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Pattern Jammin January 2023

People around here should have enough sense to know anytime you got a legitimate CAD setup with overrunning like the way this us headed, Those CAD areas of upstate and NC gets Ice Storms. Don't need no pattern change either. Not sure why folks keep harping on Patterns you don't need a perfect pattern for ICE just need a Strong high pressure to North locking in cold and moisture over riding that. Just wait and see if that's not what we see in the coming weeks

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Aside from the trough itself changing a ton from run-to-run upstream out west, you're gonna have a real hard time lining everything up w/ how fast the northern stream is gonna be next week. Without high-latitude blocking, there's really nothing to hold the 50-50 low in place. hence, your window to squeeze out a winter storm is a lot smaller than it normally is for CAD events around here.

Despite what other posters on here keep saying (probably out of being in denial of reality), patterns do in fact matter, a lot.
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
33 and rain for Atlanta- Athens. It seems the GFS has finally figured it out lol.

gfs_T2m_seus_36.png
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This might trend colder which I don't want it too!
 
Webberweather53 said:
Aside from the trough itself changing a ton from run-to-run upstream out west, you're gonna have a real hard time lining everything up w/ how fast the northern stream is gonna be next week. Without high-latitude blocking, there's really nothing to hold the 50-50 low in place. hence, your window to squeeze out a winter storm is a lot smaller than it normally is for CAD events around here.

Despite what other posters on here keep saying (probably out of being in denial of reality), patterns do in fact matter, a lot.
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Reality is reality when the verification hour hits 0. It is not reality 200 hours out nor is warmth 200 hours out.
 
The Canadian doesn't show the same look as the GFS for day 8. Basically, cold chasing rain. It then shows this at day 10 with a very cold/dry CAD setup:

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ForsythSnow said:
Doesn't dictate what happens 200 hours from now. We will see reality 200 hours from now for 200 hours from now.
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Put lipstick on a pig all you want, but when you stick a trough out west in the means and couple that w/ a +NAO, your chances of getting a winter storm are lower than they normally would be in the SE US, particularly for the Carolinas & GA. Period, end of story.

Can you get a storm? Sure. Can you cherry pick this one or few time(s) "x" number of years ago where it snowed in your backyard when "y" & "z" unfavorable things happened? Sure, and I gave you examples of that, but it absolutely doesn't take away from my main point that this pattern in general just isn't good.

I love seeing all the cold air driving into the CONUS, and that is the only thing that's positive about this pattern, but outside of that, it stinks.

Yes, it's hard to get a winter storm here in the south, anyone that's lived here as long as I did could tell you that obvious fact of life, but it's even harder with the hand we're being dealt. That's my point.
 
Snownut said:
Be careful what you wish far, That is not far off here especially in the CAD areas

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In the past we've had more CADs tend stronger, than not, leading up to an event. Especially for the NE Ga and upstate.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Put lipstick on a pig all you want, but when you stick a trough out west in the means and couple that w/ a +NAO, your chances of getting a winter storm are lower than they normally would be in the SE US, particularly for the Carolinas & GA. Period, end of story.

Can you get a storm? Sure. Can you cherry pick this one or few time(s) "x" number of years ago where it snowed in your backyard when "y" & "z" unfavorable things happened? Sure, and I gave you examples of that, but it absolutely doesn't take away from my main point that this pattern in general just isn't good.

I love seeing all the cold air driving into the CONUS, and that is the only thing that's positive about this pattern, but outside of that, it stinks.

Yes, it's hard to get a winter storm here in the south, anyone that's lived here as long as I did could tell you that obvious fact of life, but it's even harder with the hand we're being dealt. That's my point.
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My point is simple, 200 hours from now we don't know until 200 hours have passed. Who's right or wrong does not matter at all, it's just observation then. People can have whatever fun or disappointment they see tracking it along the way. There's no harm and they learn or don't learn what could or could not happen. The current and past does not mean the future is the same.
 
