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Pattern Jammin January 2023

Just an observation but check out how much cloud cover there is across the country; pretty dreary day for a lot of folks!

20230251926_GOES16-ABI-CONUS-GEOCOLOR-2500x1500.jpg
 
12z EC control run just nuked NC and VA with what I am assuming is severe freezing rain along the NC/SC border from say Forest City to Rockingham with what is likely 3-5” of snow with half a foot of probably sleet from Wilkesboro to Durham. 20” of snow for @ILMRoss in RIC.
 
BullCityWx said:
12z EC control run just nuked NC and VA with what I am assuming is severe freezing rain along the NC/SC border from say Forest City to Rockingham with what is likely 3-5” of snow with half a foot of probably sleet from Wilkesboro to Durham. 20” of snow for @ILMRoss in RIC.
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pictures?
 
Regardless of all the commentary back and forth today about any upcoming winter weather, there certainly looks to be a short wave in the Feb 3rd-5th timeframe across the SE. More than fropa I think. Will it be snow, sleet, zr, or just plain cold rain? Who knows.
 
Man, a big 1045+ HP dropping into Iowa with some energy in and around the southern tier, what's not to like? Might not work out, but give me an arctic high nearby and some moisture nearby and I will take that every single day. Personally, I'm happy that we have something nice to look at and talk about other than see who can post the maps with the deepest oranges and reds.
 
BullCityWx said:
12z EC control run just nuked NC and VA with what I am assuming is severe freezing rain along the NC/SC border from say Forest City to Rockingham with what is likely 3-5” of snow with half a foot of probably sleet from Wilkesboro to Durham. 20” of snow for @ILMRoss in RIC.
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i will NOT get excited over a 200hr euro control run
 
Alright, so we are at hour 216 when the below average temperatures begin to take over parts of the South & are working their way into the Carolinas and the rest of the Southeast.

Let's see if we can get this inside 200 then continue to work our way into the medium range. ecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-t2m_f_anom-5425600.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-t2m_f_dprog-5425600.png
 
Rain Cold said:
Man, a big 1045+ HP dropping into Iowa with some energy in and around the southern tier, what's not to like? Might not work out, but give me an arctic high nearby and some moisture nearby and I will take that every single day. Personally, I'm happy that we have something nice to look at and talk about other than see who can post the maps with the deepest oranges and reds.
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Roll the dice every day with that. I don’t care about the pattern before or after. Yes, it’s literally like trying to throw a bullseye dart from 100 yards in this pattern but I think it has legs for now.
 
Less than 10% of the EPS has legit snow in the Carolinas & GA from this system at day 9-10. Much more likely to be warm/wet w/ the storm shooting off to the NW, cold/dry w/ any hope of a storm well offshore to the SE, or icy if before you have a sniff at snow. If you manage to get the cold air in place before the precip ramps up, then I'd lean towards ice over snow. Oth, that's generally not what's being shown on the few ensemble member solutions that depict a winter storm at this range (the CAD high is well off to the west). Those kind of ice storm setups, where precip is already falling & cold air filters in as this occurs, can work over the southern Plains of TX & OK, but often bust (on the low end) east of the Appalachians.
 
Webberweather53 said:
As much as I don't like to post something like this so far out, I think the EPS control from today hammers home the point about how razor thin the margin of error is in this pattern to score a winter storm.

View attachment 131304
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Really cold airmass. Filled with lots of promise. ?
 
Webberweather53 said:
As much as I don't like to post something like this so far out, I think the EPS control from today hammers home the point about how razor thin the margin of error is in this pattern to score a winter storm.

View attachment 131304
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Is that I-85 or 0C? Lol. That’s textbook NC wintry look.
 
If you want something solid, key here is pinching energy off the cold and progressive northern stream trough, getting that pinched off energy to amplify around The SW/texas and close off, have the N/S trough speed up thanks to the GOAK energy giving the “kick”, and then have a trailing wave move in when the N/S trough is moving off and we’re left with the cold high associated with it. Very icy route but probably the best route you could take in this pattern. What’s more favored is stream attachment, and overrunning with possible wintry in western SE/warm eastern SE
 
Man this look is lovely; Incredible moisture feed with banana high present. I'd like to see that 1029 a tick higher with the precip feed 50-100 miles further south.

834beeae-987a-4f22-9a3a-b9be1794212b-png.131303


Unfortunately, despite the beautiful look, the cold is still marginal for many. This map is the cold push 12 hours later, still not cold enough for most south of I-40 and still not down to 85.
capture-jpg.131304


Verbatim this is an I-40 and North job with just small amounts elsewhere, illustrating what the above images portray.
ecmwf-ensemble-c00-conus-total_snow_10to1-5512000-png.131298

For AL/GA/SC we need that trough to sharpen up and dig a bit more with a stronger cold push. Going to be hard to manage but it is possible; definitely work keeping eyes on, but still a long way out.
 
Iceagewhereartthou said:
Man this look is lovely; Incredible moisture feed with banana high present. I'd like to see that 1029 a tick higher with the precip feed 50-100 miles further south.

834beeae-987a-4f22-9a3a-b9be1794212b-png.131303


Unfortunately, despite the beautiful look, the cold is still marginal for many. This map is the cold push 12 hours later, still not cold enough for most south of I-40 and still not down to 85.
capture-jpg.131304


Verbatim this is an I-40 and North job with just small amounts elsewhere, illustrating what the above images portray.
ecmwf-ensemble-c00-conus-total_snow_10to1-5512000-png.131298

For AL/GA/SC we need that trough to sharpen up and dig a bit more with a stronger cold push. Going to be hard to manage but it is possible; definitely work keeping eyes on, but still a long way out.
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That's because it was a huge Ice storm for everyone south of I40 on that control run. Temps in the mid 20's for most.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
If you want something solid, key here is pinching energy off the cold and progressive northern stream trough, getting that pinched off energy to amplify around The SW/texas and close off, have the N/S trough speed up thanks to the GOAK energy giving the “kick”, and then have a trailing wave move in when the N/S trough is moving off and we’re left with the cold high associated with it. Very icy route but probably the best route you could take in this pattern. What’s more favored is stream attachment, and overrunning with possible wintry in western SE/warm eastern SE
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It would have a chance of being epic, all else being equal, if could manage to get the Hudson Bay vortex to ease down to the south side rather than retreating north too.
 
Webberweather53 said:
As much as I don't like to post something like this so far out, I think the EPS control from today hammers home the point about how razor thin the margin of error is in this pattern to score a winter storm.

View attachment 131304
Click to expand...
That honestly reminds me of the temperature gradient during the February 1994 Ice Storm…below freezing for the western SE and then the CAD in western and central Carolinas with a sharp turn to very warm across southern GA and AL… parts of Florida was pushing 90 during that storm.
 
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