-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
A touch SE at H5 60hrs compared to 12z, just a hair.
3 contours at 66hrs compared to 2 at 12z run, heavy + tilt
3 contours at 66hrs compared to 2 at 12z run, heavy + tilt
Done…
BufordWX
Member
Snowflowxxl
Member
Hi Rez clown was nearly the same as 12z, maybe warmer
@90hrs the trough looks to be setting up from Mississippi to savannah where the new surface low takes shape. It looks like its warmer though, board wide.
Snowflowxxl
Member
yep definelty a warmer run. bleh
Reducing the noise, this will likely be a Gulf low coming out of the eastern Panhandle, more A ish, expect these transition zones to continue sharpening. Natural baroclinic zone would support a track along or just offshore.
Tomorrow nights suites will hopefully get this down with all the data available. Seems like on my end; didn't know what to do with the lower pressure and where to put it etc.
I suspect the same. However this would bring warmer temps into the Carolinas.
BufordWX
Member
Mid 20s all the way into northeast ATL at midday Sunday with a big area of Freezing rain. Better hope there is more sleet then ice if that were to happen.
Indeed it will
Stephenb888
Member
What’s causing warmer temps?
Warm air advection at the mid levels, 700-850mb, cranking in to a rapidly deepening mid latitude cyclone.
Stephenb888
Member
So what do we need to make it better less amped?
Assuming you are in Anderson SC, you are in a good spot for major impacts, be safe.
Stephenb888
Member
I just mean what would we need to get less freezing rain and more snow in the upstate.
Downeastnc
Member
Yeah too Miller Aish to see a I 95 track IMO......just does not seem likely given the setup....still need a lot of work for our backyards to sniff anything significant not gonna be our storm.
Determinations at least 24 hours out, rough guess you will start as snow and likely see several inches before IP/ Maybe ZR but profiles look like sleet, than back to snow as the surface lifts NNE.
Not a good run with temps this morning. Some areas stayed the same or was extremely warmer. Possible transferring of the surface low?
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Temps are lock imo up this way but qpf busts are quiet possible I see. Up to 0.75” of fantasy moisture could lower snow amounts by a large margin for some esp @BIG FROSTY and up into south-west Virginia.
I’m very hesitant to go above 6” for anyone in NC until it’s actually on radar. I just have to see the final track and moisture returns I’ve been down this road too many times. Maybe we can pin point the track sooner to see who gets that 12”+ but for now it’s still low confidence. I’m high confidence tho on amounts up to 6”.
Snowflowxxl
Member
Whose got the eps
Mount Rogers, Virginia still my chasing place. 
olhausen
Member
Nashville area discussion
Snowflowxxl
Member
850s are on fire on the NAM in most places outside mtns
Snowflowxxl
Member
Almost all of this is ice or sleet outside the mountains. Good night
So going over the overnight model data.
Latest NAM, Euro, & CMC all ticked back warmer
UKMET is the only model that looks better from it's previous run
Not to wake everyone up with negativity, but we are ticking back the wrong direction.
On to the morning runs.
Latest NAM, Euro, & CMC all ticked back warmer
UKMET is the only model that looks better from it's previous run
Not to wake everyone up with negativity, but we are ticking back the wrong direction.
On to the morning runs.
Downeastnc
Member
cool graphic
Snowflowxxl
Member
6Z ICON is another huge hit. Might even be a tick colder
Looks like its a literal tick warmer at the beginning of the storm, but a tick colder during the middle and end of the storm.
Snowflowxxl
Member
Probably gonna start seeing winter storm watches being issued later today/tomorrow morning