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Pattern Jammin January 2023

The Desert SW (AZ-TX) is likely to be at the base of the hypothesized Arctic Cold Snap later this month. It's been looking that way for awhile now.
 
GFS and HRRR similar looks....not the worst trend inside 48 hrs

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Major winter win for our area. Winter storm warmings hoisted

Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Graham-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Faust,
Mars Hill, Marshall, Walnut, Allenstand, Hot Springs, Luck,
Swiss, Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick,
Spruce Pine, Poplar, Alarka, Almond, Bryson City, Luada, Wesser,
Waynesville, Waterville, Canton, Cruso, Cove Creek, Robbinsville,
and Stecoah
340 AM EST Thu Jan 12 2023

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM
EST SATURDAY ABOVE 3500 FEET...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
7 AM EST SATURDAY BELOW 3500 FEET...

* WHAT...For the Winter Storm Warning, heavy snow expected. Total
snow accumulations of up to 9 inches. Winds gusting as high as
45 mph. For the Winter Weather Advisory, snow expected. Total
snow accumulations of up to 2 inches. Winds gusting as high as
40 mph.

* WHERE...The North Carolina mountain counties along the Tennessee
border.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 7 AM EST Saturday.
 
LONG RANGE: JAN 20-21 STILL ON CUE: The Eps and Geps look pretty Good: Gefs and CFS goo into SEE Saw affect with back an forth wild swings as we roll into February. All with a grain of boulder salt that far out.

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Fwiw the GEFS has a handful of members show some light accums in/around eastern NC/SC. With what the HRRR is showing and even the NAMs to an extent, I'd say the chances of a minor flizzard with the passage of the upper level energy has increased to at least 40%

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