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Pattern Jammin January 2023

Billypg70 said:
I thought about planting my annuals based upon some on this board.
They make it seem as if Winter is dead no more freezing temps nor even frost.
Which is crazy.
Of course this doesn't mean any frozen weather for most.
But at least acknowledge that yes it's going to be warm to very warm but cold temps are not done.
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Yeah planting right now is a terrible idea and I keep seeing a lot about pre emergent season and I wouldnt touch that stuff north of I20 yet and even between I10 and I20 it might be early
 
Meanwhile back at the ranch, GSP issues winter weather advisory for 2” to 6” of snow for the high country

iNWS Alert

inws.ncep.noaa.gov

224 PM EST Sun Jan 22 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
4 PM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 4
inches. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of western North Carolina.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 4 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning commute. Gusty winds could
bring down tree branches.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Locations along the Tennessee border at
elevations above 4500 feet on the northwest facing slopes could
receive snow accumulations of 4 to 6 inches, with locally higher
amounts possible. Up to 2 inches will be possible in the valleys.D730437F-882C-420B-8AAD-60A2D9446743.jpeg
 
Every time the cold is on our side of the globe and we get this hudson bay vortex look, we wind up getting lots of fantasy snow and tantalizing modeled arctic outbreaks, but ultimately nothing ever materializes. I know if you look back in history at some major events it can work out quite well, but I swear it's lead to nothing but disappointment ever since I've been model watching.

But I am a weenie so I will eat up any upcoming fantasy snow and remain optimistic that this time it works out in our favor.
 
Billypg70 said:
I thought about planting my annuals based upon some on this board.
They make it seem as if Winter is dead no more freezing temps nor even frost.
Which is crazy.
Of course this doesn't mean any frozen weather for most.
But at least acknowledge that yes it's going to be warm to very warm but cold temps are not done.
Click to expand...
Never base planting off the reactions of a bunch of weenies.
 
Very big difference from yesterday to today on the EPS especially out west .. again tip toeing on the line of absolute garbage to an absolute beauty. Yesterday we leaned towards garbage today back the other way .. who knows but history tells us to lean towards garbage .. it almost makes me think the TPV placement is helping pull the trough axis further east but who knows .. TPVs and their placement can make miracles happen so we will see 1674418154599.gif
 
I think what happens is if you get the true major polar vortex with the coldest air to drift over and just south of Greenland it can set up a dynamite pattern for wintry sort of like the 12z EPS shows.. but ultimately it very rarely drifts over that way, instead it almost always stays farther to the west before drifting back towards the North pole, which leaves us on the wrong side of every storm with all that arctic air just out of reach.
 
rburrel2 said:
Feb 2014... one of many epic screw jobs for Oconee/Pickens county in SC. Utter devastation, lol.View attachment 130979
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That was a fun couple of days here. I can remember driving north towards Greenville late that night and being about the only car on the road. Ripping. Roads were a mess and plows weren’t able to keep up. Good times
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
That April freeze is always a guarantee, unlike nicky
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Nothing is guaranteed in life. I'll take my chances at a greater crop yield if this look continues into mid-February. I'm about 60-70% confident Above Normal Temperature's holds, we will see. Arctic sea ice is below last year and 2012(record minimum).
PRISM_tmean_early_4kmD2_anomaly_MTD_20230121.png

1674419991991.png
 
severestorm said:
Nothing is guaranteed in life. I'll take my chances at a greater crop yield if this look continues into mid-February. I'm about 60-70% confident Above Normal Temperature's holds, we will see. Arctic sea ice is below last year and 2012(record minimum).
PRISM_tmean_early_4kmD2_anomaly_MTD_20230121.png

View attachment 130981
Click to expand...
The 2nd worse winter to 2012, 2020, had a record warm January and a warm February and had one the the coldest April's with frosts and a May frost because the TPV visited that early May. Winter temps don’t mean much. Last several years spring has found a way to suck and be cold
 
EmersonGA said:
Never base planting off the reactions of a bunch of weenies.
Click to expand...
This person has a meteorology degree.
He's on here a bunch..
I never want to run someone like that off of this board,
Because he has much more to add than 99% of the posters on this or any board.
He speaks in absolutes based upon analogs & long range modeling.
Which to me is crazy.
 
