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Pattern Jammin January 2023

Looks like Jan will end on a warm note.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_64.png
 
Best flake action so far is in Wolf laurel, Waynesville. Even seeing some fly in Black Mountain. Just getting underway, Beech, Sugar are gonna have guns on, cameras frozen, so its hard to tell. No doubt Madison,Yancey, Mitchell, Haywood counties on TN line will rack up. Perfect angle for this one as the wind heading is right where you want it
 
The EPS and Canadian Ensembles are in lock step advertising big Cold/Nice deep trough rolling in here by next weekend. GFS Op is on another planet. The Gefs wants to park the trough out west past next weekend and the other ens suites stay east.

Just watch today how the GFS Op performs short range. Here it is at 6z hot off the press, Down East royal rumble today. Only model painting this much accum. The short range Nam, HWRF spit a dusting around a county or 2. The Canadian short range and euro are a nada burger.

sn10_acc-imp.us_ma.png
 
NCSNOW said:
The EPS and Canadian Ensembles are in lock step advertising big Cold/Nice deep trough rolling in here by next weekend. GFS Op is on another planet. The Gefs wants to park the trough out west past next weekend and the other ens suites stay east.

Just watch today how the GFS Op performs short range. Here it is at 6z hot off the press, Down East royal rumble today. Only model painting this much accum. The short range Nam, HWRF spit a dusting around a county or 2. The Canadian short range and euro are a nada burger.

sn10_acc-imp.us_ma.png
Click to expand...
Even the teleconnections look a little better this morning. The MJO looks like it wants to take a slower progression through phases 1/2, the AO stays clearly negative, the NAO is tries to dip slightly negative, and the PNA stays slightly positive.
 
WWA issued for the usual suspects in N. Ga.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
339 AM EST Fri Jan 13 2023

GAZ005>009-013>016-132000-
/O.NEW.KFFC.WW.Y.0001.230113T1200Z-230114T0800Z/
Murray-Fannin-Gilmer-Union-Towns-Pickens-Dawson-Lumpkin-White-
Including the cities of Dahlonega and Cleveland
339 AM EST Fri Jan 13 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO
3 AM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of up to two
inches in the highest elevations. Winds gusting as high as 35
mph.

* WHERE...Portions of the North Georgia Mountains, primarily above
1500 feet in elevation, located in north central and northeast
Georgia.

* WHEN...From 7 AM this morning to 3 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Primary impacts are expected to occur in
areas above 1500 feet in elevation where Friday morning
temperatures will be colder and effects of wintry precip will
be felt sooner. Conditions could deteriorate rapidly around and
after sundown where temperatures will quickly drop below
freezing, allowing wintry precip to stick more efficiently and
any melted snow to freeze on surfaces and roadways.
 
SD said:
Gfs soundings are impressive but not supported by other models. Itd be nice to see something else jump on board at 12z even if we had to fight some BL issues View attachment 130062
Click to expand...
Yeah I thought NWS was rather bullish but then again there is a little support from the RAP (fwiw) and the HRRR, at least as far as getting precip goes. I feel confident there will be heavy enough precip in a small band to at least produce a rn/sn mix, maybe even switch to all sn briefly. Just my gut but I think that favors central NC to the SE sector (Durham, Wake, Johnston, Harnett). Small area lol

HRRR says a few counties NW of what I just listed, so we shall see. Nowcast time (almost)
 
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