Hate it for them.
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Pattern Jammin January 2023
- Thread starter Goose88
- Start date
3k has three concentrations of accumulations:
One near Little Washington
One near Lejeune
One near Pawleys Island, SC
One near Little Washington
One near Lejeune
One near Pawleys Island, SC
Crazy weenie thought I know, but one or more ticks in this direction and that vorticity lobe may actually cut off and EMCF members 5&17 that BullCityWX posted become reality. Speaking of the EMCF ensembles, I find it interesting that there are still some intriguing members at such a short range.
Would someone please post the earlier ensemble panels while the system is further west? ?
Are we reeling in a 48 hour upper level low snow ?! To see a couple euro ensembles with legit snow accumulation this far out is definitely eye opening. Will this continue who knows but I know upper level lows have a mind of their own
At least we are gaining some momentum towards something happening. I'm skeptical with such mediocre temps we do a lot but there's some potential to over perform and the BL becomes irrelevant to a degree
Hate to be that guy, but one would think the precip shield might even be a little more expansive than being modeled (if the SLP is as close as currently depicted on the NAMs) So I'm gonna say we see it shift at least one more time before reality kicks us in the jingle bells
ATLwxfan
Member
I’ll leave this here for the pooh-pooh’ers and debunkers.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Definite BL issues but the GFS continues to try and beef up moisture in the eastern sections
token flakes along the eastern piedmont/coastal plain probably has legs, upper level with definitely be cold enough. BL temps could be suspect but you already knew that.
question is how many nudges towards a more favorable orientation/tilt does do we have left in the tank, 48 hours out is pushing it
question is how many nudges towards a more favorable orientation/tilt does do we have left in the tank, 48 hours out is pushing it
2 but I need 3
iGRXY
Member
Serious wedge here. Cross Anchor in southern Spartanburg county and on the Laurens county border is currently at 63. Spartanburg is 54 and here at the house it's 50 with serious fog and mist. If only it was about 28 instead with the moisture coming.
rburrel2
Member
We toss the 12z GFS and hug the 12z CMC!
Stormsfury
Member
Trends this winter have been further west (by a lot lol) with several players so far this winter. I remember all those 70s and 80s storms that seemingly crop out of nowhere.
Who knows?
Have to love the expansiveness of this trend to cover more territory in NC. Have to see if it continues, levels off, or degrades away as we count down.Definite BL issues but the GFS continues to try and beef up moisture in the eastern sections
View attachment 129951
I had high hopes for a pattern change.
The last 36ish hours have been very discouraging though. CFS has dramatically warmed and the -PNA showing up on the modelling is just not good at all. If I dont see a change before Saturday, it may be time to punt further. If you look further out, however, the CFS is offering pretty chalk la nina climatology.
The last 36ish hours have been very discouraging though. CFS has dramatically warmed and the -PNA showing up on the modelling is just not good at all. If I dont see a change before Saturday, it may be time to punt further. If you look further out, however, the CFS is offering pretty chalk la nina climatology.