Billypg70 said:
This person has a meteorology degree.
He's on here a bunch..
I never want to run someone like that off of this board,
Because he has much more to add than 99% of the posters on this or any board.
He speaks in absolutes based upon analogs & long range modeling.
Which to me is crazy.
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Webber's a good asset. Can't thank him enough with his archival of weather events after NCSU and NWS apparently ended that historical partnership which is crazy considering their office is on NCSU's campus.
 
Seeing various CAD solutions over parts of the south/mid Atlantic on the CMC ensemble to varying degrees within 2-3 days of each other in the first few days of February. May end up being nothing, but the key is to get that TPV further east and drive that baroclinic frontal zone further south, which to me would open the door for hopes of winter weather.

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Billypg70 said:
This person has a meteorology degree.
He's on here a bunch..
I never want to run someone like that off of this board,
Because he has much more to add than 99% of the posters on this or any board.
He speaks in absolutes based upon analogs & long range modeling.
Which to me is crazy.
Click to expand...
My response had nothing to do with Webb and I’m glad he’s on here to temper everyone and share his knowledge. I was more pointing towards the folks that are going to put pre emergent a month or more early since we’ll be a bit above normal. I’ve had frost nearly every April and a good handful of Mays since I started keeping track and February warmth has nothing to do with it or the beginning of growing season.
 
EmersonGA said:
My response had nothing to do with Webb and I’m glad he’s on here to temper everyone and share his knowledge. I was more pointing towards the folks that are going to put pre emergent a month or more early since we’ll be a bit above normal. I’ve had frost nearly every April and a good handful of Mays since I started keeping track and February warmth has nothing to do with it or the beginning of growing season.
Click to expand...
I'd say most saying winter is over is speaking of sustained cold patterns and winter weather. Anyone who's lived here any length of time knows we have freezes until late March early April
 
EmersonGA said:
My response had nothing to do with Webb and I’m glad he’s on here to temper everyone and share his knowledge. I was more pointing towards the folks that are going to put pre emergent a month or more early since we’ll be a bit above normal. I’ve had frost nearly every April and a good handful of Mays since I started keeping track and February warmth has nothing to do with it or the beginning of growing season.
Click to expand...
I laugh when I see people talking about pre emergent and growing season. I have been in the turf industry for over 30 years now. Pre Emergent generally goes down Feb in warmer climates that has Bermuda, Zoysia, or centipede turf. Crabgrass does not germinate until ground temps are constant 55 degrees. You can't go by a site that shows ground temps as many are different. Check your own. A light frost will take out young crabgrass easily and I doubt we go rest of winter without another frost in my area.

If you live in where warm season grass is at and you use granular pre emergent then get it out. Granular takes longer to break down. Also keep in mind above average rainfall will leach out your pre emergent quicker which will make less effective and crabgrass will show up in early August. Now back to the Cold Rain.
 
EmersonGA said:
My response had nothing to do with Webb and I’m glad he’s on here to temper everyone and share his knowledge. I was more pointing towards the folks that are going to put pre emergent a month or more early since we’ll be a bit above normal. I’ve had frost nearly every April and a good handful of Mays since I started keeping track and February warmth has nothing to do with it or the beginning of growing season.
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Just to be clear,
He's definitely an asset.
I want him posting daily regardless if their pro or anti winter weather.
I just hate the cancel winter in mid Dec posts.
IDC what long range modeling nor analogs say.
 
NoSnowATL said:
Never plant until after Easter. Unless you live in Florida and you can plant 365 down here.
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I agree. I never plant my vegetables until after April 15th, otherwise known as the tax deadline for many Americans. My grandfathers who lived in Wilson County and Wayne County in North Carolina usually waited until around May 1st. After getting burned by that May freeze a couple of years ago, I'm hesitant to plant anything until I feel confident that the weather patterns are not advertising anything below 40 degrees for low temperatures.
 
weather bubba said:
I agree. I never plant my vegetables until after April 15th, otherwise known as the tax deadline for many Americans. My grandfathers who lived in Wilson County and Wayne County in North Carolina usually waited until around May 1st. After getting burned by that May freeze a couple of years ago, I'm hesitant to plant anything until I feel confident that the weather patterns are not advertising anything below 40 degrees for low temperatures.
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You could plant on January 1st and harvest before the April freeze. #NinaLife


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