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Pattern Jammin January 2023

GEPS says by, by torch.
gem-ens_T2ma_namer_65.png

Stormy E Coast too?
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Winter Storm Watch issued for smokies. Will be in route tomorrow afternoon

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Morristown TN
311 PM EST Wed Jan 11 2023

TNZ018-041-043-045-047-072-074-087-121000-
/O.NEW.KMRX.WS.A.0001.230113T0500Z-230114T1200Z/
Johnson-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Southeast Greene-Unicoi-
Southeast Carter-Blount Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky Mountains-
Southeast Monroe-
Including the cities of Doeville, Mountain City, Neva,
Shady Valley, Trade, Laurel Bloomery, Hartford, Cedar Creek,
Erwin, Unicoi, Limestone Cove, Hampton, Cades Cove, Elkmont,
Gatlinburg, Citico, and Coker Creek
311 PM EST Wed Jan 11 2023

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6
inches possible with locally higher totals possible. Winds
could gust as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Mountains of East Tennessee, generally at or above 2500
feet elevation.

* WHEN...From late Thursday night through Saturday morning.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

&&

$$
 
GoDuke said:
Hope in one had, ? in the other. See which one fills up first.
Click to expand...

The jet in the E Pac is going to collapse over the next 5-6 days. Meanwhile, there will be a new jet extension in the W Pac that kicks out off E Asia beginning on day 3 (Jan 14).

As we go out in time into the last 10 days of Jan, there are going to be competing forces that will likely play a role in determining how much this next jet extension pushes east.

The MJO tropical forcing is likely to become active in the Indian Ocean (Phase 2-3) which is a setup that favors limited jet extension, leading to a -PNA pattern.

In contrast, the developing height anomaly pattern over Asia of ridge in west & central Asia and trough in E Asia is one that will favor surface high pressure systems dropping down into E Asia, which typically leads to momentum being added into the Pac Jet as low pressure systems exit E Asia and head toward the Aleutian Islands, leading to a -EPO and/or +PNA pattern.

I'd say I'm 50/50 on it at the moment in terms of how this will lean for the last week of Jan into the beginning of Feb.

1CK4yvN.png
 
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