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Pattern Jammin January 2023

The Desert SW (AZ-TX) is likely to be at the base of the hypothesized Arctic Cold Snap later this month. It's been looking that way for awhile now.
 
GFS and HRRR similar looks....not the worst trend inside 48 hrs

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hrrr_ref_frzn_seus_48.png
 
Major winter win for our area. Winter storm warmings hoisted

Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Graham-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Faust,
Mars Hill, Marshall, Walnut, Allenstand, Hot Springs, Luck,
Swiss, Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick,
Spruce Pine, Poplar, Alarka, Almond, Bryson City, Luada, Wesser,
Waynesville, Waterville, Canton, Cruso, Cove Creek, Robbinsville,
and Stecoah
340 AM EST Thu Jan 12 2023

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM
EST SATURDAY ABOVE 3500 FEET...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
7 AM EST SATURDAY BELOW 3500 FEET...

* WHAT...For the Winter Storm Warning, heavy snow expected. Total
snow accumulations of up to 9 inches. Winds gusting as high as
45 mph. For the Winter Weather Advisory, snow expected. Total
snow accumulations of up to 2 inches. Winds gusting as high as
40 mph.

* WHERE...The North Carolina mountain counties along the Tennessee
border.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 7 AM EST Saturday.
 
Fwiw the GEFS has a handful of members show some light accums in/around eastern NC/SC. With what the HRRR is showing and even the NAMs to an extent, I'd say the chances of a minor flizzard with the passage of the upper level energy has increased to at least 40%

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Euro had a dusting or so from roughly Greensboro to the Durham/Orange line. There’s more QPF in the coastal plain and Sandhills but my assumption is it thinks it’ll be too warm there.
 
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To be clear I’m on my friends property on vacation
But that tornado warning alarm clock was not great 15 minutes ago after bourbon and 6 light beers last night. The headache is there.
 
1-3” in Cashiers. Seems like a bold call. I like it
They and Highlands do good, over 3000 feet up. SW NC you are eitheir 6,000 feet up or 2,000 on a valley floor. Beleive the smokies have like 19 peaks at 6,000 feet. Why the upstate bubble is so pronounced on the NW downslope.
 
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