Pattern Jammin January 2023

[ATLwxfan]

Impressive resilient SER on 12z GFS after this weekend. Texas primed for the icebox at the end of the run. La Niña conditions going strong for us.


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[CaryWx]

The GFS has never been our friend here in that LR regard. Let's see what the 12z euro has to say

 

[SnowNiner]

Long range on the EPS does not look good, imo. The ridge is too far west, with a positive tilt that tucks the cold nicely in the west where it always wants to be. Atlantic ridge is large and in charge keeping the cold away.

Jet is starting to retract west of HI, like @griteater warned. Starting to think tropical forcing smacks us again. I'm pretty weary of a pattern change right now. ?

 

[FallsLake]

Definitely know better than to take stock in the LR model outputs, but the end of the 12z GFS actually looks good to me. You would think there would be a lot of undercutting of the cold coming down from the NW. This is where a battle between the SER and very cold air could make for some interesting times.

Dew points on day 16:

 

[ATLwxfan]

Long range on the EPS does not look good, imo. The ridge is too far west, with a positive tilt that tucks the cold nicely in the west where it always wants to be. Atlantic ridge is large and in charge keeping the cold away.

Jet is starting to retract west of HI, like @griteater warned. Starting to think tropical forcing smacks us again. I'm pretty weary of a pattern change right now.

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View attachment 129964

Not until Nina loosens it’s grip in March or April. The only thing worse than a warm winter is a cold spring.


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[tennessee storm]

Not until Nina loosens it’s grip in March or April. The only thing worse than a warm winter is a cold spring.


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Maybe we go straight into spring

 

[DobsonCityWx]

The pattern is so bad the ski resorts in Cali are closing because of too much snow.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Yikes!

 

[SD]

I'd gladly take 5 more days of warmth if it meant we were going here and where this eventually would land.
You want a board wide overrunning winter storm? This will get you there

 

[BullCityWx]

Euro has less qpf for Saturday this run. We flew too close to the sun.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Chance for some major league totals along border counties..newfound gap sweet spot. 441 will be shut down for quite a while. I’ve always wanted to ride one of these out up top

 

[SD]

Euro has less qpf for Saturday this run. We flew too close to the sun.

Congrats Wake

 

[jackendrickwx]

 

[Stevo24]

I'd gladly take 5 more days of warmth if it meant we were going here and where this eventually would land.
You want a board wide overrunning winter storm? This will get you there
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Yes but IS this where we are gonna land?

 

[CaryWx]

Bullseye only 48hrs out! Not sure if serious. It jumps around every run with these handful of flakes.

 

[BIG FROSTY]

Y'all buckle up now ya hear! lol

 

[BullCityWx]

Y'all buckle up now ya hear! lol

if it's a weak el nino then lets ride ?

 

[SD]

Yes but IS this where we are gonna land?

In some form yes, there are a number of possibilities on the table here. Like i said before I'd like this pattern a lot more if I was in MS, AL, LA, TN, VA where they can benefit from a displaced western ridge and slight SER response. For us in the Carolinas we need some suppression help whether it's from the pac ridge being east of models, a -nao, or pulling a cold vortex southeast and parking it north of the Great lakes. The op gfs was about the check the last 2 boxes to an extent.

 

[SD]

Euro is a classic track but cold air is meh

 

[BIG FROSTY]

12z Euro - Only 10 days out!!! Mountain special..... We got time to work on temps east of the mountains.