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Pattern Jammin January 2023

Difference here at day 8 between the Euro (1st image) and Euro Control (2nd image)

Euro places more emphasis on the Great Lakes shortwave and squashes the wave in the SW, so it progresses as a cold frontal passage. Euro Control has a sort of perfect timing scenario of separating the 2 streams with the Great Lakes shortwave not being as strong and getting it out front just a bit, with the SW wave being separate and more robust

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Here's the difference between the 2 at the surface at day 9 (Euro 1st / Euro Control 2nd)

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The 12 GFS was a sort of extreme version of the Euro Control where it also kept a stronger wave in the SW, but it buries it a bit, and it comes out a touch slower, so the surface high is moving off the NE coast during the 2nd half of the storm

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Greensboro avg so far : 54.5 /37.0. Which makes for a mean temp 6.2 degrees above average. Though this January is nothing compared to January 1907 up to this point . That month at this time was averaging 64/41 ! This was well over 110 years ago. They don’t make warm Jan’s like they used to . Don’t know how but Greensboro finished that month 2 degrees warmer than Raleigh. Our warmest January record is definitely breakable . Hopefully I see that in my lifetime. Warmest jan for RDU was in 1950 with an average high of 62.3, for Greensboro it was 1907 with an average high of 60.6
 
Wouldn't get excited until at least 5 days away. We definitely not going to put plows on anytime soon as we have seen this scenario a couple of times already this winter.
 
As one would expect, there has been absolutely no consistency in the GFS. Last six runs for 18z next Thursday. On to the ensembles.

This model makes it very difficult to stay sane at times, especially when you have booked a vacation in the mountains with friends during this time period (as I have). Will it rain the entire time? Will it get cold or stay warm? Will it snow? A shame it has to run 4 times a day.
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POWERSTROKE said:
Wouldn't get excited until at least 5 days away. We definitely not going to put plows on anytime soon as we have seen this scenario a couple of times already this winter.
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Hopefully it’s just 1-2 or a mixed bag that doesn’t require any plowing. Or a warm up the next day so no one has to pay for that crap.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
You’re just not going to get a snowstorm with a ridge poking it’s head in like that. I’m sorry guys. Maybe we beat it back over the next 10 days of modeling but I wouldn’t hang my hat on it. I’m hopeful but damn. I mean damn
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This is not a snowstorm pattern. We only have 2-3 days to realistically score then we will go back to warmth. We probably won’t beat back the SER after this for a little while. I’m still thinking late February and early march we will see a much more favorable time period where we can see a legit chance that has more “legs” but you know if ur holding out hope for late in the game winter it’s been a bad winter
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
This is not a snowstorm pattern. We only have 2-3 days to realistically score then we will go back to warmth. We probably won’t beat back the SER after this for a little while. I’m still thinking late February and early march we will see a much more favorable time period where we can see a legit chance that has more “legs” but you know if ur holding out hope for late in the game winter it’s been a bad winter
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What are we basing this late feb early March change on? Was this assuming a SSWE (which hasn’t happened)? Just curious.


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Looking at the individual runs of the GFS is a fools errand, especially out past 72 hours. It would be okay with me if we only post maps in the medium range from the GEFS, EPS and GEPS with an occasional Icon deterministic ECMWF and UKMET. GFS for most folks just ends up being the Lucy and Charlie Brown football kick in our old sackaroos
 
ATLwxfan said:
What are we basing this late feb early March change on? Was this assuming a SSWE (which hasn’t happened)? Just curious.


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Even without a SSWE, we can follow patterns of LaNinas breaking down and leading to colder periods in late February and March. 2009 is a great example of that.
 
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It would be interesting to do a poll to see who would want to be in the wedge and who would want to be in the orange. I think i know how a few would answer. Without a doubt, I would want to be in the wedge here; keep 60s and especially 70s as far away from me as possible in the heart of "winter."
 
Seems pointless to even look at anything past 5 days with the way things change run to run on the models in the long range. Probably should post this in the whamby thread, but it's locked. Someone buzz me if we ever get an actual storm on the models inside 7 days.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Seems pointless to even look at anything past 5 days with the way things change run to run on the models in the long range. Probably should post this in the whamby thread, but it's locked. Someone buzz me if we ever get an actual storm on the models inside 7 days.
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nothing beyond 5 days exactly and thats even a stretch
 
Oh, and if you don't believe something is different, WRAL met Kat Campbell had this little fact posted on Facebook tonight.

7 out of the past 10 Januarys have had at least one severe storm warning in Raleigh. Only 5 out of 10 have had at least one day with 1 inch of snow.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Oh, and if you don't believe something is different, WRAL met Kat Campbell had this little fact posted on Facebook tonight.

7 out of the past 10 Januarys have had at least one severe storm warning in Raleigh. Only 5 out of 10 have had at least one day with 1 inch of snow.
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I mean the early 90s had 3 consecutive years of 0 snow for the season in Raleigh.
 
Iceagewhereartthou said:
View attachment 131332
It would be interesting to do a poll to see who would want to be in the wedge and who would want to be in the orange. I think i know how a few would answer. Without a doubt, I would want to be in the wedge here; keep 60s and especially 70s as far away from me as possible in the heart of "winter."
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I’m perfectly tucked in the low 50’s. Yes please
 
Iceagewhereartthou said:
View attachment 131332
It would be interesting to do a poll to see who would want to be in the wedge and who would want to be in the orange. I think i know how a few would answer. Without a doubt, I would want to be in the wedge here; keep 60s and especially 70s as far away from me as possible in the heart of "winter.
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Depends on the situation.
Is it sunny? Then I'll take 60+
Is it raining? Give me the 40's & 50's.
Doesn't matter what I want,
I'm in the heart of CAD & I'll be in the much colder sector.
NG is much higher than in recent years,
If we are not going get any winter weather.
Give me some warmer temps to save on my heating bills.
 
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