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Pattern Jammin January 2023

Webberweather53 said:
Looks like a bunch of noise beyond day 10.
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Seems to be slowly increasing. Not as much noise on the GEFS but there are close to five really big deals which given the near February 2014 evolution like @Myfrotho704_ mentioned, could stand to reason.
 
BullCityWx said:
20th anniversary of one of my GOATs

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I remember watching Al Conklin and Eric Thomas the evening before this event. They were only calling for an inch or so in Charlotte, but I specifically remember them mentioning the Canadian model at that time showing an interesting scenario that could produce more. Woke up in the morning to a winter wonderland and school cancelled. Sledding in the 12 degree temps on the evening of the 23rd sure was fun too. Would love to see one like that again.
 
lexxnchloe said:
Webber is making good points. No need to dump on him. The persistent pattern has been warm and warmer. I will beleive the cold has come when it has come, and for more than 3 days.
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I dont think that was the point he was making.
 
lexxnchloe said:
Webber is making good points. No need to dump on him. The persistent pattern has been warm and warmer. I will beleive the cold has come when it has come, and for more than 3 days.
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This has always and will always be a warm pattern but in a pattern that is warm you can get transient periods of favorability for some winter weather. We are tracking those short windows. One was later this week when we will be delivered a good cold shot but tilts and lack of energy that threat died quickly. Even if we do get a favorable period (as models are predicting again at the start of February) I have no doubt we revert back to warm after that period so we’re not going to see long term cold in this pattern but we can still see shots at winter potential which is what most here are interested in and subsequently track
 
NCSNOW said:
Saw on JB's twitter feed Mammoth MTN Ski Area has only had 509 inches of snow so far this year. Can you imagine. He had a retweet of someone up there filming 100mph gust, obviously slopes where closed. Also saw on his feed where the NYC fox station weatherman got mugged/attacked on the subway.
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Fox News Channel weatherman actually
 
znel52 said:
One of the top storms of my lifetime. I lived in extreme Eastern Carteret County tiny town of Atlantic where that 9 inches of snow is. Man me and my friends had a blast in that storm. Only 1 or 2 better storms in my lifetimet
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I would love to see that at that location
That town is paradise. They still ferry you out to National seashore, drop you off and come back to get you?

Current Obs: 46 degrees, breezy/Chilly, But we got had Sun for a while. Ground conditions are full on swamp. Sink walking in the yard from all the rain this winter. Yesterday was another big soaker. and it looks like another big round is due in here Wednesday. El nino conditions have been persistent here for weeks.

Greensboro is making a serious run at the wettest January on record
 
DadOfJax said:
Im still waiting to see where I called for it? Same applies to you....."If trends" and "could be" are far from a prediction...and yes, at 9:30 in the morning, the system looked extremely unimpressive at that time. Did it improve, absolutely. Was I wrong in saying I was unimpressed, absolutely not, because I wasn't....in the same way that I am unimpressed by your trolling attempts. Maybe others are impressed, maybe others aren't.....doesn't make either of them wrong. Try again later.
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SD said:
Hey so if you guys want to continue you can take it to the banter thread. Thanks.

This whole right vs wrong warm vs cold crap stops today. I'm tired of having to do this every winter now. Use the ignore button or simply just don't respond to people and move along.
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CltNative90 said:
I remember watching Al Conklin and Eric Thomas the evening before this event. They were only calling for an inch or so in Charlotte, but I specifically remember them mentioning the Canadian model at that time showing an interesting scenario that could produce more. Woke up in the morning to a winter wonderland and school cancelled. Sledding in the 12 degree temps on the evening of the 23rd sure was fun too. Would love to see one like that again.
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I seem to remember that by the 11pm broadcast, Eric Thomas talked like he wanted to up totals much higher, but GSP was holding firm on a WWA and didn’t upgrade to a WSW in their late evening update… even though a mesolow had formed near Spartanburg, and snow was breaking out a few hours earlier than forecast.
 
NCSNOW said:
I would love to see that at that location
That town is paradise. They still ferry you out to National seashore, drop you off and come back to get you?

Current Obs: 46 degrees, breezy/Chilly, But we got had Sun for a while. Ground conditions are full on swamp. Sink walking in the yard from all the rain this winter. Yesterday was another big soaker. and it looks like another big round is due in here Wednesday. El nino conditions have been persistent here for weeks.

Greensboro is making a serious run at the wettest January on record
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Yeah they still do. Beautiful to see the beaches covered in snow. Shame it is such a rare event.
 
