Euro usually likes to hold energy back the most as a bias and is doing so the most out of all the models. Let’s see it’s ensembles first but even so, it does eject everything out east with time still
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Pattern Jammin January 2023
- Thread starter Goose88
- Start date
Cary_Snow95
Member
Lots of cold air over the top. Just need that wave to kick
Wtf? How is there a SER with the PV there and it that cold in the NE? Some years just mean they are not going to cooperate
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
So basically it doesn’t have a clue either
This was the last event here to produce anything over a minor accumulation. My only complaint is that it was gone the next day. Even though it can snow in crappy patterns it would be better if it happened when the cold could last longer than a day or two.May I? I know some of you have a proclivity to talk in absolutes which is never, in my opinion, very wise. I always reflect back on this particular event when people start cliff diving over the MJO and AO.
Not one or two factors are always important. I still say it is a crap shoot most of the time. Early Feb, 2020, we were in Phase 5 MJO (warmest on average phase for early Feb) with an AO index approaching a record, +6 which resulted in the following:
Looks to me some timing issues between the major models. Not an "if" but a "when" on cold arriving in the SE (at least for a short bit) somewhere around Feb 3rd-5th. Will we get a short wave after the front though? Who knows.
OK. Let's play the extrapolate the ten-day operational game.
That look screams ice storm for CAD areas 24-48 hours later.
That look screams ice storm for CAD areas 24-48 hours later.
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
If it ejects.OK. Let's play the extrapolate the ten-day operational game.
That look screams ice storm for CAD areas 24-48 hours later.
Sometimes they get stuck down there
That’s a lot of ridge to contend with..OK. Let's play the extrapolate the ten-day operational game.
That look screams ice storm for CAD areas 24-48 hours later.
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Cary_Snow95
Member
Big time cold dropping in on GFS
I get energy holding back would raise heights on the east coast. But that's a closed 588 ridge on steroids like you see with a jacked Aleutian ridge and a PV over Seattle. Not with a PV pressing down and ridging off the west coast. That's ridiculous and doesn't add up.
Lots of cold air over the top. Just need that wave to kick
Cary_Snow95
Member
I tend to agree. If a PV is in that location as shown then the ridge would not flex as far north as is being shown… and with the battleground between the two, there should be a significant storm
packfan98
Moderator
Looks like happy hour is going to throw out something at hour 282…
It may not need to though. SW flow aloft alone should do it so long as the arctic high to our NW keeps sliding ESE.
JHS
Member
Ice in the CAD regions on 2-5-2023 on the GFS.
If you’re going to dump out high pressures like that you’re going to be asking for some sort of CAD event to take hold eventually.
Getting that cutoff/trough into the GOAK around day 7-9 is key in this pattern to progressing it east.
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Still not a bad comparison to mid Feb 1989 on the 18z GEFS
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Sent from my SM-A136U1 using Tapatalk
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
500 mb patternStill not a bad comparison to mid Feb 1989 on the 18z GEFS
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Sent from my SM-A136U1 using Tapatalk
NCSNOW
Member
38/27. Stars
NCSNOW
Member
Last edited:
Legit
iGRXY
Member
Textbook Overrunning look hereThe EPS agrees too.
Yeah it’s like a kicker wave, but normally it’s kicking a shortwave. This is more like kicking the whole longwave trough over Canada to the east
Our windows of opportunity this winter have been so tight / quick. Kind of feels like this winter just needs to be ‘put out to pasture’. But we’ll keep watching
From Google for reference lol: The term being “put out to pasture” was once coined to describe tired old horses who were retired from their work and put out to the pasture to graze and wait quietly to die.
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
I'm trying to find a silver lining Grit lol, I'm an old snow weenie at heart from NC. I'll die with the rest of them. I also understand the reality of things not working out in the atmosphere to score. I just appreciate everyone trying to come to a common goal on this forum, but we end up getting our feelings hurt here in the south alot. Mother nature does what it does and there's nothing we can do about except to track it and hope for the best.
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NCSNOW
Member
It all runs in cycles. I hear a lot of talk, speculation how great the 80s where, sometines 90s. Reality is 2000- 2020ish where way better , save a couple seasons. No doubt 2000-2010 was best decade I observed and the 70s where pretty solid as well. But if you tally up, 2010-2019 actually has the most events for NC.
Use webbers NC log of events to see for yourself. Personally 2000-2004 where 3 of my top 4 storms I expierenced. I was fortunate to be in the mtns March 1993. 3 of those 4 had well over afoot of snow, the Ice storm of the century Dec 2002 makes the top 4 list. It was borderline catastrophic here in my county.
Heres the link. Has SC as well I beleive.
Use webbers NC log of events to see for yourself. Personally 2000-2004 where 3 of my top 4 storms I expierenced. I was fortunate to be in the mtns March 1993. 3 of those 4 had well over afoot of snow, the Ice storm of the century Dec 2002 makes the top 4 list. It was borderline catastrophic here in my county.
Heres the link. Has SC as well I beleive.
About
In order to create and maintain as long and reliable record of winter storms as possible in North and South Carolina, the following list of winter storm and seasonal snow/sleet maps for the states of...
www.webberweather.com
Oh I hear ya. We’re not far off here if we can get Fro’s kicker wave / trough to move west to east into the Gulf of AK and get the big Canadian trough to sag south just a bit. Winter trends haven’t been good to us though
The CMC Ens is always good for spitting out a few entertaining members (member in upper left with snow from Houston to Columbia, and ice in N FL lol)
There was another storm a few days before this one that brought significant ice/sleet/snow to much of the Carolinas as well. If I’m not mistaken, CLT got down to a low of 10 a day after this storm… 10 days earlier there had been a high of 80
It’s a tough pill to swallow right now but this is what we’re dealing with.. snowfall so far this winter. I still believe this map will looks slightly different come the end of the season with our best shot coming late February and early march but maybe it’s wishful thinking. We’re technically still one event away from having more snow on the season then New York or DC .. pretty crazy snow drought we’re all in.
What a crappy looking map though. I know it's the SE, and many people forget that, but damn....looks like crap.
Gotta go Snowfall % of Mean in order to fully feel the pain:
Winter pattern to date:
I don’t remember the last time Raleigh hasn’t had measurable snow in a winter…had to have been the 90’s. How about Charlotte?Gotta go Snowfall % of Mean in order to fully feel the pain:
Winter pattern to date:
Still got 5-6 weeks to fix that but getting nervous.
Stormlover
Member
going to look a lot different...it will even be different tomorrow...
ICON continues the trend of the 12Z EMCF and 18Z GFS of dropping that cutoff into California.
Is that good or bad so I can go ahead and go to bed.ICON continues the trend of the 12Z EMCF and 18Z GFS of dropping that cutoff into California.
Night night