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Pattern Jammin January 2023

I mean I feel like we've seen much worse trends within 48 hrs... I'm not giving up on a flurry

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Crazy weenie thought I know, but one or more ticks in this direction and that vorticity lobe may actually cut off and EMCF members 5&17 that BullCityWX posted become reality. Speaking of the EMCF ensembles, I find it interesting that there are still some intriguing members at such a short range.

Would someone please post the earlier ensemble panels while the system is further west? ?
 
@SD right where you want it

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At least we are gaining some momentum towards something happening. I'm skeptical with such mediocre temps we do a lot but there's some potential to over perform and the BL becomes irrelevant to a degree
 
Can we get a couple of more shifts west...

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Hate to be that guy, but one would think the precip shield might even be a little more expansive than being modeled (if the SLP is as close as currently depicted on the NAMs) So I'm gonna say we see it shift at least one more time before reality kicks us in the jingle bells
 
token flakes along the eastern piedmont/coastal plain probably has legs, upper level with definitely be cold enough. BL temps could be suspect but you already knew that.

question is how many nudges towards a more favorable orientation/tilt does do we have left in the tank, 48 hours out is pushing it
 
token flakes along the eastern piedmont/coastal plain probably has legs, upper level with definitely be cold enough. BL temps could be suspect but you already knew that.

question is how many nudges towards a more favorable orientation/tilt does do we have left in the tank, 48 hours out is pushing it
2 but I need 3
 
Serious wedge here. Cross Anchor in southern Spartanburg county and on the Laurens county border is currently at 63. Spartanburg is 54 and here at the house it's 50 with serious fog and mist. If only it was about 28 instead with the moisture coming.
 
I had high hopes for a pattern change.

The last 36ish hours have been very discouraging though. CFS has dramatically warmed and the -PNA showing up on the modelling is just not good at all. If I dont see a change before Saturday, it may be time to punt further. If you look further out, however, the CFS is offering pretty chalk la nina climatology.
 
Long range on the EPS does not look good, imo. The ridge is too far west, with a positive tilt that tucks the cold nicely in the west where it always wants to be. Atlantic ridge is large and in charge keeping the cold away.

Jet is starting to retract west of HI, like @griteater warned. Starting to think tropical forcing smacks us again. I'm pretty weary of a pattern change right now. ?

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Definitely know better than to take stock in the LR model outputs, but the end of the 12z GFS actually looks good to me. You would think there would be a lot of undercutting of the cold coming down from the NW. This is where a battle between the SER and very cold air could make for some interesting times.

Dew points on day 16:
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Long range on the EPS does not look good, imo. The ridge is too far west, with a positive tilt that tucks the cold nicely in the west where it always wants to be. Atlantic ridge is large and in charge keeping the cold away.

Jet is starting to retract west of HI, like @griteater warned. Starting to think tropical forcing smacks us again. I'm pretty weary of a pattern change right now.

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Not until Nina loosens it’s grip in March or April. The only thing worse than a warm winter is a cold spring.


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Chance for some major league totals along border counties..newfound gap sweet spot. 441 will be shut down for quite a while. I’ve always wanted to ride one of these out up topA4D1E6AE-623B-4EBE-ADA8-0686FD454D12.jpeg
 
Bullseye only 48hrs out! :D Not sure if serious. It jumps around every run with these handful of flakes.
 
Yes but IS this where we are gonna land?
In some form yes, there are a number of possibilities on the table here. Like i said before I'd like this pattern a lot more if I was in MS, AL, LA, TN, VA where they can benefit from a displaced western ridge and slight SER response. For us in the Carolinas we need some suppression help whether it's from the pac ridge being east of models, a -nao, or pulling a cold vortex southeast and parking it north of the Great lakes. The op gfs was about the check the last 2 boxes to an extent.
 
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