LukeBarrette said:
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I’ll take my chances with this look any day however it seems like GFS may be on an island.
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This isn't to far off at H5 from the epic Snowmegadon run the other day. has the pv piece in a good spot, this storm Goes on to pop down east, then has another shot for western NC afterwards.

prateptype_cat-imp.conus.png
 
NCSNOW said:
Hope the NWS Blacksburg office warn the folks in Surry County..........LOL What are the BF, 0 for 4 on the season?

zr_acc-imp.us_ma.png
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Yeah it's really amazing how much they grid forecast changes. Like Yesterday the had a chance of sleet and freezing rain. After midnight, Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Temps in the low 30s Tuesday night. Low 40s Wednesday. I get up this morning. It reads rain, but with the same temps. No mention of sleet and freezing rain? They are just backed and forth every package. And yes, there are at least 0 for 4 This winter. lol Current forecast.
TUESDAY NIGHT
Partly cloudy in the evening, then cloudy with a chance of rain after midnight. Cold with lows in the lower 30s. South winds around 5 mph, becoming southeast after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

WEDNESDAY
Rain. Highs in the mid 40s. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent. sigh...
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Gefs going with the idea of cutting off ridge over Alaska and speeding up flow under it, this run might end up cold as a result View attachment 131044
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And at 282 hours, the ensemble panels are loaded with potential winter storms. That's a crazy difference from 0z 1/23/2023 run.
 
KyloG said:
Don't get much colder than this for the conus

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Yep cut the ridge off and prevent the ability to really dump in the west. Cross polar flow dumps into Canada and we flood Noam with cold with a string of high pressures from siberis to the great lakes. Would be the most fortunate good break winter weather lovers have caught in a long time. I trust it about 10%
 
Chazwin said:
I seem to remember that by the 11pm broadcast, Eric Thomas talked like he wanted to up totals much higher, but GSP was holding firm on a WWA and didn’t upgrade to a WSW in their late evening update… even though a mesolow had formed near Spartanburg, and snow was breaking out a few hours earlier than forecast.
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Simpler times when I used to get all my winter weather info from flipping back and forth between channels. I’m sure I watched Udelson and whoever was on WCNC that evening too (maybe Teri Bennett), but Thomas and Conklin stuck in my mind as being the only ones to mention the possibility. This event and the other early 2000s events are a big reason behind me becoming a snow weenie lol.
 
CltNative90 said:
Simpler times when I used to get all my winter weather info from flipping back and forth between channels. I’m sure I watched Udelson and whoever was on WCNC that evening too (maybe Teri Bennett), but Thomas and Conklin stuck in my mind as being the only ones to mention the possibility. This event and the other early 2000s events are a big reason behind me becoming a snow weenie lol.
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I just remember getting home from work about 10:45 that evening and it was already starting to snow very lightly, and I thought to myself that this was really early… it wasn’t supposed to start until 3am and so. When I went in and turned on the TV and looked at the radar, it was looked nothing like what I expected based on the forecast. The snow had developed well ahead of what was coming from the west and you could tell that it was gonna be a much bigger deal that what they had mentioned all day.
 
CltNative90 said:
Simpler times when I used to get all my winter weather info from flipping back and forth between channels. I’m sure I watched Udelson and whoever was on WCNC that evening too (maybe Teri Bennett), but Thomas and Conklin stuck in my mind as being the only ones to mention the possibility. This event and the other early 2000s events are a big reason behind me becoming a snow weenie lol.
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We had a guy by the name of ACWeather on WWBB who called it. He said he expected 2-3" but maybe a lot more.

I *think* that was --------'s rookie year but I may be off by a year.
 
SD said:
I'd assume there are a number of gefs members with absurd snow/ice totals this run probably centered around 2/1-3 west then 4-6 east. Maybe a few mixed in down or even south of I20. This is an impressive run only have to hold it for 8-12 more days
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Not really that many big dogs over NC... just a few. They occur after 2/4.Screenshot 2023-01-23 132054.png
 
SD said:
I'd assume there are a number of gefs members with absurd snow/ice totals this run probably centered around 2/1-3 west then 4-6 east. Maybe a few mixed in down or even south of I20. This is an impressive run only have to hold it for 8-12 more days
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There must be a metwannabe special in there somewhere lol

edit: obviously better than nothing at this lead time, we will take it

sn10_acc-mean-imp.us_ma.png
 
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