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Tropical Tropical storm Claudette

Snowfan

El Nina stinks
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the models have been showing this for the past several days.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 121752
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An area of cloudiness and showers over the Bay of Campeche and the
adjacent land areas is associated with a trough of low pressure.
Slow development of this system is possible over the next several
days as it moves slowly and erratically, and a tropical depression
could form in this area by the middle of next week. Regardless of
development, due to the slow motion heavy rainfall is possible over
portions of Central America and southern Mexico. Please consult
products from your local meteorological service for more
information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven/Latto
 
Hopefully into Florida and up the spine of the mountains. The only way we are going to get real rain where I am this summer.
 
1. Showers and thunderstorms continue over the Bay of Campeche in
association with a broad low pressure area. Gradual development of
this disturbance is possible during the next couple of days while it
meanders near the coast of Mexico. The system should begin to move
northward by midweek, and a tropical depression is likely to form
late in the week when the low moves across the central or
northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy
rainfall is possible over portions of Central America and southern
Mexico during the next several days. Heavy rains could also begin
to impact portions of the northern Gulf Coast on Friday. Please
consult products from your local meteorological service for more
information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
Now 20/70
 
Screenshot_20210614-171315_Chrome.jpgThe vort that could. Little stronger this run
 
Euro has GSP in sweet spot for these remnants
 
Claudette?

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue over the Bay
of Campeche and southern Mexico in association with a broad
low pressure area. This system is expected to move little during
the next day or two, and any development should be slow to occur
during that time period due to its close proximity to land.
However, the disturbance should begin to move northward by
Thursday, and a tropical depression is likely to form late in
the week when the low moves across the central and
northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development,
heavy rainfall will continue over portions of Central America
and southern Mexico during the next several days. Heavy rains
could also begin to impact portions of the northern Gulf Coast
on Friday. Please consult products from your local
meteorological service for more information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
 
12z models shifted way west with the track of the tropical system this weekend, now showing landfall in SE Texas again.

Probably still nothing of consequence here from a precipitation standpoint, but that could make the difference between a Sunny weekend and one with cloud debris (thus cooler temps).
 
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue over the Bay of
Campeche and southern Mexico in association with a broad low
pressure area. This system is expected to move little during the
next day or so, and any development should be slow to occur during
that time period. However, the disturbance should begin to move
northward by Thursday, and a tropical depression is likely to form
late in the week when the low moves across the central or
northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy
rainfall will continue over portions of Central America and southern
Mexico during the next several days. Heavy rains could also begin to
impact portions of the northern Gulf Coast on Friday. Please consult
products from your local meteorological service for more
information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
 
There looks to be a short period as this thing is approaching the coast for some development. Westerly shear and maybe a little bit of tugging from the trough moving down the east coast may try to keep it a lopsided for a while and may help to bias the track east as the center might try to chase convection a bit.
 
This thing is a mess, I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say models are too quick in developing the system (per usual), delayed development, means delayed northward movement, means more eastward track.... in my humble uneducated opinion.
 
000
ABNT20 KNHC 161744
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Jun 16 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue over the Bay of
Campeche and southern Mexico in association with a broad low
pressure area. This system will move little today and tonight, and
little if any development is expected during that time due to
interaction with land. However, the system should begin to move
northward on Thursday, and a tropical depression is likely to form
by late Thursday or on Friday when the low moves across the western
Gulf of Mexico. An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft
is scheduled to investigate the area on Thursday. Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall will continue over portions of Central
America and southern Mexico during the next few days. Heavy rains
should also begin to affect portions of the northern Gulf Coast on
Friday. Please consult products from your local meteorological
service for more information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
Alrighty seeing people on Twitter saying this is going to be a significant tornado event for Louisiana. ? Like c'mon. Lol tornadoes in tropical systems are like tornadoes in QCLS's. ? Also the thing hasn't even really gotten itself together or cams have came in so what's the point in saying these things lol
 
This thing is a mess, I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say models are too quick in developing the system (per usual), delayed development, means delayed northward movement, means more eastward track.... in my humble uneducated opinion.
Bingo. Wouldn’t be surprised to see it stay south of Atlanta, GA and exit off Charlestown, SC. Little to no impact for most of the Carolinas. It’s too early to tell tho I’m just going based off some climo storms.
 
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