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Pattern Jammin January 2023

Got down to 27.9 in the heat island of Cary. It’s still very sketchy but this is the first time in a while where models at least agree on the main components of a storm in a specific time range. Now where those components set up. That’s a different story
 
Ideally we want the TPV situated around the border. This definitely favors the western and middle south areas like AR, W TENN, W MISS, and CAD areas of the Carolinas. But this would almost certainly be a repeat in terms of precip type from Jan 2022. Front end snow to ICE with a heavy emphasis on the ICE for a lot of folks including the mountains IF the current setup were to happen. Right now I am paying attention phase, but this could easily be a head fake and we just continue with the current pattern of cold rains. It's an easy path to a winter storm as the H5 pattern will have the SER for a fact with an active southern jet. It's all about the location of the TPV and keeping the really cold dry air feed around Quebec and the Northeast.
 
Invariably we will get a pants bulging SER at 12z to unleash the lemmings. The next few days of model runs won’t be for the faint of heart.
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iGRXY said:
Ideally we want the TPV situated around the border. This definitely favors the western and middle south areas like AR, W TENN, W MISS, and CAD areas of the Carolinas. But this would almost certainly be a repeat in terms of precip type from Jan 2022. Front end snow to ICE with a heavy emphasis on the ICE for a lot of folks including the mountains IF the current setup were to happen. Right now I am paying attention phase, but this could easily be a head fake and we just continue with the current pattern of cold rains. It's an easy path to a winter storm as the H5 pattern will have the SER for a fact with an active southern jet. It's all about the location of the TPV and keeping the really cold dry air feed around Quebec and the Northeast.
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This is definitely something that has to be absolutely perfect timing for this to work out and even then it’s pushing it. Like I said last night looking at the teleconnections for that timeframe, it’s just hard to imagine that this “potential” stays on the models inside 5 days out or so.
 
Chazwin said:
This is definitely something that has to be absolutely perfect timing for this to work out and even then it’s pushing it. Like I said last night looking at the teleconnections for that timeframe, it’s just hard to imagine that this “potential” stays on the models inside 5 days out or so.
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I'd expect the GEFS to start losing the cold coming east. It's now solidly predicting phase 4 of the MJO. Yesterday it seemed to want to weaken and maybe head to cod
 
Chazwin said:
This is definitely something that has to be absolutely perfect timing for this to work out and even then it’s pushing it. Like I said last night looking at the teleconnections for that timeframe, it’s just hard to imagine that this “potential” stays on the models inside 5 days out or so.
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I'd argue it doesn't have to be perfect timing. Especially for ice. The way things are modeled to be configured we will have several days of ideal high placement for CAD and the source region is true arctic air under the polar vortex. Even if a system is a little late to eject our way after the frontal passage we could still be looking at a severe ice storm.
 
LukeBarrette said:
Problem will be a little too much western dumpage. But the trough on the west coast is more east this run.
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Too much western dumpage like I said will give you this, although this isn't our timeframe. It's what is after this that makes more sense as the arctic air drops SEward.
 
DobsonCityWx said:
JB has had a rough year. Flagstaff getting a Top 2 winter and California has enough snowpack that will likely outlive him tbh.
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we've basically traded any shot we have at snow so that the Southwest to avoid/delay societal collapse from lack of water, was it worth it?
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
12z GFS ain’t pretty.
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Doesn’t look bad big high pressure moving in probably some sort of overrunning event will be shown. Again you aren’t going to get the same look every run 240 hours out .. that’s not how models work. The premise should be find the cold make sure it makes it through to the east and then look underneath for energy
 
Not far from a big dog on the CMC. Again still around D10 but models continue to dance all around the idea of cold with energy and moisture close by. I like our chances, regardless how small this window of opportunity may be

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Cary_Snow95 said:
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Both not good in their own ways as the new run is just a cool shot and thats it. The old run would set something up because of the western ridging. You know I'm still not sure why I'm keeping tabs on this. Better to look at ensembles.
 
We can't win. You would think this would be near a perfect setup. Of course this is fantasy land (especially being the GFS).

12z GFS at hour 300:
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FallsLake said:
We can't win. You would think this would near a perfect setup. Of course this is fantasy land (especially being the GFS).

12z GFS at hour 300:
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I love not seeing big perfect winter storms 200+ hours out because things will change. Again, no one should have their hopes up at all as the background pattern is bad and we should be getting consistent warmth with SER were getting lucky by even having a small window of opportunity in this pattern.
 
If you go back and and look at all the ensemble runs nothing has really changed with regard to timing for our best window. We're now around 228hrs from when the front pushes through if you average all the ensembles and we open up the window to score.

All this stuff the GFS has been showing and on off before that is very suspect and not surprisingly went away this run.

Being that our best window is still between 228-300hrs, we don't really have a hint of how the evolution will actually play out. All we can take away at this point is odds are good that we will have a very strong high pressure dominating the country with arctic air to tap into.Screen Shot 2023-01-24 at 12.10.38 PM.pngScreen Shot 2023-01-24 at 12.09.59 PM.pngScreen Shot 2023-01-24 at 12.09.33 PM.pngScreen Shot 2023-01-24 at 12.09.09 PM.pngScreen Shot 2023-01-24 at 12.08.22 PM.png
 
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