Pattern Jammin January 2023

[Parker]

I’m feeling a trip to Lake Toxaway, looks like a killer spot with what models and ensembles are saying now. It was MLK weekend last year when they had the giant storm. Let’s go!!

 

[wxdaniel]

Something to keep in mind during this timeframe that temp have been average if best. There's a lot that can go wrong here.

 

[iGRXY]

Interesting

 

[rburrel2]

ICON looks to be setting up a major ice storm/wedge event at 174hrs. Key here is the 50/50 block is strong and in good position. If the 50/50 plays out that way I don't see how CAD area's miss this storm due to warmth... i'd be more worried about suppression. Also important that our storm doesn't have a northern stream wave attached to it mucking up the confluence over the great lakes/new england. GFS has been doing this each run.

 

[iGRXY]

Yeah this likely would lead to some type of storm in the CAD areas of NC/SC/VA/NEGA.

 

[iGRXY]

Deepening 50/50 Low and holding the HP in Canada stationary. ULL energy diving. This likely would've been a storm just based off this view.

 

[iGRXY]

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Yeah this likely would lead to some type of storm in the CAD areas of NC/SC/VA/NEGA.

Not too sure tbh. A high of 1038 strength that far north in a progressive pattern probably doesn’t get things done. Our prime placement for CAD events is a high much further south in PA. This would most likely skirt out and we’re left with a cold rain for most

 

[iGRXY]

Not too sure tbh. A high of 1038 strength that far north in a progressive pattern probably doesn’t get things done. Our prime placement for CAD events is a high much further south in PA. This would most likely skirt out and we’re left with a cold rain for most

We can score CAD off of low 1030 HP. You put a almost 1040 HP in SE Canada with a deepening 50/50 and that almost certainly would get the job done. Typical location is the NE but everywhere from the NE, MA, and SE Canada will get the job done, especially when you start pushing past 1033-1035mlb

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

We can score CAD off of low 1030 HP. You put an almost 1040 HP in SE Canada with a deepening 50/50 and that almost certainly would get the job done. Typical location is the NE but everywhere from the NE, MA, and SE Canada will get the job done, especially when you start pushing past 1033-1035mlb

Even with the 50/50 the pattern is progressive you would need the storm moving in much quicker to take advantage of the quick hitting cold and dry air. It’s fleeting at the end of the icon similar to the current gfs

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

So is Goofy fixing to phase and do the dip here?

 

[iGRXY]

Even with the 50/50 the pattern is progressive you would need the storm moving in much quicker to take advantage of the quick hitting cold and dry air. It’s fleeting at the end of the icon similar to the current gfs

Difference is it is deepening and in-situ with a border line 1040 HP would work. We rarely get an anchored HP in this day and time anyways. It may not be good enough for eastern NC, but for those of use back west? Yes it would work and would hold enough low level cold air to get something frozen.

 

[iGRXY]

Nothing like a nice cutter from the goofy.

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Nothing like a nice cutter from the goofy.

Miller B, transferring the low around 192

 

[Iceagewhereartthou]

Not too sure tbh. A high of 1038 strength that far north in a progressive pattern probably doesn’t get things done. Our prime placement for CAD events is a high much further south in PA. This would most likely skirt out and we’re left with a cold rain for most

Ideally I would like to see this all a bit further south. Move that H over to about upstate NY and push that low down to the gulf coast, tracking to Jacksonville. I am worried this setup, as modeled here, is way too marginal for areas East of apps and outside the mtns. This is more typical of what has become the norm; its a chance but needs some work for many of us. I expect a ton of changes over the next week and it may not look anything like this at go time; Time of day will also be key for many.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Difference is it is deepening and in-situ with a border line 1040 HP would work. We rarely get an anchored HP in this day and time anyways. It may not be good enough for eastern NC, but for those of use back west? Yes it would work and would hold enough low level cold air to get something frozen.

Verbatim there’s too much WAA you’ll end up with a 12z gfs solution. Cold rain. But maybe the upper level low can bring some cold air down to surprise us after the initial blow. Still we’re far from the end game here but this has always been a thread the needle type of threat.

 

[rburrel2]

CMC trended straight to the GFS... can't catch a break here. CMC now has the low going up through Chicago. Previous run had it transfering from the gulf coast to off the Charleston coast. sigh.

 

[Webberweather53]

This day 8-10 setup objectively (still) looks like ? outside the mountains & foothills. 12z GFS showing a potential paste bomb for the mountains though, which is about the only thing I'd put much stock in atm given the pattern + analogs.

 

[rburrel2]

Verbatim there’s too much WAA you’ll end up with a 12z gfs solution. Cold rain. But maybe the upper level low can bring some cold air down to surprise us after the initial blow. Still we’re far from the end game here but this has always been a thread the needle type of threat.

It's not a thread the needle event... but a surface low tracking through Chicago definitely misses the goal posts.

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

CMC trended straight to the GFS... can't catch a break here. CMC now has the low going up through Chicago. Previous run had it transfering from the gulf coast to off the Charleston coast. sigh.

GFS was actually a step in the right direction IMO. South of its 6Z run