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Tropical Tropical storm Claudette

Myfrotho704_ said:
That’s a nice double barrel jet w plenty of divergence aloft on top of that TC which would ensure it keeping or gaining strength over land, this might also play into a increased tornado threat View attachment 85455View attachment 85456
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That's what I was thinking the southern half of alabama is in play, some models push to near 4000 cape and with hodos looking like a snack. Leads to trouble. The spc convective outlook for that day the writer mentions tornadoes as being favorable.
 
Zander98al said:
That's what I was thinking the southern half of alabama is in play, some models push to near 4000 cape and with hodos looking like a snack. Leads to trouble. The spc convective outlook for that day the writer mentions tornadoes as being favorable.
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Also if it continues to strengthen as a post tropical storm on land, shear and inflow would be increased more. A very complex and interesting event. Things have synced into a weird combo,
 
The key is also finding a legit low level circulation for all the models to grasp onto… we’re still seeing some wild jumps from model to model about where this storm will be in 4-5 days because they don’t really have a specific point to go off of .. that will always create some confusion .. add into it an approaching cold front and placement will be key to what happens to us downstream
 
I've had a hard time getting into the storm cause my brain won't let me see it as anything but a mid-latitude system with a strong tropical wave riding a boundary. Come on. This is just a baroclinically-enhanced wave that's captured by the upper-level low. The upper level low is just capturing this sorry-excuse for a PTC while it's in Tropical waters, and momentarily strengthens the system by transferring energy at the upper levels, and wrapping up the system along a relatively diffuse boundary with converging winds that aid cyclonic curvature with shear blasts most of the moisture off to the East with the W and SW while moistures streams in from the SE. You look at every level on the model (250-10m), and it's similar to the mechanics you see in tornado set-up. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if there's a slight risk put out for Floribama Coastline. The PTC is only going to maintain tropical storm identity for 8-12 hours I understand naming systems that impact communities for safety, but many of the storms that receive names just look like strong mid-latitude storms that originate from the tropics, or gain momentary tropical characteristics. I need a system to maintain identity for 24 hours that's distinct from a frontal boundary.

And Sandy is usually the counter to these types of arguments, but that's a storm that had separate and distinct tropicaly identity previous to enhancement by a trough merging upper level energy into the system.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
The key is also finding a legit low level circulation for all the models to grasp onto… we’re still seeing some wild jumps from model to model about where this storm will be in 4-5 days because they don’t really have a specific point to go off of .. that will always create some confusion .. add into it an approaching cold front and placement will be key to what happens to us downstream
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This to me is an upper level system with two frontal boundaries (dry-line and tropical warm front). The LLC will focus as it is enhanced by the Upper Level Low while it interplays with a Ridge to form a pseudo (transient) negative tilt trough. Those aformentioned boundaries will collide and create a broad area of low pressure (convergence zone) East to West from Central LA to the Panhandle of FL, and the SW part of the system will be inundated with dry air that'll focus as a mechanism when it clashes with the tropical moisture from the SE. I have to imagine the lowest pressures will be closer to the SW, but it will be along an elongating area of low pressure. The primary driver for moving the area of lowest pressures and moisture will be the 250Mb wind maps and 400-700Mb Humidity.

So it looks like the are of convergence moves from Central and Eastern LA through AL and GA towards Western SC and NC. By day 4 and 5, it's heading of NC and VA and off the Delmarva and Jersey Coast. The focus for rain will be to the N, E and SE of this area of elongated low pressure, which is basically where the Tropical and Dry fronts are clashing.
 
AND THE 4AM
Capture.JPG
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Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
352 AM EDT Fri Jun 18 2021

Day 2
Valid 12Z Sat Jun 19 2021 - 12Z Sun Jun 20 2021

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST AND A MARGINAL RISK FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
OHIO VALLEY...

...Ohio, West Virginia and Pennsylvania...

Convection is expected to continue for this area. With the day 1
QPF over this region, FFG is expected to lower creating more
concerns for flooding potential. Latest QPF for this period shows
an additional 1 to 2 inches of precipitation falling on already
saturated grounds. The Marginal Risk area was left in play and
adjusted a bit to account for latest QPF guidance.

...Louisiana to Georgia...

Potential Tropical Cyclone 3 continues to trek across the SE CONUS
bringing heavy precipitation. Models have continued the easterly
trend in the track which has led to some adjustments to the
already in place Moderate Risk, Slight Risk, and Marginal Risk
areas to a more easterly tilt. Latest WPC QPF has 3 to 5 inches of
additional precipitation for portions of eastern MS, central AL,
up into GA. A few Hi-Res models show signals of 6 to 8 inches for
these areas, but with a bit more spread among the models,
confidence on these heavier signals remains on the lower end.

Chiari
 
Im going to go out on a huuuuuuge limb here and say alabama is going to see the continuing of it's spring tornado outbreaks and we're going to get a bunch of spinny boys from this spinny water boy. modernweenie
 
Zander98al said:
Im going to go out on a huuuuuuge limb here and say alabama is going to see the continuing of it's spring tornado outbreaks and we're going to get a bunch of spinny boys from this spinny water boy. modernweenie
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You can include Georgia in that as as well.....

The primary impact for north and central GA continues to be
periods of heavy rainfall as Gulf moisture surges across the area
Saturday night into Sunday. Please refer to the Hydrology section
below for details on the total rainfall forecast and impacts with
this system. Additionally, will have to monitor for a tornado
threat as the system passes through, primarily east of the low
where low-level shear will be maximized and co-located with at
least some amount of instability. The current wind forecast calls
for breezy conditions on Sunday, especially across portions of
central GA, with winds up to around 20 mph at times. This is below
Wind Advisory criteria, but will need to monitor the wind
forecast going forward.
 
Checking the 3km nam this morning there may be a substantial tornado risk along the coast and 100 so miles inland. STP is maxed out over portions of inland coast in alabama and Florida. Very tricky scenario.
 
Looks like the focal point for the stronger storms is along the warm front as it moves north. The experiential nado forecast may be picking up on things
 
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