tennessee storm
Member
Plus. It’s the gfs lol
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Pattern Jammin January 2023
- Thread starter Goose88
- Start date
Plus. It’s the gfs lol
GoDuke
Member
Who doesn’t like a good underdog story?
NCSNOW
Member
Day 10 from 0z last night. Euro op was the one getting close. Wave dampens out. Stays chilly. GFS does its usual 180 degree turn every 6 hours.
Heres euro and canadian. Interesting to see if we get a pv press or trough, just where it wants to dig down at.
Canadian
Im off to church in the mid 30degree rain.
Heres euro and canadian. Interesting to see if we get a pv press or trough, just where it wants to dig down at.
Canadian
Im off to church in the mid 30degree rain.
Facts
Amen, hope you have a great service. Mosst disappointing thing ever is a cold rain. Love cold, live rain but I do not like a cold rain lol
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Beautiful 35 and rain!
Ron Burgundy
Member
That convection really snuck up on me. About 4:30am I woke up standing on my feet convinced a bomb had gone off. Lightning hit a tall pine right outside our bedroom window. Loudest noise I’ve ever heard and the whole room flashed orange. It’s one thing when you know a storm’s around but quite another when you have no idea and the first bolt hits right on top of you. Almost had to get the paddles for me!
Euro ensembles actually had quite a bit of bites in the late January early February time frame as well
12z NAM continues to show the next CAD battle for next week. Wake County always seems to be on the front lines.
Thursday late afternoon:
Thursday late afternoon:
Backside action for the high country. Slowly upping those annual numbers along the border 
Is that a snow look 
Yes...for Chicago.
No but models seem to be honing in on that cold bleeding east around 240-300 hours which is a good signal for some CAD stuff later
Pumped for next Friday/Saturday. Should be dry and hopefully sunny. Would be good time to get that pre-emergent down...should be very easy to see high's in the 60's to low 70's by mid-Feb with the pattern we are going to get.
CMC on its way to bleeding cold east 
SWVAwxfan
Member
What a weather fail today. Not only for wintry weather, but not even enough rain to wet the ground.
Having to rely on cold “bleeding” east of the apps with these central/western US centric troughs almost always ends up going bad for us, other then 35-45 degree damming
In a crappy pattern I’ll take any chance we can get certainly a CAD event of some sort isn’t off the table here
Most of us on this forum are in the business of hope. The only hopeful thing showing is a mighty cold air mass moving into the continent, and we are not fighting stale pacific air but the SE ridge. If we can get a high pressure in the NE to send enough of that air down around a boundary, then something is possible
A year ago today 
Stormsfury
Member
I'm right on the northern portion of the 144.0" ?
Dont let Logan Elliot see the -PNA trend on the gefs 
MichaelJ
Member
Dude, I admire your optimism however misplaced it is! ?
iGRXY
Member
This is a more -PNA/-NAO with a 50/50 look. Textbook Miller B/CAD pattern. At a minimum we are likely staying in the low 40’s for the foreseeable future
iGRXY
Member
It stopped raining on the radar around 10 here. But was still getting moderate rain for another hour. Since then it’s been a consistent heavy mist and I’ve been stuck at 38. Better get used to it lol
A good portion of GEFS ensembles had a CAD icing and or winter weather of some variety at that 240+ time frame. A legit possibility if the cold can bleed east but we saw the same thing February 2021 just for everything bro go west and we got warm.
That 50/50 trend though ?
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Nice to see some agreement of some building off of cold air masses here which have the potential to parade into the US .. first stop is going to obviously favor central and western US though. The key would be kicking this out our way. Not impossible but again a heavily favored better scenario for winter precip west of here. 
TPV is pretty far east though in this upcoming western trough regime. Something that can’t be ignored
And that can get cold air east given enough table setters
Which is usually money for us. But the Aluetian ridge which I assume is La Nina driven is going to ruin it for us
Yeah. It’s weird where the TPV sets up though, the pattern is very tilted, normally with a -PNA regime it’s sets up in central-western Canada or dives down to the PNW. I’m not a fan of it but could be argued that cold bleeds east a little time to time. especially if it ticks south on modeling. Ofc by that I mean it’s nothing compared to the plains, and we’re on the warmer side other then sporadic 40 degree days
IDK. I'd not be starting the tomato plants just yet with this look.
Channeling my inner Bastardi, I see lots of cracks in the artic dam showing up to start Flaming February.
Channeling my inner Bastardi, I see lots of cracks in the artic dam showing up to start Flaming February.
Probably need a thread for this severe threat
I thought about planting my annuals based upon some on this board.IDK. I'd not be starting the tomato plants just yet with this look.
Channeling my inner Bastardi, I see lots of cracks in the artic dam showing up to start Flaming February.
They make it seem as if Winter is dead no more freezing temps nor even frost.
Which is crazy.
Of course this doesn't mean any frozen weather for most.
But at least acknowledge that yes it's going to be warm to very warm but cold temps are not done.