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Pattern Jammin January 2023

Cary_Snow95 said:
Yes the next 10 days is torch. Doesn’t get interesting until potentially 2/2-2/4
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I wouldn't exactly call the next ten days torch.

The period is almost certainly devoid of any meaningful winter precip or frigid cold, but rather looks to be variable between slightly below normal cold and milder periods with the longest mild stretch several days before the hoped-for arctic front arrives. Now, if that front gets stalled out to the west, which is more likely than not, then torch is in order IMHO.
 
Yea, tabbed through the EPS, and control and member 50 looked good. most in between meh. Not saying there was nothing there, but not as many hits as 00Z.

NC peeps, don't look at member 50.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
ICON very bad lol
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I mean we’ve got some ridging off the left coast but the orientation is dog water and it’s just dumping vodka cold into Seattle and it looks like the rotation is priming for a raging perma +EPO to drive the final nail for east coast snow lovers. Clock is ticking9B991728-3936-4946-99A7-38D9FB0BADA5.png
 
So this run has lower heights off the Pacific NW, but the ridge orientation into Alaska might just displace the TPC over Hudson Bay a lot further south in the coming panels. Let's see.
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CMC changed its tune a lot with overrunning scenerio at the end. Again things change a lot around 240 hours .. we need the angle of cold to come in right, we need enough cold air to hamper SER.. no need to get excited and no need to be pessimistic right now. Can go either way. But It seems we’re at least trending to a colder period very early February (will turn possibly quickly back to a SER after this period so we need things to work out quickly to be able to score something) .. I have a good feeling someone in the east sees some form of winter precip during this time period. More likely to be western SE or Ohio valley right now per how these things usually turn out but no one knows for sure right now.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Looks like more SER on the GEFS means more rain events. ??‍♂️ Long ways to go with this but you should bank more on a non wintry solution to this story.

Edit: looks like it was just slightly delayed so not all terrible news but you get the story
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Gefs has been showing more cold past few runs for the Deep South consistently. Sure it may moderate back a little but colder than what we have now
 
metwannabe said:
6z GFS tried to get a late month clipper/late bloomer action fwiw (which isn't much lol)

View attachment 131123
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Honestly I think it’s worth something. I’ve seen no reason as to why this colder period isn’t coming from overnight models. Seems very consistent with guidance but still not getting a great read on exactly how energy transpires during this time (which is fair at this range)

But good lord GFS is now dropping the coldest air of the season on its 06z run. (Remember this is during one of the worst patterns known to mankind)
 
FallsLake said:
The 0z Canadian and European both looked similar at day 10. Cold air undercutting from the west and plenty of moisture being supplied by the SER. Plenty of days to track this potential, but at least we have two models on the same page.

Canadian:
View attachment 131125

European:
View attachment 131126
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Is it just me or does it look like it doesn’t undercut enough to produce anything but rain?
 
Stevo24 said:
Is it just me or does it look like it doesn’t undercut enough to produce anything but rain?
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Maybe the euro. You could argue that the mountains will keep most of the cold on the western side. But the Canadian has a better push of cold from the north (high weaker but in better position). If that went out a few more frames there would certainly be wintery precip east of the mountains. But again, we have many days to see if this has legs and to see what ultimately works out.
 
FallsLake said:
The 0z Canadian and European both looked similar at day 10. Cold air undercutting from the west and plenty of moisture being supplied by the SER. Plenty of days to track this potential, but at least we have two models on the same page.

Canadian:
View attachment 131125

European:
View attachment 131126
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This is also how you got that epic gfs fantasy run several cycles back. Same mechanics /time period. It still qualifies as a long shot, but it is a shot.
 
With Ground Hogs day fast approaching. Remind me when it gets here in 8-9 days to be careful what to wish for. GFS starts a burst of snow/sleet over to a mega freezing rain Storm: Followed up by temps dipping way down in the single digits the next couple of nights , as we would no doubt be sitting there with no power.

zr_acc-imp.us_ma.png

sfct-imp.us_ma.png
 
EmersonGA said:
22 this morning. That Bermuda is going to be springing to life.
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NCSNOW said:
With Ground Hogs day fast approaching. Remind me when it gets here in 8-9 days to be careful what to wish for. GFS starts a burst of snow/sleet over to a mega freezing rain Storm: Followed up by temps dipping way down in the single digits the next couple of nights , as we would no doubt be sitting there with no power.

zr_acc-imp.us_ma.png

sfct-imp.us_ma.png
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Bring it. I haven't lost power in a good winter storm since December of 2018. Fine by me. I'm ready. Let's see what happens over the next week with the models. At least we have a little hope at the moment.
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Even the CFS is on board with the 0Z Euro, 0ZCanadian and 6z GFS Op for the 2/2-2/3 period. I do see the GFS op and CFS advertise normal to slightly above normal after this till mid Feb, like Webb, Fro have been saying; However the CFS has changed a lot as you approach and pass mid Feb, really establishes the trough in the East last 10-14 days of FEB. Not gonna go dig ensembles and its the CFS and Long Range .


prateptype_cat-imp.conus.png
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Honestly I think it’s worth something. I’ve seen no reason as to why this colder period isn’t coming from overnight models. Seems very consistent with guidance but still not getting a great read on exactly how energy transpires during this time (which is fair at this range)

But good lord GFS is now dropping the coldest air of the season on its 06z run. (Remember this is during one of the worst patterns known to mankind)
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Not much ensemble support with that one system (6z) but starts looking better D10 and beyond but that's lala land. I will say models usually start telling where your heading, they just more times than not do so too quickly. I'm still all in with that much cold air just to our north, eventually we get just enough to bring wintry to, the bare minimum CAD areas, and maybe, just maybe can sink deep enough SE for a few lucky others. Just have to be patient
 
The location and movement of the TPV will be key to this whole scenario. Something similar to cluster 2 or better would work. If TPV shifts further west and the SER flexes quite a bit, we can hang it up. Certainly is a big battle/clash of two different airmasses.
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