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Pattern Jammin January 2023

Iceagewhereartthou said:
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It would be interesting to do a poll to see who would want to be in the wedge and who would want to be in the orange. I think i know how a few would answer. Without a doubt, I would want to be in the wedge here; keep 60s and especially 70s as far away from me as possible in the heart of "winter."
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Pretty interesting this is very close to what actually happened today, at least in SC. GSP had a high of 45, CAE 66, CHS 74!
 

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Is this good?
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The good news (if you can call it that) will be once the Feb 3rd-5th forecast gets resolved we very likely will have a few weeks with zero potential for winter wx to even discuss
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
Is this good?
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Look closely you can see the top edge of the precip is blue in northern AL/GA. If the 1048 moved in tandem with the precip, or even held firm, there would likely be a lot of frozen in the northern fringe. That's a HUGE moisture feed too. Not sure about the speed of the precip feild or the column temps, but just verbatim that's a classic look you hope to see.
 
Iceagewhereartthou said:
Look closely you can see the top edge of the precip is blue in northern AL/GA. If the 1048 moved in tandem with the precip, or even held firm, there would likely be a lot of frozen in the northern fringe. That's a HUGE moisture feed too. Not sure about the speed of the precip feild or the column temps, but just verbatim that's a classic look you hope to see.
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LOL. That was tongue-in-cheek. I'll take that look and cash out tonight.
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
And, that gorgeous high should be crawling ESE from what is shown at 180.
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You can thank that stronger cold push for the further south high pressure. No way that high can resist that large of a cold air mass. Creates the perfect overrunning setup too. Would be nice to see show up with other model runs.
 
Iceagewhereartthou said:
That low is already neutral, we wouldn't want that to go negative for a long time yet or we get the cut with tropical air treatment. Keep it neutral and low. Always a fine line.
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I would think it would tend to stay neutral or even weaken as it continues east into that wnw-oriented confluence.

Speculation off a 180-hour model is of course whamby worthy, but there it is anyway.
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
I would think it would tend to stay neutral or even weaken as it continues east into that wnw-oriented confluence.

Speculation off a 180-hour model is of course whamby worthy, but there it is anyway.
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Yea, it's a perfect map... you couldn't draw it up any better for CAD area's. Probably mostly sleet and freezing rain from Atlanta to Columbia... but would be mostly snow along and north of 85, maybe changing to sleet and freezing rain later on... as depicted it was setting up to be a prolonged 24-36hr event.
 
I know nobody cares but the GFS looks a helluva better
 
LukeBarrette said:
Maybe not, I’m going to shut the f up
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Whether iT shows a storm or not I think we’re heading into the right direction with the storm kicking out faster and there for making the initial storm push have much more moisture
. This is what most of the ensembles have looked like so we will see how it rolls through but can’t hate the way we’re headed tonight. Still long way to go
 
Increase in wintry members in the GEPS .. still some support on the GEFS from the same amount of members that have had the event all day and now the euro coming in with a CAD event .. if the high pressure can come in quicker than it’s an even bigger deal. Slow steps but I like that we’re trending this way closer under 200 hours now
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Increase in wintry members in the GEPS .. still some support on the GEFS from the same amount of members that have had the event all day and now the euro coming in with a CAD event .. if the high pressure can come in quicker than it’s an even bigger deal. Slow steps but I like that we’re trending this way closer under 200 hours now
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I mean a actual 1045 high over NE usually is bank for NC at least....need the low track further south so we get more blue and less red/pink on the map....if that low off the coast the last several frames was 100 miles further east it would help a lot. Still its 10 days out so the big take away is the models trending to strong high over NE that actually hangs out a few days....
 
Euro has 23-27 degree freezing rain for the piedmont of NC .. yeah again we’re much closer to a CAD event then people may try to make you believe in here.
 
Downeastnc said:
I mean a actual 1045 high over NE usually is bank for NC at least....need the low track further south so we get more blue and less red/pink on the map....if that low off the coast the last several frames was 100 miles further east it would help a lot. Still its 10 days out so the big take away is the models trending to strong high over NE that actually hangs out a few days....
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Yep only reason GFS didn’t show anything was cause it doesn’t see the high pressure at all.. a lot of the GEPS members I saw had a pretty droid high pressure but in all different locations and all different timings as well. Which makes for different events. ICON was the most beautiful in regards to timing though
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Euro has 23-27 degree freezing rain for the piedmont of NC .. yeah again we’re much closer to a CAD event then people may try to make you believe in here.
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Not trying to be negative, but as good as that high looks, what’s to keep it from sliding out too quickly. It just looks to me like we’re relying on absolute perfect timing and 9 days out we know that usually goes.
 
Chazwin said:
Not trying to be negative, but as good as that high looks, what’s to keep it from sliding out too quickly. It just looks to me like we’re relying on absolute perfect timing and 9 days out we know that usually goes.
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No -NAO so nothing to lock in place from a traditional sense, but the 50/50 region is beautiful. Also, and this is a big key, you need timing obviously, but if you have a 1040+ HP the effects will tend to hold on much longer even as the High slides off because of the cold air associated with it in Canada and the CAA from the 50/50 and In-situ CAD. But that is crucial because while we do have snowpack in the Northeast it's situated in the western Northeast like Upstate NY and not the entire region. I tend to be on your side about timing, but your margin for error is a little better in a sense because we aren't working with stagnate cold air in Canada and the CAA feed from the 50/50 region is so large.
 
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