Hate it for them.Surely there's one of us in Bladen or Columbus county jacked right now
Hate it for them.Surely there's one of us in Bladen or Columbus county jacked right now
Crazy weenie thought I know, but one or more ticks in this direction and that vorticity lobe may actually cut off and EMCF members 5&17 that BullCityWX posted become reality. Speaking of the EMCF ensembles, I find it interesting that there are still some intriguing members at such a short range.I mean I feel like we've seen much worse trends within 48 hrs... I'm not giving up on a flurry
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At least we are gaining some momentum towards something happening. I'm skeptical with such mediocre temps we do a lot but there's some potential to over perform and the BL becomes irrelevant to a degree
Hate to be that guy, but one would think the precip shield might even be a little more expansive than being modeled (if the SLP is as close as currently depicted on the NAMs) So I'm gonna say we see it shift at least one more time before reality kicks us in the jingle bells
2 but I need 3token flakes along the eastern piedmont/coastal plain probably has legs, upper level with definitely be cold enough. BL temps could be suspect but you already knew that.
question is how many nudges towards a more favorable orientation/tilt does do we have left in the tank, 48 hours out is pushing it
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Shame with this storm, we weren't far off from a good storm for our US-17 friends.
Have to love the expansiveness of this trend to cover more territory in NC. Have to see if it continues, levels off, or degrades away as we count down.Definite BL issues but the GFS continues to try and beef up moisture in the eastern sections
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Long range on the EPS does not look good, imo. The ridge is too far west, with a positive tilt that tucks the cold nicely in the west where it always wants to be. Atlantic ridge is large and in charge keeping the cold away.
Jet is starting to retract west of HI, like @griteater warned. Starting to think tropical forcing smacks us again. I'm pretty weary of a pattern change right now.![]()
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Maybe we go straight into springNot until Nina loosens it’s grip in March or April. The only thing worse than a warm winter is a cold spring.
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Yes but IS this where we are gonna land?I'd gladly take 5 more days of warmth if it meant we were going here and where this eventually would land.
You want a board wide overrunning winter storm? This will get you there
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Y'all buckle up now ya hear! lol
In some form yes, there are a number of possibilities on the table here. Like i said before I'd like this pattern a lot more if I was in MS, AL, LA, TN, VA where they can benefit from a displaced western ridge and slight SER response. For us in the Carolinas we need some suppression help whether it's from the pac ridge being east of models, a -nao, or pulling a cold vortex southeast and parking it north of the Great lakes. The op gfs was about the check the last 2 boxes to an extent.Yes but IS this where we are gonna land?