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Pattern Jammin January 2023

weatherfide said:
Yes, but that flip is probably transient. It's going to take perfect timing. I don't buy in to the "staying for the rest of winter". No trough has been permanent in the east since - like 2010-2011.
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It’s wild…meanwhile Seattle will get locked in for 3 snowy weeks or Texas is tundra for 10 days.


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weatherfide said:
Yes, but that flip is probably transient. It's going to take perfect timing. I don't buy in to the "staying for the rest of winter". No trough has been permanent in the east since - like 2010-2011.
Click to expand...
I don’t buy into staying for the rest of winter either, but I do think we should see a 10-14 window in which we could see a decent winter storm, and yes even in that it will still need right timing to happen as it always does here in the south.
 
weatherfide said:
Yes, but that flip is probably transient. It's going to take perfect timing. I don't buy in to the "staying for the rest of winter". No trough has been permanent in the east since - like 2010-2011.
Click to expand...
But who has suggested that we would flip to a trough in the east, and then it stay for the rest of winter? No one on here has stated that
 
NCSNOW said:
Wonder how much SS energy we forfeit with the pac jet retreating Jan 20 onward. I'm glad to see it, just hope we can find some energy for the NS to work with during this stretch.

And early Kudos to the GEPS as it has been rock steady advertising. Not verified yet, but its getting support as we start getting inside 10 days now.
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Unless we can miraculously find a way to support 50/50 low generation (not shown in the 'potential' pattern), we're probably looking at "stream separation" being the operative phrase.....as in, getting a shortwave to separate off the base of the longwave trough that is suppressing the storm track and providing cold air...and have that wave run into us or under us. I haven't looked at the ensemble members though at h5
 
griteater said:
But who has suggested that we would flip to a trough in the east, and then it stay for the rest of winter? No one on here has stated that
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In fairness, I believe he’s referring to JB’s tweet that was posted on here yesterday… a tweet that made a lot of sense until he said he expects it to hold the rest of the winter.
 
weatherfide said:
Yes, but that flip is probably transient. It's going to take perfect timing. I don't buy in to the "staying for the rest of winter". No trough has been permanent in the east since - like 2010-2011.
Click to expand...
Why do we talk in absolutes?
All patterns r transient.
Some last longer than others but in my old mind,
I never remember a winter were it was wall to wall warm or cold on either coast.
Hence all patterns are transient.
 
Chazwin said:
I don’t buy into staying for the rest of winter either, but I do think we should see a 10-14 window in which we could see a decent winter storm, and yes even in that it will still need right timing to happen as it always does here in the south.
Click to expand...

Gonna be tough. Once the Pac jet relaxes it’ll be ridge city until (if) Nina leaves


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Billypg70 said:
Why do we talk in absolutes?
All patterns r transient.
Some last longer than others but in my old mind,
I never remember a winter were it was wall to wall warm or cold on either coast.
Hence all patterns are transient.
Click to expand...
Yes. Of course. I suspect most of us are referring to the cold & dry--warm up & rain, rinse repeat scenarios in the SE. It's the prevailing cycle in most of even the most best winters here. However when we can get about a week's worth of 'good' cold something eventually comes wet into the pattern unless hard suppression is afoot--like vodka cold.
 
ATLwxfan said:
Gonna be tough. Once the Pac jet relaxes it’ll be ridge city until (if) Nina leaves


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The Niña is definitely weakening. While it looks as though we’re most likely going to go into a period that sees an extended SER and very mild temperatures across the Southeast, the process that gets us there should, like others have said, give us a window of opportunity to get something. It doesn’t have to be a long window either… for example everyone looks back at February 2014 and thinks of it as a great month of wall to wall cold, but in reality outside of a few days in the middle of the month that saw back to back storms, it was mostly quite mild.
 
Nearly 70 degrees here on January 10th

I just can't help but wonder how we're gonna pay for this ? because we're going to
 
I will say, we have a hurdle, NA is flooded with mild pacific air, getting it out would indeed take time, and snow cover is very poor, what helps is we’re in peak climo, but vs any other time, that +PNA comes with a challenge of how conditions were before hand. Have to at least have it stick around for some legitimate cold to enter in, but it’s not a bad look. -4 anoms isn’t terrible in late jan
 
NCSNOW said:
And early Kudos to the GEPS as it has been rock steady advertising. Not verified yet, but its getting support as we start getting inside 10 days now.
Click to expand...
GEPS and EPS have looked a little better than the GEFS over the last few days, but the GEFS is catching up. Trend loop here of the last 14 runs of the GEFS for Jan 23. Western ridge running up the W Canada coastline at the end of the loop is ideal placement for cold air delivery

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