Amazing how the those National Hurricane Center aren't buying the southern track at all and that we will see excessive rainfall. Stop going off one or 2 model runs and actually look at the whole picture here.This will be staying south of most of NC and upstate SC. The 0z GFS also says no to most of us from the cold front on Tuesday too. The Euro is still slowly trending south with this system too.
I mentioned this yesterday and I’ll say it again. Gulf tropical systems once inland always have a shield of heavy rain to the north and northwest of the center. Even with the more southern track like the EURO, which the NHC doesn’t seem to buying into right now, there should be significant rainfall even where this output shows it being mainly dry. The moist S to SE flow ahead of the center on this track would create a perfect upslope for north GA, SC upstate, and at least the southern half of the NC mountains and foothills. I don’t remember which storm last year coming out of the Gulf it was, but I remember how models were keeping those areas very dry 48-72 hours out only to see those spots end up with the heaviest rain even though the track pretty stayed on point.Really pulling for the Euro here. Most other models stink for rain
View attachment 85466
Yeah I wouldn’t be looking at 1 model here there’s clear guidance pointing towards the system as a whole traveling through the Carolinas and at least creating a widespread showers and thunderstorms type of day around here … might not be as much rain as they are getting further south west but it won’t be nothingAmazing how the those National Hurricane Center aren't buying the southern track at all and that we will see excessive rainfall. Stop going off one or 2 model runs and actually look at the whole picture here.
These things always over perform on the north and northwest sides. They much more spacious usually as well. I think widespread 2-5" is likely across most of the carolinas.Yeah I wouldn’t be looking at 1 model here there’s clear guidance pointing towards the system as a whole traveling through the Carolinas and at least creating a widespread showers and thunderstorms type of day around here … might not be as much rain as they are getting further south west but it won’t be nothing
If you go back and look at some old model runs I think that is what most of the slower left models keyed on. I found this old euro run where it has 2 closed sfc lows in an overall larger gyre.There's an obvious separate low-level low still way down at 21N and 95W. I wonder if it tries to develop as the main low moves steadily away?
Satellite Loop for Gulf of Mexico | Tropical Tidbits
Gulf of Mexico Satellite Loopwww.tropicaltidbits.com
Sure enough. Good catch!If you go back and look at some old model runs I think that is what most of the slower left models keyed on. I found this old euro run where it has 2 closed sfc lows in an overall larger gyre.
View attachment 85483
Once that deep persistent convection got going north of the Yucatan though it basically took over
Please don’t let Shitley be right??Really pulling for the Euro here. Most other models stink for rain
View attachment 85466
I believe on Tropical Tidbits, that yellow is like 8-10" or something like that. Pivotal here has it around 4". MehReally pulling for the Euro here. Most other models stink for rain
View attachment 85466
That triangle rain hole! Hug the Euro!UK is slowly leaking northView attachment 85489