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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

packfan98 said:
Lots of GEFS members have the low tracking close to Hatteras. Much better results in the I-85 corridor and NW as a result.
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Does the mean surface tracks shift east from 12z. Is their a mean 500mb vort map for gefs?
 
SD said:
Depends where you live in the triangle tbh. North and Western parts a decent amount of snow, Sleet, freezing rain, south and east some snow, Sleet, freezing rain but likely changing to rain
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I would say right now until the models get better data, Allan Huffman's map/first call is about as good as it gets.
 
The NAM has slowed the system compared to the GFS at the 84hr. The 850s are a lot colder. The cad areas as well. Precip looks more back over Arkansas too. Has anyone noticed this?


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KILM Late afternoon Disco..

----------

The timing of this system seems to be in better agreement as most show the onset overnight Saturday (Morning/ Afternoon,, OR?), prior to Sunday.

Precipitation would spread from south to north across the area
and temperatures falling into the low 30s overnight (Building CAD In place? ) with help from the cold air advection from the NE.

Ensemble spread is now increasing, reflected with the latest operational ECMWF showing the low pressure center shifting slightly southward and other members holding steady with previous forecasts.

However, this has not been the overall trend.

Looking at all of the previous models runs and the ongoing trends, the picture continues to
show a system that will track near the immediate coastline. ..

The question continues to be how long will freezing temperatures reside in the area before the warm nose pushes through?

It is increasing likely that light rain will be observed at the start, allowing evaporative, (WET BULBING), cooling to cool the near-surface
temperatures to the near-freezing wet bulb.

This will lead to the transition of freezing rain or some form of a light wintry mix after sunrise. Once this changeover occurs, there will be a brief window of opportunity for icing on grassy and elevated surfaces with ground (road) temperatures still above freezing.

The best chance of any accrual will be inland portions of SENC and the Northern Pee Dee, mainly north of US-76, with a brief window for points southward too short for meaningful impacts.

A transition to all rain will follow as the warm nose works inland, fueled by a strong 850mb LLJ. Again, how quickly will this occur and what will be the rate of precip during this window?

Given the current forecast, impacts should remain minor for points east of I-95, increasing west of I- 95.

Confidence is low to non-existent on actual amounts given the current spread, but; would lean toward the lower end of any averages given the self-limiting process of freezing rain due to the latent heat release of freezing.

Regardless, rain, heavy at times, on Sunday could create some travel headaches in itself: reduced visibility, ponding on roadways, and slick surfaces in general could be enough to cause some minor impacts.

Improving conditions are expected Sunday night into Monday morning with portions of the area seeing a changeover to a mix of rain and snow or a light flurry. Moisture at this stage would be shallow and this would just make for a nice picture with no impacts
expected.

In other words?
NWS doesn't itself know what's going too happen at this Juncture..

Models, (all of them) are currently struggling to even, getting the evolution right..

I HONESTLY don't think ANYONE, (even the Models will not know), Until it's Game Time ..
Even then.. Ya'll know the rest of that Story..
Some folks are gonna get a "Big Dog", some will go into "Lights Out Mode"..
Some will get a pleasant surprise..
most will get a Cold Arsed Rain..

ALOT are gonna get they're feelings hurt.. ?

Then again,, Who knows?
 
tstartt said:
What’s the overall take for the NW ATL burbs?
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I mean I live out in Paulding County IMO places like Bartow, Paulding, Cobb are probably looking at .10 to .25 inches of freezing rain initially and a backside thump of between 1-2.5 inches of snow based of some models today. We shall see if that changes as still plenty of time left before we can really say for sure what this system will do
 
SENC said:
KILM Late afternoon Disco..

----------

The timing of this system seems to be in better agreement as most show the onset overnight Saturday (Morning/ Afternoon,, OR?), prior to Sunday.

Precipitation would spread from south to north across the area
and temperatures falling into the low 30s overnight (Building CAD In place? ) with help from the cold air advection from the NE.

Ensemble spread is now increasing, reflected with the latest operational ECMWF showing the low pressure center shifting slightly southward and other members holding steady with previous forecasts.

However, this has not been the overall trend.

Looking at all of the previous models runs and the ongoing trends, the picture continues to
show a system that will track near the immediate coastline. ..

The question continues to be how long will freezing temperatures reside in the area before the warm nose pushes through?

It is increasing likely that light rain will be observed at the start, allowing evaporative, (WET BULBING), cooling to cool the near-surface
temperatures to the near-freezing wet bulb.

This will lead to the transition of freezing rain or some form of a light wintry mix after sunrise. Once this changeover occurs, there will be a brief window of opportunity for icing on grassy and elevated surfaces with ground (road) temperatures still above freezing.

The best chance of any accrual will be inland portions of SENC and the Northern Pee Dee, mainly north of US-76, with a brief window for points southward too short for meaningful impacts.

A transition to all rain will follow as the warm nose works inland, fueled by a strong 850mb LLJ. Again, how quickly will this occur and what will be the rate of precip during this window?

