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Pattern Jammin January 2023

SnowNiner said:
Long range on the EPS does not look good, imo. The ridge is too far west, with a positive tilt that tucks the cold nicely in the west where it always wants to be. Atlantic ridge is large and in charge keeping the cold away.

Jet is starting to retract west of HI, like @griteater warned. Starting to think tropical forcing smacks us again. I'm pretty weary of a pattern change right now. ?

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If I were were a betting man this is where my money would go. This has pretty much been the dominant pattern for years now. Maybe we get a few days or week of bona-fide cold (2014, 2015, Jan 18, Dec 22) but it never lasts more than that. The trough in the West or maybe central US with ridge in the East has been the rule of the land. The last sustained cold I can remember was Dec to early Jan 2010-11.
 
Iceagewhereartthou said:
If I were were a betting man this is where my money would go. This has pretty much been the dominant pattern for years now. Maybe we get a few days or week of bona-fide cold (2014, 2015, Jan 18, Dec 22) but it never lasts more than that. The trough in the West or maybe central US with ridge in the East has been the rule of the land. The last sustained cold I can remember was Dec to early Jan 2010-11.
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Or, another way to look at it is rather than persistence, the SE is overdue for a persistent stretch of wintry weather.

My money is on an initial central CONUS cold that finally spreads east behind a powerful App runner. Then we see if one or more suppressed systems can bring the goods with that persistent SW flow nearby. That said, I'd rather be in Mississippi, Alabama, or Tennessee rather than east of the mountains.
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
Or, another way to look at it is rather than persistence, the SE is overdue for a persistent stretch of wintry weather.

My money is on an initial central CONUS cold that finally spreads east behind a powerful App runner. Then we see if one or more suppressed systems can bring the goods with that persistent SW flow nearby. That said, I'd rather be in Mississippi, Alabama, or Tennessee rather than east of the mountains.
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Wondering if that 10day euro storm is the app runner table setter.

Also not to go all hi res on you but 'Between' is really halfway "between" Monroe and Loganville as the map flies. :)
 
CaryWx said:
Wondering if that 10day euro storm is the app runner table setter.

Also not to go all hi res on you but 'Between' is really halfway "between" Monroe and Loganville as the map flies. :)
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LOL. Yes, last year the mods were like where are you? And like an old Laurel and Hardy skit, I'd say between. ?

And yes, the EURO does hint at it and if somehow that was to verify at day ten, the next disturbance is teed up in the pacific NW it looks to me. Canadian has a similar solution too. The GFS, well it's the GFS beyond 72 hours.
 
Rah NWS is on board, giddy up! Lol

Dropping temperatures with the CAA will lower our overnight lows to
the upper 20s to low/middle 30s. The latest track of the upper-low
(good DPVA over eastern sections of central NC) would favor a
changeover from rain to snow late Fri night and early Sat, roughly
along/east of US-1, over the eastern Piedmont, Sandhills, and
central/southern Coastal Plain. Precipitation type nomograms and
forecast soundings show the thermal profile increasingly favoring
light snow or flurries by this time frame as the thicknesses (1000-
850 mb 1290m line and 850-700 mb 1540m contour) sag as far south and
east as the NC coast. The 12Z ECMWF has come in line with the
GFS/CMC/HREF as well. As a result, we added a chance of rain
changing to snow in this area late Fri night. Amounts are expected
to be light, roughly a trace to a dusting at best given above
freezing ground temperatures.
 
BIG FROSTY said:
12z Euro - Only 10 days out!!! Mountain special..... We got time to work on temps east of the mountains.
prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp.conus.png
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CFS is showing a potential as well. Big difference is low position:

1673556907775.png
 
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