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Pattern Jammin January 2023

Cary_Snow95 said:
That’s 00z CMC
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My Bad, when I flipped tabs on pivotal it must have kicked back, waiting on new 12z update: Here you go.

500h_anom.nh.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I’ve seen there’s no Mention of this, so as someone that’s been saying this is expected, the southeast ridge is trending stronger on modeling as we enter the medium range, and we’re trending to a torch ??‍♂️ View attachment 131152View attachment 131153View attachment 131154
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Do the same thing starting at 282hrs and the EPS has trended colder. I guess you if you're interested in tracking warmth then sure, the time period prior to the possible cold/winter threat has trended warmer.eps_T850a_us_fh282_trend (2).gif
 
rburrel2 said:
Do the same thing starting at 282hrs and the EPS has trended colder. I guess you if you're interested in tracking warmth then sure, the time period prior to the possible cold/winter threat has trended warmer.View attachment 131162
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Just feels like the same losing battle as usual. Hour 282 winter wx showing up like it always does behind a warming trend. These patterns relying on the western atlantic ridge easily screw the SE esp the eastern SE (dec 2017/Feb 2021). You can already see in those trends the western Atlantic ridge and its associated warmer air aloft nosing in. By tomorrow it’ll probably be over us across the Carolina’s
 
NCSNOW said:
You need to go post Feb 6th. Definitely see that happening. We all chasing the 3-4 day max window hopefully 2/2ish-2/6ish.
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weren't we closing in on a late january window like 2 weekends ago? i don't like being the heel/wildremann but i am taking the L and will check back in in a few days unless the euro takes a dramatic favorable turn
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Just feels like the same losing battle as usual. Hour 282 winter wx showing up like it always does behind a warming trend. These patterns relying on the western atlantic ridge easily screw the SE esp the eastern SE (dec 2017/Feb 2021). You can already see in those trends the western Atlantic ridge and its associated warmer air aloft nosing in. By tomorrow it’ll probably be over us across the Carolina’s
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This has 1989 written all over it. Maybe we get a 10 day or so shot in mid to late Feb, but we really have no shot till then.
 
I don't think anyone has denied Feb 6- through Feb 15-20 isn't most likely going to be above normal. Hopeful the CFS isn't sniffing glue and we get the trough its advertising in the East established last 10 days of Feb.
 
D287FF7D-FB12-460F-BC38-C2C71229DF99.jpeg
Seeing a look like that as well as the one posted above reminds me so much of the 12/8/17 snowfall we had (our last significant snow). Here’s hoping we can trend better.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Just feels like the same losing battle as usual. Hour 282 winter wx showing up like it always does behind a warming trend. These patterns relying on the western atlantic ridge easily screw the SE esp the eastern SE (dec 2017/Feb 2021). You can already see in those trends the western Atlantic ridge and its associated warmer air aloft nosing in. By tomorrow it’ll probably be over us across the Carolina’s
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Sure, it's generally a losing battle with any setup here.
ILMRoss said:
weren't we closing in on a late january window like 2 weekends ago? i don't like being the heel/wildremann but i am taking the L and will check back in in a few days unless the euro takes a dramatic favorable turn
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Late January never really looked good for winter threats on the ensembles other than trending away from a sustained torch/SER. The February 2-6 timeframe is definitely the best look we've had since the December disappointment. (Not to say this time period won't wind up in the crapper tank too though)
 
In the somewhat agreed upon look on the models you need some SER reponse as the cold dumps into the plains. This will hold the baroclinic zone up so that the next wave(s) ride along it and pump moisture back into the deepening cold. Completely dumping cold into the east or having too much SER kill the look. The window is there but it's not huge
 
ILMRoss said:
weren't we closing in on a late january window like 2 weekends ago? i don't like being the heel/wildremann but i am taking the L and will check back in in a few days unless the euro takes a dramatic favorable turn
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Yea we have been in it since this past weekend started. run of mill normal cold for Jan. Plenty of cold rain storms passing by. I watched it pour rain in the mid 30's all day Sunday. Chances are highly likely the Groundhog day/post little window will end up with same result. But I'm not going to be out sunbathing here in Gboro. Yes we will get AN post 2/6ish and most likely out at least till 2/20ish no if an buts from what I'm seeing. After that it may or may not continue. It's a L if we don't score frozen, and chances are 50/50 we do/dont get the bleed east of the apps. Then its another 50/50 to get some timing.
 
Gboro has had 17 out of the 23 days in January above Normal. Past 3 have averaged Below normal. Today will be right on the fence. Then its Below normal through the weekend as we head into next week. Then we should spike AN 1-2 days.
 
I haven't found the precip maps yet for this time frame, but it's safe to assume that there was accumulating snow from near Shreveport to W. Tennesee at least.
gem_T2m_us_41.png
 
Looking at the updated teleconnections today, the only two good things I can say is the PNA looks to go positive again around the 2/5 or so and the MJO while moving into phase 4 looks to be amping down. Both the AO and NAO stay clearly positive. Like I said earlier, we’re really fighting a hard battle to see any potential through the 1st half of February
 
Chazwin said:
Looking at the updated teleconnections today, the only two good things I can say is the PNA looks to go positive again around the 2/5 or so and the MJO while moving into phase 4 looks to be amping down. Both the AO and NAO stay clearly positive. Like I said earlier, we’re really fighting a hard battle to see any potential through the 1st half of February
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The NAO being positive doesn't worry me anymore. We've had to snow with a +NAO since 2010. When we have had it lately we've wasted it. The AO is concerning and the MJO certainly is. The MJO has driven the pattern it seems for years now. Earlier this month everyone was thinking cold because of phase 8. Models showed warmth and it never got cold and looking back the MJO never went to phase 8. So the MJO forecast was the one wrong. So once again we have a discrepancy with its temp forecast vs its MJO forecast. Hopefully its colder pattern is correct and its MJO forecast is the one off like it was when it called for phase 8. That's my straw grasping for today. And if it does go the warm phases the 1st week in Feb we know it'll take all month to get out of them. And then we'll, that's pretty much a wrap. Nowhere to kick the can anymore then.
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
The NAO being positive doesn't worry me anymore. We've had to snow with a +NAO since 2010. When we have had it lately we've wasted it. The AO is concerning and the MJO certainly is. The MJO has driven the pattern it seems for years now. Earlier this month everyone was thinking cold because of phase 8. Models showed warmth and it never got cold and looking back the MJO never went to phase 8. So the MJO forecast was the one wrong. So once again we have a discrepancy with its temp forecast vs its MJO forecast. Hopefully its colder pattern is correct and its MJO forecast is the one off like it was when it called for phase 8. That's my straw grasping for today. And if it does go the warm phases the 1st week in Feb we know it'll take all month to get out of them. And then we'll, that's pretty much a wrap. Nowhere to kick the can anymore then.
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May I? I know some of you have a proclivity to talk in absolutes which is never, in my opinion, very wise. I always reflect back on this particular event when people start cliff diving over the MJO and AO.

Not one or two factors are always important. I still say it is a crap shoot most of the time. Early Feb, 2020, we were in Phase 5 MJO (warmest on average phase for early Feb) with an AO index approaching a record, +6 which resulted in the following:

1610993047422-png.66411
 
SD said:
While everyone is looking at day 10+ Thursday is going to give a decent amount of people on this board a shot at flurries or snow showers. East of the apps its rain or graupel
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I've been watching it. 3km NAM has some nice flurry activity all the way to Atlanta! I'm watching Thursday night for my best shot, when temps are cold enough. It's probably technically graupel but I don't care. I'll be watching!
 
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