Given the current forecast, impacts should remain minor for points east of I-95, increasing west of I- 95.

Confidence is low to non-existent on actual amounts given the current spread, but; would lean toward the lower end of any averages given the self-limiting process of freezing rain due to the latent heat release of freezing.

Regardless, rain, heavy at times, on Sunday could create some travel headaches in itself: reduced visibility, ponding on roadways, and slick surfaces in general could be enough to cause some minor impacts.

Improving conditions are expected Sunday night into Monday morning with portions of the area seeing a changeover to a mix of rain and snow or a light flurry. Moisture at this stage would be shallow and this would just make for a nice picture with no impacts
expected.

In other words?
NWS doesn't itself know what's going too happen at this Juncture..

Models, (all of them) are currently struggling to even, getting the evolution right..

I HONESTLY don't think ANYONE, (even the Models will not know), Until it's Game Time ..
Even then.. Ya'll know the rest of that Story..
Some folks are gonna get a "Big Dog", some will go into "Lights Out Mode"..
Some will get a pleasant surprise..
most will get a Cold Arsed Rain..

ALOT are gonna get they're feelings hurt.. ?

Then again,, Who knows?
Click to expand...

Yeah, the bolded is not a really accurate statement. Most of us inland are not going to get a cold rain. The coastal areas, sure. But a lot of members on this board are looking at a pretty significant winter storm.
 
Weather channel has me up to 15” with sustained winds up to 20mph and a small chance of ice mix. Hot garbage at its finest. My call for the northern foothill counties would be 4-8” snow with some ice and little to no wind.
 
dsaur said:
Larry, I'm way over due for anything significant. Sleet, snow, or zr. It's been since 05 that I could sled on the streets. Lots of little events, or spring snows, but a major freeze down event, no.
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And even that wasn't good enough for street sledding. It started out as light zr and turned to sleet for a few hours, light, and ended up icing down a neighbors long drive. To get some good street sledding it takes a few inches of sleet, to freeze down with sticking power so the next night, or the one after, even after the 4 wheelers chew it up, you have frozen down roads. It's been so long, I think I might just have dreamed it. I know I had the two in the 70's, and two in the 80's down here, and a half assed one in the 90's...but those are are but lost to the mists of time, and old age :) But with the gom lows trying to march, I have a feeling I'll get at least close sometime soon. Of course, to get close, you have to deal with the dreaded zr, lol.
 
dsaur said:
And even that wasn't good enough for street sledding. It started out as light zr and turned to sleet for a few hours, light, and ended up icing down a neighbors long drive. To get some good street sledding it takes a few inches of sleet, to freeze down with sticking power so the next night, or the one after, even after the 4 wheelers chew it up, you have frozen down roads. It's been so long, I think I might just have dreamed it. I know I had the two in the 70's, and two in the 80's down here, and a half assed one in the 90's...but those are are but lost to the mists of time, and old age :) But with the gom lows trying to march, I have a feeling I'll get at least close sometime soon. Of course, to get close, you have to deal with the dreaded zr, lol.
Click to expand...
Tony, Man, you are due and I can't speak for anyone else, but prayers up ... ?
 
ryan1234 said:
Yeah, the bolded is not a really accurate statement. Most of us inland are not going to get a cold rain. The coastal areas, sure. But a lot of members on this board are looking at a pretty significant winter storm.
Click to expand...
Correct, When KILM makes "statements" such as that.. It basically means with-in 10 miles of the ICW.. or across the Cape Fear River Et Al.. (Inland Pender/Brunswick/Horry/Columbus/Onslow Counties..)

They ARE talking mostly about New Hanover County I'm 40 miles NE (Hampstead/Surf City) could be a whole different ball game.
OR in Brunswick County,, South of the Cape Fear..

(Kinda Banter here)

They're have been MANY Times when I was commercial shell fishing..
We would leave SouthPort Marina, go across the CFR, over to Bald Head Island..
Heavy rain in South Port & Wilmington (Kure Beach)..
Yet,, Ripping Fat feathers on Bald head..
Seen Quite a bit of this (In different areas) throughout the years, living on the Coast..
 
SENC said:
Correct, When KILM makes "statements" such as that.. It basically means with-in 10 miles of the ICW.. or across the Cape Fear River Et Al.. (Inland Pender/Brunswick/Horry/Columbus/Onslow Counties..)

They ARE talking mostly about NEW Hanover County.
40 miles NE (Hampstead/Surf City) could be a whole different ball game.
OR in Brunswick County,, South of the Cape Fear..

(Kinda Banter here)

They're have been MANY Times when I was commercial shell fishing..
We would leave SouthPort Marina, go across the CFR, over to Bald Head Island..
Heavy rain in South Port & Wilmington (Kure Beach)..
Yet,, Ripping Fat feathers on Bald head..
Seen Quite a bit of this (In different areas) throughout the years, living on the Coast..
Click to expand...
Well, I hope you get a little something, something from this event!
 
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