for the next 2 weeks but it's been below freezing the last 4 nights. Daytime highs as Shane mentioned above are a different story, they've been A or AN
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
It's January so it'll be cold, especially mornings. But compared to average it's no denying it's a blowtorch
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The crazy thing is that, even though the trough is in the west, they aren't really below average, much, if at all. The whole nation is warm. So is Europe. Makes me wonder if weather modification is a real thing. This is definitely helping reduce the stress on the limited natural gas supplies. Shove all the cold in to Siberia and northern China. It's exactly the kind of scenario that would be the most beneficial for Europe and the U.S. at exactly the right time of the year.

It's probably just coincidence.
 
weatherfide said:
The crazy thing is that, even though the trough is in the west, they aren't really below average, much, if at all. The whole nation is warm. So is Europe. Makes me wonder if weather modification is a real thing. This is definitely helping reduce the stress on the limited natural gas supplies. Shove all the cold in to Siberia and northern China. It's exactly the kind of scenario that would be the most beneficial for Europe and the U.S. at exactly the right time of the year.

It's probably just coincidence.
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When you avg high is 24 but your running 34.. By data your blowtorch but commonsense says your not. Graphs/ model make things look worse, esp the color charts they use today.
 
weatherfide said:
The crazy thing is that, even though the trough is in the west, they aren't really below average, much, if at all. The whole nation is warm. So is Europe. Makes me wonder if weather modification is a real thing. This is definitely helping reduce the stress on the limited natural gas supplies. Shove all the cold in to Siberia and northern China. It's exactly the kind of scenario that would be the most beneficial for Europe and the U.S. at exactly the right time of the year.

It's probably just coincidence.
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We are seeing below normal heights out west, yes, but it's zonal west to east flow off the Pacific. For the west to get good and cold, they want to see like a west-based -EPO / amplified -PNA pattern, like Jan 1950...

51ryemf.png


DwmC6y0.png
 
SD said:
Remember when we weren't going to get below 32 until....yet the last few days imby 33, 31, 30, 27
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My point forecast has me with rain Thurs and Thurs night, and 29 Friday night. So...not a cold problem. Not a moisture problem. Rather, as always in the deep south, it's a timing problem, lol. It always gets to freezing in winter, and it always rains in winter...it's a matter of jet stream, placement of highs and lows, blocking or not blocking, negative and positive indices, and on an on...that decides timing. You don't need a screaming cross polar flow, and a monsoon, giving us a 93 blizzard, just need what every winter gives us, but in the right order :) I'm looking foreward to a long, fun winter.....three days at a time.
 
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