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Pattern Jammin January 2023

1058 high into Montana. 192-hour? JMA, it's a lock!

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LukeBarrette said:
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I mean that’s not bad at all, certainly time to work towards this sort of solution
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Looking over the various models, it's quite apparent that even models are more volatile beyond days 5-6 than usual. Flip-flopping is the name of the game even on the large-scale features.

FWIW, the Canadian is nothing like the GFS.

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GFS should go big overrunning event.. that evolution just screams overrunning. Somehow managed a western ridge? Kicked things out real quick and we got a slam dunk pattern. Just skeptical that look holds though.. CMC was full on trough in the west which dumped energy out there and let the SER breath and was about to give us 70s
 
18z GFS is pretty much wall to wall record warmth from 180hrs to the end of the run... 00z GFS is wall to wall cold with multiple long lasting winter events. Crazy

Nice to see it flip more towards the 12z EPS from earlier today though.

Edit: this 00z GFS run my have to go in my fantasy file desktop folder. Whew!
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
GFS should go big overrunning event.. that evolution just screams overrunning. Somehow managed a western ridge? Kicked things out real quick and we got a slam dunk pattern. Just skeptical that look holds though.. CMC was full on trough in the west which dumped energy out there and let the SER breath and was about to give us 70s
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Definitely could go either way, maybe we get lucky
 
So when are the 2 Ls supposed to combine and give interior NE a big snow? Noth8ng impressive seems to be happening up that way atp??
 
well this is just fun

from the Spann Man:
MOVING TOWARD FEBRUARY: A battle zone will set up between strong subtropical high pressure off the Atlantic Coast, and a deep trough over the midsection of the nation. As many as three distinct waves of low pressure could move along the frontal boundary which will set up just to our northwest. That means some copious rain amounts in that first week of February. Parts of Alabama could see 4-6 inches of rain that week, with some higher amounts over Central sections.

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Saw on JB's twitter feed Mammoth MTN Ski Area has only had 509 inches of snow so far this year. Can you imagine. He had a retweet of someone up there filming 100mph gust, obviously slopes where closed. Also saw on his feed where the NYC fox station weatherman got mugged/attacked on the subway.
 
I’m been sold on warmth and still am, but the 12z EPS yesterday had continued support by its 00z run, and now the gefs. Many Members cutoff a ridge over AK/NE of AK and allow energy to break under the cutoff ridge, speeding up flow temporarily, sort of like that Feb 2014 evolution. this would allow a quick hit of favorability, would love to see this get under day 7 though. Lots that can change B2E03946-387A-49FE-945F-28C74B04F992.png6E9F6290-B92B-475A-B540-F678D88E7831.pngB44C1448-8352-449C-9848-111D5AC6D983.png
 
NCSNOW said:
Jimmy's Playground is getting dumped on this morning:

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Beech Mountain Resort Summit Cam - Resort Cams

Located at an elevation of 5,506 feet on the deck of the Skybar, this Beech Mountain webcam gives a great view of the ski resort and surrounding mountains.
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It’s nice to know the snow is never too far away. Radar looks good upstream. They’ll prob go for 4+. What i’d give to be drinking a coffee at the lodge right now. Next time.
 
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