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Tropical Tropical storm Claudette

This cell is tightening up heading due north west of were the long track tornado was. Maybe a little bit of untouched energy there. Screenshot_20210619-131408.png
 
That's why there going crazy lol. There interacting with the front.calso noted they say between now and 4 oclcok tornado risk should be peaking. 20210619_131733.jpg
 
This cell has had other convective development inhibit it's strengething. Although I doubt It last too much longer as the other cells are starting to merge. The one that produced the tornado to the north has slowly been decaying.Screenshot_20210619-132959.pngScreenshot_20210619-132947.png
 
6cfbbcc8ad9792d6dcdf0456eb220b0f.jpg



For western Carolina folks like myself flood watch issued


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Jessy89 said:
6cfbbcc8ad9792d6dcdf0456eb220b0f.jpg



For western Carolina folks like myself flood watch issued


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Great discussion from GSP explaining how even though the track of the center has nudged a bit south, the axis of heaviest rain on the all modeling now, including HiRes, is now set up to the NW of the track across NE GA, Upstate SC into SW NC. They mention the perfect moist flow setting up for upslope and better lift. They mentioned the Flood Watch may have to be expanded further east as well.
 
Y’all severe weenies should have chased to MS/AL
 
Chazwin said:
Great discussion from GSP explaining how even though the track of the center has nudged a bit south, the axis of heaviest rain on the all modeling now, including HiRes, is now set up to the NW of the track across NE GA, Upstate SC into SW NC. They mention the perfect moist flow setting up for upslope and better lift. They mentioned the Flood Watch may have to be expanded further east as well.
Click to expand...
Don’t let Shetley see this!!ADB0E970-0E71-4835-9182-CB9EEDF65EDE.png
 
I'm glad it missed us. We have had enough rain here lately. Got more rain coming Monday with a cool down for remainder of week.
 
AS OF 1100 PM EDT SATURDAY: A FEW CONVECTIVE CELLS PULSED OVER
PORTIONS OF THE AREA EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT QUICKLY WANED OFF
AS THE MORE STABLE TROPICAL RAIN BAND ENTERED THE CFWA. SEVERAL
FORECAST CHALLENGES ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF CLAUDETTE. THE
FIRST RAIN BAND HAS GRADUALLY LIFTED FARTHER NORTH INTO THE UPSTATE
AND NORTHEAST GA. EXPECT THIS BAND TO CONTINUE LIFTING INTO NC
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WITH THESE
TROPICAL RAINBANDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED, ESPECIALLY DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. AS THE REMNANTS MOVE FARTHER INTO THE DEEP SOUTH,
THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE PICKED UP IN THE WAVETRAIN AND PUSHED
FARTHER EAST, WITH THE CENTER OF THE REMNANT CIRCULATION SHIFTED
SOUTH OF OUR AREA. THE COMPLICATION IS THAT ALL GUIDANCE IS PICKING
UP ON AN AREA OF 850-700MB CONVERGENCE AND DEFORMATION, AND WITH
SUBSEQUENT RUNS WE HAVE INCREASING CONFIDENCE AS THE HIRES MODELS
ARE SHOWING THIS AREA EXPANDING ACROSS NORTH GA AND INTO THE
UPSTATE/SW NC. ADD TO THIS THE EASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE REMNANTS
WITH THE OROGRAPHIC UPGLIDE, AND SO CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASE WITH US
AND WPC TO BUMP UP THE QPF ALONG THE SC/NC BORDER. HREF PROBS ARE
SHOWING 50-60% FOR 5"+ OF RAINFALL IN NE GA AND STRETCHING INTO THE
NW UPSTATE. FOR NOW, HIGHEST BASIN-AVERAGE STORM TOTALS TOP OUT AT 3-
4" IN THE BORDER COUNTIES BUT WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF THESE AMOUNTS
END UP LOW. WITH THIS, THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH, WHICH HIGHLIGHTS THE NC/SC/GA BORDER AND ADJACENT
ESCARPMENT AREAS BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT
DEPENDING ON THE TRENDS.

TORNADO THREAT REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN AS SHEAR IS VERY HIGH BUT AS
ALWAYS THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE UNCLEAR IN THE TROPICAL
ENVIRONMENT. BEST INSTABILITY REMAINS WELL SOUTH BUT WITH THE SHEAR
CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE ANYTHING OUT. SPC MARGINAL REMAINS IN EXTREME
SOUTHERN ZONES, BUT CAMS ARE INDICATING THAT WE COULD CERTAINLY SEE
EMBEDDED LOW-TOPPED STORMS OR SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE LARGER RAIN
SHIELD EVEN DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT PERIOD SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR
CLOSELY. FINDING THAT HAPPY MEDIUM BETWEEN ENOUGH INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING AND LINGERING HELICITY SEEMS TO BE A CHALLENGE, BUT THE
HIRES MODELS ARE KEEN ON PRODUCING THE BEST ENVIRONMENT JUST BEFORE
DAYBREAK INTO THE LUNCHTIME PERIOD. DIURNAL RANGE WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW WITH HIGHS WELL BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS. THE CIRCULATION FOR CLAUDETTE IS ACTUALLY GAINING
STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES THE CAROLINAS AND IS TRENDING PER MODEL
GUIDANCE. THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OVERNIGHT AS THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER COULD INCREASE WITH A WARM SECTOR DEVELOP UNDERNEATH
SCATTERED ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION GLIDES ACROSS SC DURING THAT SAME TIME FRAME.

Interesting discussion from GSP tonight.
 
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