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Pattern Jammin January 2023

Really messy. Would prefer more energy in the back side and more consolidation and while we're wishing would prefer the northern stream energy dropping into the back side of the trough.
Agree. Just not enough,space time. Still spins up a nice storm for the fishes. Every little bit back futher west, it will help the ones headed up the hill better this weekend, even if we miss on our token flakes down here. Hopefully Euro keeps same tune for those guys atleast.
 
Really messy. Would prefer more energy in the back side and more consolidation and while we're wishing would prefer the northern stream energy dropping into the back side of the trough.
I just think the pattern is too fast for it to do any of those things. Honestly there just isn’t enough time for a proper wave evolution.
 
GFS also very close to token flakes and cmc didn’t show anything but it was close.. I think some flakes (non accumulating) certainly could be possible under that upper low across NC and Virginia
 
Yep I just took a look at the season accum map and it looks real sad on the east coast. Even 2011-2012 wasn't this bad for a lot of folks.

2022-2023 so far:
View attachment 129801
2011-2012 on Jan 9:
View attachment 129802
2015-2016 was also shockingly horrendous. It must've been backloaded because I don't remember it being that bad of a winter.
View attachment 129803
2015-16 was a super Nino that had an extremely mild December…widespread severe weather across the south the week between Christmas and New Year’s… including a tornado that missed my house by about 200 yards
 
Haven't checked the EPS. But the Geps and Gefs both start spiking the West Coast Ridge around 1/20-1/21.

500h_anom-mean.nh.png
 
The EPS also begins the +PNA spike around 01/21 in line with the GEFS and GEPS as noted by NCSNOW and continues to build through the end of the run. Note in the temp panels below that deep cold is going to take some more time to become entrenched over the CONUS. Favored areas would appear to be west of the Appalachians initially.

eps_z500a_namer_61.png

eps_T850a_namer_61.png

eps_T2ma_namer_61.png
 
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