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Tropical Tropical storm Claudette

They added a slight right in my highest risk area I was highlighting. modernweenie 20210618_134232.jpgScreenshot_20210618-134118-625.pngScreenshot_20210618-134012-332.pngScreenshot_20210618-134505.png
 
SD said:
Inching northView attachment 85492
Click to expand...
Notice that the swath of rainfall doesn’t really move any over north GA and the Carolinas, but instead simply is more expansive on the northwest side. I think that is the model starting to pick up better on what should be a perfect upslope set up. I wouldn’t be surprised to really start seeing this show up even better as we go forward on the 3kNAM and the HRRR once in range.
 
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Raw Recon Data
( * ) Denotes suspect data
Time: 18:45:30Z
Coordinates: 27.817N 88.167W
Acft. Static Air Press: 343.8 mb
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 8,718 m (28,602 ft)
D-value: 480 m
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 186° at 50 kts (From the S at 57.5 mph)
Air Temp: -21.5°C* (-6.7°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 56 kts (64.4 mph)

Too bad that's at 350 MB 28.600 ft lol
 
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18z hrrr updraft helicity swaths. That panhandle and two counties of alabama on the gulf look to be the hotspot. For any credible tornado chances. Over the past few runs helicity streaks have gotten heavier. Screenshot_20210618-145128-394.png
 
Would it be weenie-ish to say that this probably might not develop in time.

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SimeonNC said:
Would it be weenie-ish to say that this probably might not develop in time.

Sent from my LM-Q730 using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
At this point it really doesn’t matter. The only reason this thing isn’t a named storm now is simply because it’s circulation has not closed off yet. The impacts going forward will be virtually the same.
 
Once or if they classified this before LF, I bet we get a 60 mpr storm
 
SD said:
View attachment 85507
Click to expand...
Yep just as I suspected .. models taking this thing through the heart of NC giving many areas 2-3 inches widespread … drought buster coming through ??

I also saw some potential for severe storms as the low tracks right over … definitely see some twisty cells
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Yep just as I suspected .. models taking this thing through the heart of NC giving many areas 2-3 inches widespread … drought buster coming through ??

I also saw some potential for severe storms as the low tracks right over … definitely see some twisty cells
Click to expand...
How much for Jonesville?
 
Chazwin said:
Shetley will manage to squeeze out .25 inch while 5 miles away will have about 4 inches and flooding issues
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No, Shetley will get 6 feet of rain and say that it will be over 100 and bone dry for each of the next four months.
 
I guess this isn't going to be named Claudette or even become a Tropical Depression after all. It has already made landfall.
 
Tornado confirmed near dauphin island in alabama earlier with injuries.
 
Track headed south again it looks like at least according to the NHC. This will end up missing most of us yet.
 
JHS said:
Track headed south again it looks like at least according to the NHC. This will end up missing most of us yet.
Click to expand...
Atlanta looks like the "sweet" spot, I am sure all are going to get some water though.



.HYDROLOGY...

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
747 AM EDT Sat Jun 19 2021



The updated WPC forecast continues to have a swath of forecast
rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches (localized 6) over portions of
northern and central Georgia, though is a bit more confined in
areal spread. The greatest amounts still look to be generally
along the I-85 corridor. Much of the forecast area continues to be
included in the Moderate Risk within the WPC''s Excessive Rainfall
Outlook, which does include portions of the Atlanta metro area.
The current Flash Flood Watch is still warranted across portions
of north and central GA from 18Z today to 00z Monday.

An additional 1 to 1.5" of rainfall will be possible from Monday
into Tuesday in association with the incoming cold front.



I love these night light shots, shows how big metro areas are.
 
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bigstick10 said:
Atlanta looks like the "sweet" spot, I am sure all are going to get some water though.



.HYDROLOGY...

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
747 AM EDT Sat Jun 19 2021



The updated WPC forecast continues to have a swath of forecast
rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches (localized 6) over portions of
northern and central Georgia, though is a bit more confined in
areal spread. The greatest amounts still look to be generally
along the I-85 corridor. Much of the forecast area continues to be
included in the Moderate Risk within the WPC''s Excessive Rainfall
Outlook, which does include portions of the Atlanta metro area.
The current Flash Flood Watch is still warranted across portions
of north and central GA from 18Z today to 00z Monday.

An additional 1 to 1.5" of rainfall will be possible from Monday
into Tuesday in association with the incoming cold front.
Click to expand...
You are good to go there it looks like but much of upstate SC and much of NC will be too far north it looks like. Augusta GA, Columbia SC, and Wilmington NC should get a good rain out of this too, but not the I-85 corridor and north in both Carolinas.
 
JHS said:
You are good to go there it looks like but much of upstate SC and much of NC will be too far north it looks like. Augusta GA, Columbia SC, and Wilmington NC should get a good rain out of this too, but not the I-85 corridor and north in both Carolinas.
Click to expand...
The NWS as well as most modeling has 2-3 inches of rain forecasted for all of the SC upstate, southern mountains, foothills, and Piedmont of NC, with 1-2 inches up along the I-40 corridor.
 
JHS said:
You are good to go there it looks like but much of upstate SC and much of NC will be too far north it looks like. Augusta GA, Columbia SC, and Wilmington NC should get a good rain out of this too, but not the I-85 corridor and north in both Carolinas.
Click to expand...
We'll add this to the take book.

gfs_apcpn_seus_16.png


Hazardous Weather Outlook
Hazardous Weather Outlook...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
602 AM EDT Sat Jun 19 2021

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>065-068>072-
082-507>510-SCZ001>014-019-201000-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Madison-Swain-Haywood-
Buncombe-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-
Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-
Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
602 AM EDT Sat Jun 19 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop
this afternoon and evening. Coverage of showers and thunderstorms
is expected to increase late tonight as moisture from Tropical
Storm Claudette overspreads the area. While the main threats from
any thunderstorms will be from heavy rainfall and occasional
cloud to ground lightning, isolated flash flooding could develop
by daybreak Sunday, especially across the South Carolina and
northeast Georgia Piedmont.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

The threat for heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding will
increase across much of the area during the daylight hours Sunday. A
threat for isolated severe storms is also expected to materialize,
especially south and east of I-85. The main threats from any severe
storms will be from brief damaging wind gusts and isolated, brief
tornadoes.

SUMMARY

All in all, everyone should expect a widespread, soaking rain except JShetley.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

$$
 
Chazwin said:
The NWS as well as most modeling has 2-3 inches of rain forecasted for all of the SC upstate, southern mountains, foothills, and Piedmont of NC, with 1-2 inches up along the I-40 corridor.
Click to expand...

Model consensus and NHC track keeps shifting south though. Cyclonic envelope may not be enough to throw rain north into anything but the far southern reaches of NC.
 
blueheronNC said:
Model consensus and NHC track keeps shifting south though. Cyclonic envelope may not be enough to throw rain north into anything but the far southern reaches of NC.
Click to expand...
The official track forecast track is pretty much unchanged since yesterday afternoon, and most modeling has been fairly holding since then as well. Also even models that have had a more southerly track have really expanded the rainfall to the north of the center… GSP mentions this in their discussion this morning, and it’s nothing unusual for a Gulf tropical system as it moves inland. As the system begins to transition to post tropical, it should begin to develop a shield of heavy rain to the north and northwest of the center… the CAMs are starting to show this.
 
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