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Pattern Jammin January 2023

NCHighCountryWX said:
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That changes drastically sometimes from day to day. They are already looking at the cold plunge
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I just can’t that get excited (yet) about a long range day 10+ pattern with a SE ridge lurking and huge +NAO speeding every northern stream trough (& associated cold air) along to the east (instead of holding them in place like -NAO would).

The only thing really going for this pattern in week 2 is high latitude blocking in the Beaufort & Chukchi Sea seeding the CONUS with cold air, so there’s at least an outside chance something shows up, but it’s still not a good pattern to be quite honest.

Not to mention, we still have a mean trough out west/-PNA. Takes threading the needle to a whole new level because the mean flow is very, very fast getting squeezed between the SE ridge and Hudson Bay vortex.

If you want to find modern examples of storms that showed up in patterns like this, Feb 1989 certainly has a few, and Feb 2020 has another one I can think of.
 
Again this wouldn’t be a pattern change but a stroke of good luck in a crappy pattern. ??‍♂️ probably won’t happen but it’s nice that we have the ability to track something right now in a pattern like this. Just don’t get your hopes up high at the moment.
 
Hey, just a small request:

When you post maps, would you please try and make sure the legend and the headers are included in the image? It would be really helpful to know if we're looking at dews, surface temps, 850 temps, etc. Thank you!
 
Rain Cold said:
Hey, just a small request:

When you post maps, would you please try and make sure the legend and the headers are included in the image? It would be really helpful to know if we're looking at dews, surface temps, 850 temps, etc. Thank you!
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and to piggy back on that: only kuchera maps, pls.
 
Snownut said:
Yeah upstate would be very much in play

Sent from my SM-A526U using Tapatalk
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Maybe not for snow, but certainly for ice or sleet. Hopefully sleet, but we are long overdue for ice and with that much cold air to the north to feed in, it might be a really bad one. Of course, it is way out there though.
 
Webberweather53 said:
I just can’t that get excited (yet) about a long range day 10+ pattern with a SE ridge lurking and huge +NAO speeding every northern stream trough (& associated cold air) along to the east (instead of holding them in place like -NAO would).

The only thing really going for this pattern in week 2 is high latitude blocking in the Beaufort & Chukchi Sea seeding the CONUS with cold air, so there’s at least an outside chance something shows up, but it’s still not a good pattern to be quite honest.

Not to mention, we still have a mean trough out west/-PNA. Takes threading the needle to a whole new level because the mean flow is very, very fast getting squeezed between the SE ridge and Hudson Bay vortex.

If you want to find modern examples of storms that showed up in patterns like this, Feb 1989 certainly has a few, and Feb 2020 has another one I can think of.
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But when day 15 maps show torch, it’s fair game??
 
rburrel2 said:
Looking pretty good to me for a snow threat… not necessarily buying the 100 year cold event.
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It doesn’t take 1000 year cold to get a good event down there! Just need cold enough. I’m excited for y’all down there and think the next 10 days hold a lot of promise!
 
Webberweather53 said:
I just can’t that get excited (yet) about a long range day 10+ pattern with a SE ridge lurking and huge +NAO speeding every northern stream trough (& associated cold air) along to the east (instead of holding them in place like -NAO would).

The only thing really going for this pattern in week 2 is high latitude blocking in the Beaufort & Chukchi Sea seeding the CONUS with cold air, so there’s at least an outside chance something shows up, but it’s still not a good pattern to be quite honest.

Not to mention, we still have a mean trough out west/-PNA. Takes threading the needle to a whole new level because the mean flow is very, very fast getting squeezed between the SE ridge and Hudson Bay vortex.

If you want to find modern examples of storms that showed up in patterns like this, Feb 1989 certainly has a few, and Feb 2020 has another one I can think of.
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Yeah… looking at the teleconnections, it’s just hard to imagine that there could be a legitimate threat in that timeframe.
 
Chazwin said:
Yeah… looking at the teleconnections, it’s just hard to imagine that there could be a legitimate threat in that timeframe.
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Joe Bastardi was citing the EPO and WPO as being favorable for big cold on his Saturday Summary
. I’m not sure if that’s factoring in to what the models are showing today. What do you think, @Webberweather53?
 
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