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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

BullCityWx said:
Can anyone remember a similar storm where the ensembles of both models were in near agreement but virulently disagreed with their OPs who sorta agreed with each other? I surely can’t.
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No, but tonight's 0z run should help us determine if the OP runs are seeing something that the ensembles are not. Let's see who blinks first.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Yeah this run has a weaker low pressure around the gulf coast View attachment 104075
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The highs in the 18z also show slight improvement here. Splitting hairs but the main high near the great lakes is a half tick west and looks like it is trying to open another isobar, ditto for the Iowa high. Then a 1029 opens over N WI. Not a huge difference but could be important for cold press nonetheless, especially with the low a tad weaker and half a tick South.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
This change at H5 might be the reason for colder/snowier, notice the energy is slightly more sheared/stretched from that cutoff near California. View attachment 104083View attachment 104087View attachment 104084View attachment 104085View attachment 104086
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4 inch snow mean in the Midlands of SC?? WOW! Lets hope the EPS and the GEFS is on to something with much less amped up low.If so, maybe the I-20 corrdior areas in SC could be back in the game for signifcant snowfall and Ice may not be a problem at all. One can hope.
 
iGRXY said:
Didn’t grit say the control was better in the long range anyways? I may be confusing him and it’s the other way around but I think I remember him saying the control was better around the day 8-10+ time frame
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The paper I referenced had the chart showing Control was slightly more accurate days 6 to 11, Op was slightly more accurate days 2-4
 
Just really catching up but wanted to highlight the GEFS mean. This thing is GORGEOUS for everybody not in AL or MS! Most of us would take that look anyday and run to the store and back with a grin. I agree the GFS trend today has not been good but there are so many other great looking runs out there. We have certainly seen this behavior from the GFS OP before.1641941242655.png
 
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If the latest Euro, CMC, and JMA predictions for the MJO are right (I haven’t seen a new forecast from GEFS or CFS since 1/5), the MJO will be near if not inside the COD at the time of the upcoming storm threat. Keep in mind that should ATL get a major sleet or ice from this, it may very well be when the MJO is near or inside the circle just like all 8 of the ones since 1979.
 
TeachLesley said:
What about day 5? Sorry had to ask.
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Ha, it was right at the inflexion point, no diff

4SAm2Fm.png
 
BullCityWx said:
I don’t think we’re going to see this ensemble/OP split hashed out until this thing is onshore.
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I agree… especially if this is an issue with the initial conditions at the start of these run… obviously getting better sampling data once this energy is on shore should start to clear that up
 
While we wait on 00Z...I don't like hybrids or Miller Bs much. One of the best ones recently was Dec 2018. Not sure how that one was classified technically but there was definitely weak low pressure west of the apps while most of the system ran up the coast. Most other hybrids and Bs do have a major QPF min just east of the mountains and or = crappy ice.

So I don't like the GFS look but the GEFS has not shut the door on other solutions. ICON was more like a strong clipper maintaining NW-SE drift. Some GEFS members seemed to have that. EURO was more of a Miller A and some ensemble members have that look as well. Then there is the Bs. Cold it be another over performing B, or one of many that show 1.5 QPF that end up .3 because the transfer completely kills the moisture transport.

Grit, Fro, and Rain Cold (i am sure others) had great posts above but I got too far behind to quote/reply. 30 pages between work start and work end is a bit much :)

Hope many of score on this one!
 
BullCityWx said:
Can anyone remember a similar storm where the ensembles of both models were in near agreement but virulently disagreed with their OPs who sorta agreed with each other? I surely can’t.
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No, but we've seen a number of cases where the GFS was suppressed and the GEFS Mean was a good hit...and I've always kind of had this thought of, "why in the heck does it seem like the GFS is always the worst performing member of the ensemble?". Never really had that thought with the EPS. But what's throwing me here is that I would feel much more comfortable if we were seeing the opposite case from current - i.e. Op is suppressed / Mean is hitting us, instead of Op is amped / Mean is hitting us. Also, CMC / Euro / Euro Control are amped (though UKMet is not)
 
griteater said:
No, but we've seen a number of cases where the GFS was suppressed and the GEFS Mean was a good hit...and I've always kind of had this thought of, "why in the heck does it seem like the GFS is always the worst performing member of the ensemble?". Never really had that thought with the EPS. But what's throwing me here is that I would feel much more comfortable if we were seeing the opposite case from current - i.e. Op is suppressed / Mean is hitting us, instead of Op is amped / Mean is hitting us. Also, CMC / Euro / Euro Control are amped (though UKMet is not)
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I am not 100% sure, but I believe I have a memory of the op Euro (and maybe the op GFS) refusing to bring precipitation very far inland with this event up to almost verification - and I think the ensembles were farther west. I am pretty sure about the ops not being far enough west, but I can't recall for sure if the ensembles were better. But I know this went on for quite a few runs close to the event (inside D5 I'm fairly certain). Does anyone else recall this?

accum.20180104.png
 
griteater said:
No, but we've seen a number of cases where the GFS was suppressed and the GEFS Mean was a good hit...and I've always kind of had this thought of, "why in the heck does it seem like the GFS is always the worst performing member of the ensemble?". Never really had that thought with the EPS. But what's throwing me here is that I would feel much more comfortable if we were seeing the opposite case from current - i.e. Op is suppressed / Mean is hitting us, instead of Op is amped / Mean is hitting us. Also, CMC / Euro / Euro Control are amped (though UKMet is not)
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I get what you are saying, but I think I would rather have the ensembles on my side at this range. I am getting a little concerned with the trend, but I am not ready to side with the GFS OP run just yet. I do agree that we will not have this settled until later this week, but if we can stop the north trend at 0z, I would feel much better.
 
Hypsometric said:
I am not 100% sure, but I believe I have a memory of the op Euro (and maybe the op GFS) refusing to bring precipitation very far inland with this event up to almost verification - and I think the ensembles were farther west. I am pretty sure about the ops not being far enough west, but I can't recall for sure if the ensembles were better. But I know this went on for quite a few runs close to the event (inside D5 I'm fairly certain). Does anyone else recall this?

View attachment 104109
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Local Mets depended on the GFS/Euro (not their ensembles) which showed 3"-5" max with very low QPF until right before the event. Some areas in SEVA ended up seeing more than a foot, which ensembles & short range models had been suggesting.
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
I get what you are saying, but I think I would rather have the ensembles on my side at this range. I am getting a little concerned with the trend, but I am not ready to side with the GFS OP run just yet. I do agree that we will not have this settled until later this week, but if we can stop the north trend at 0z, I would feel much better.
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DT is still saying he doesn't trust the GFS. Hopefully he's right.

Aleeeeeet

 
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