probably going to have some embedded sups in this band coming out of the gulf then a few random ones in bands east of it
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Tropical Tropical storm Claudette
- Thread starter Snowfan
- Start date
iGRXY
Member
The only thing we know for sure about PTC 3 is it will either go W, N, S or E of Jonesville, SC
Z
Zander98al
Guest
Nws mobile on inland tornadoes. Guess I'll have my eyes on radar down south this evening as some of the first convective bands rotate through. Saturday may have the best overlap in parameters they say
I mentioned this yesterday and I’ll say it again. Gulf tropical systems once inland always have a shield of heavy rain to the north and northwest of the center. Even with the more southern track like the EURO, which the NHC doesn’t seem to buying into right now, there should be significant rainfall even where this output shows it being mainly dry. The moist S to SE flow ahead of the center on this track would create a perfect upslope for north GA, SC upstate, and at least the southern half of the NC mountains and foothills. I don’t remember which storm last year coming out of the Gulf it was, but I remember how models were keeping those areas very dry 48-72 hours out only to see those spots end up with the heaviest rain even though the track pretty stayed on point.
Z
Zander98al
Guest
Wonder if we're going to see bombogenesis when this thing makes landfall. Some cams are showing that ?
Yeah I wouldn’t be looking at 1 model here there’s clear guidance pointing towards the system as a whole traveling through the Carolinas and at least creating a widespread showers and thunderstorms type of day around here … might not be as much rain as they are getting further south west but it won’t be nothing
iGRXY
Member
These things always over perform on the north and northwest sides. They much more spacious usually as well. I think widespread 2-5" is likely across most of the carolinas.
There's an obvious separate low-level low still way down at 21N and 95W. I wonder if it tries to develop as the main low moves steadily away?
www.tropicaltidbits.com
Satellite Loop for Gulf of Mexico | Tropical Tidbits
Gulf of Mexico Satellite Loop
If you go back and look at some old model runs I think that is what most of the slower left models keyed on. I found this old euro run where it has 2 closed sfc lows in an overall larger gyre.There's an obvious separate low-level low still way down at 21N and 95W. I wonder if it tries to develop as the main low moves steadily away?
Satellite Loop for Gulf of Mexico | Tropical Tidbits
Gulf of Mexico Satellite Loop
Once that deep persistent convection got going north of the Yucatan though it basically took over
Z
Zander98al
Guest
Forecast cape from 3km 12 nam has around 3000 joules in this area. Again I think there's a substantial risk for spin up torndoes maybe a stronger one. Helicity swaths match up with spc convective marginal risk area for our area.
bigstick10
Member
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA, NORTH CENTRAL
GEORGIA, NORTHWEST GEORGIA AND WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA, INCLUDING THE
FOLLOWING AREAS, IN CENTRAL GEORGIA, BIBB, BUTTS, CRAWFORD,
JASPER, JONES, MONROE AND PEACH. IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA,
CLAYTON, COBB, DEKALB, DOUGLAS, FAYETTE, GWINNETT, HENRY, NEWTON,
NORTH FULTON, ROCKDALE, SOUTH FULTON AND WALTON. IN NORTHWEST
GEORGIA, CARROLL, HARALSON, PAULDING AND POLK. IN WEST CENTRAL
GEORGIA, CHATTAHOOCHEE, COWETA, HARRIS, HEARD, LAMAR, MACON,
MARION, MERIWETHER, MUSCOGEE, PIKE, SCHLEY, SPALDING, STEWART,
TALBOT, TAYLOR, TROUP, UPSON AND WEBSTER.
* FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
* A TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING HEAVY RAINFALL TO
PORTIONS OF GEORGIA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WATCH AREA, WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 6
INCHES POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN GEORGIA. QUICKLY
ACCUMULATING RAINFALL WILL EASILY ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT RUNOFF AND
INCREASE FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL.
* CREEKS AND STREAMS MAY RISE OUT OF THEIR BANKS AND INUNDATE
FIELDS, ROADS, BUSINESSES AND OTHER PROPERTY. STREET FLOODING
COULD ALSO LEAD TO ROAD CLOSURES.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.
SUNDAY EVENING...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA, NORTH CENTRAL
GEORGIA, NORTHWEST GEORGIA AND WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA, INCLUDING THE
FOLLOWING AREAS, IN CENTRAL GEORGIA, BIBB, BUTTS, CRAWFORD,
JASPER, JONES, MONROE AND PEACH. IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA,
CLAYTON, COBB, DEKALB, DOUGLAS, FAYETTE, GWINNETT, HENRY, NEWTON,
NORTH FULTON, ROCKDALE, SOUTH FULTON AND WALTON. IN NORTHWEST
GEORGIA, CARROLL, HARALSON, PAULDING AND POLK. IN WEST CENTRAL
GEORGIA, CHATTAHOOCHEE, COWETA, HARRIS, HEARD, LAMAR, MACON,
MARION, MERIWETHER, MUSCOGEE, PIKE, SCHLEY, SPALDING, STEWART,
TALBOT, TAYLOR, TROUP, UPSON AND WEBSTER.
* FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
* A TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING HEAVY RAINFALL TO
PORTIONS OF GEORGIA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WATCH AREA, WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 6
INCHES POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN GEORGIA. QUICKLY
ACCUMULATING RAINFALL WILL EASILY ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT RUNOFF AND
INCREASE FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL.
* CREEKS AND STREAMS MAY RISE OUT OF THEIR BANKS AND INUNDATE
FIELDS, ROADS, BUSINESSES AND OTHER PROPERTY. STREET FLOODING
COULD ALSO LEAD TO ROAD CLOSURES.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.
UK is slowly leaking north
bigstick10
Member
That map is Bull S H I T.. ^^^^
Inching north
Rosie
Member