ForsythSnow said:
My point is simple, 200 hours from now we don't know until 200 hours have passed. There is no who's right or wrong, it's just observation then. People can have whatever fun or disappointment they see tracking it along the way. There's no harm and they learn or don't learn what could or could not happen. The current and past does not mean the future is the same.
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One point that some don't understand (not talking about you) is there's more to Predicting weather than just what the Models show. Some harps on how bad the pattern is based on a model that's more than 10 days out, yet comes on here and bashes people that post maps showing winter weather 10 days out. I've never understood him and Never will!

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ForsythSnow said:
My point is simple, 200 hours from now we don't know until 200 hours have passed. There is no who's right or wrong, it's just observation then. People can have whatever fun or disappointment they see tracking it along the way. There's no harm and they learn or don't learn what could or could not happen. The current and past does not mean the future is the same.
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If you or someone else don't like my takes on here, there's an ignore button.
 
Snownut said:
One point that some don't understand (not talking about you) is there's more to Predicting weather than just what the Models show. Some harps on how bad the pattern is based on a model that's more than 10 days out, yet comes on here and bashes people that post maps showing winter weather 10 days out. I've never understood him and Never will!

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Because patterns and the planetary-scale processes that dictate them, evolve a lot (like orders of magnitude) more slowly than individual winter storms & meso-microscale dynamics of winter storms do, and are much more predictable with net skill at those ranges. Focus on what you can predict/control at the timescales relevant to what you're looking at. No one should be concerned about the intricate mesoscale dynamics of rain-snow lines or individual QLCSs 7-10 days out, because in today's day & age, you won't be able to predict that with any consistent accuracy day in and out. Oth, continental-planetary scale circulation pattern changes? Totally different animal/apples-oranges.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Gefs doesn’t really look like the GFS. Pretty classic western SE mix bag look though View attachment 131264View attachment 131265
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The GFS has been wild with the swings but with the GEFS and CMC being pretty stable over many runs, I'd bet on something around that solution being the direction we head. The EPS seems more intense with the SER like the CMC early on but progresses out of that after and is also stable.
 
prateptype_cat-imp.conus.png


So a 1040 South of Chicago should be plenty cold enough for many of us to snow. Either the cold source is very marginal or the model is wonky. Looking at the temps though, it appears the cold source is just not very cold.

gfs_T2m_us_34.png


gfs_T850_us_34.png


This is where you want the Greenland block setting up just before to send all that true cold south; here it just gets shunted towards Greenland. There always seems to be a monkey wrench.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Aside from the trough itself changing a ton from run-to-run upstream out west, you're gonna have a real hard time lining everything up w/ how fast the northern stream is gonna be next week. Without high-latitude blocking, there's really nothing to hold the 50-50 low in place. hence, your window to squeeze out a winter storm is a lot smaller than it normally is for CAD events around here.

Despite what other posters on here keep saying (probably out of being in denial of reality), patterns do in fact matter, a lot.
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I think we need a support group lol.


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crawford76 said:
For those getting super antsy about winter weather(esp where we receive very little), shoot up to Beech Mountain above 6000'. After a week you'll be praying for Spring lol
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I can agree with this, I've never really understood how people could like frigid Temps and snow cover for days on end. Sure it's nice to have one decent snow around here but after that bring on warm where you can get out and do stuff and enjoy it without 10 layers of clothes on

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GEFS look pretty solid with some overrunning over western SE and even NC .. I like that the euro ensembles also agree with that sort of solution. I’ll still continue to not expect anything out of this as no one should but I can’t hate on the trends at possibly seeing some sort of winter weather in this set up. (Not a winter storm but maybe some winter weather before a return to SER)
 
The Driest January on record was in 1947 at Greensboro 0.00 wow

wettest was a whopping 19.89 in 1973. That seems as extreme to me as the goose egg in 1947. Normal is 2.67. Airport is over 4 so far. Way less than I thought . But man 19 inches in January???
 
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