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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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Yup trapped in the trough now and it's tilting should accelerate into my backyard. Not what I was looking for

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18z may be way off or a true east trend. Other model do not agree with gfs
 
Shawn said:
It's been through Hugo and was fine... I would assume Irma will move quickly too! Shingles, that's another story lol.
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Well, the 18z makes it a mute point for me :) I like being in the bulls eye days ahead, if the winter storm adage holds true. It worries me to have it turn early this far out, lol. I'm not sure I trust not being in the bullseye.... I was counting on it missing me because the models were bringing it overhead, lol. T
 
The back and forth from west to east is crazy and very frustrating.
 
pcbjr said:
Last night was the spine of Florida, maybe west coast; now it's a Matthew-like almost redux ... Folks - there is still a good 48 hours +/- before anything is even close to "maybe certain" ... keep the grits in for now ...
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Its quite a bit from Matthew's track when all was said and done. Matthew's eyewall stays just off the coast until it got up this way (i think it supposedly made a short landfall close to Myrtle but i may be mistaken). Then went up and caused NC all kinds of problems. But either way, just one 18z run.. will be very important to see what the GEFS says here in a bit.
 
The key in this is going to be the shortwave...if the phase gets missed this is going to stay just ots...and depending on when the phase happens will determine where this monster makes landfall...
 
Give or take 3-6 hours even of the SW, and it drastically changes the landfall point. Freakin' forecast nightmare!
 
Shawn said:
Its quite a bit from Matthew's track when all was said and done. Matthew's eyewall stays just off the coast until it got up this way (i think it supposedly made a short landfall close to Myrtle but i may be mistaken). Then went up and caused NC all kinds of problems. But either way, just one 18z run.. will be very important to see what the GEFS says here in a bit.
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Did not mean to suggest it was Matthew 2 - only that some models are running up the coast today, like Matthew, while others were running in a wholly different direction less than 24 hours ago ... Was only making an analogy ...
 
pcbjr said:
Did not mean to suggest it was Matthew 2 - only that some models are running up the coast today, like Matthew, while others were running in a wholly different direction less than 24 hours ago ... Was only making an analogy ...
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Euro I think even struggled with Matthew in the short range if I'm not mistaken? Eventually it got the idea of what happened!
 
Shawn said:
Give or take 3-6 hours even of the SW, and it drastically changes the landfall point. Freakin' forecast nightmare!
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Your right Shawn. Any current movement of the storm will dramatically change the track
 
Shawn said:
Its quite a bit from Matthew's track when all was said and done. Matthew's eyewall stays just off the coast until it got up this way (i think it supposedly made a short landfall close to Myrtle but i may be mistaken). Then went up and caused NC all kinds of problems. But either way, just one 18z run.. will be very important to see what the GEFS says here in a bit.
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Won't learn much from the GEFS . The ensembles have such a large spread right now that a big east track or a big west would fit inside the ensemble envelope .

Such a huge model spread among the OPs

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Shawn said:
Give or take 3-6 hours even of the SW, and it drastically changes the landfall point. Freakin' forecast nightmare!
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Yep this type of approach is not easy to forecast 100 miles west or so and it's a Fl landfall

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My two cents is the GFS is probably too far east...but it shows what will happen if the phase is late and what may possibly happen if there's no phase...a frightening hurricane churning just off of the east coast but the main damage limited to coastal areas.
 
Storm5 said:
Won't learn much from the GEFS . The ensembles have such a large spread right now that a big east track or a big west would fit inside the ensemble envelope .

Such a huge model spread among the OPs

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I was just hoping to see a substantial idea/shift on many members to the East... to give this solution credit. The area 18z heads to, has been off and on both Euro and GFS periodically. This is a hard one to figure out.
 
GFS vs. mostly every other model. I've seen this movie before...it usually doesn't end well, but then again there's that "broken clock is right twice a day" thing to fall back on.
Only takeaway I have from all models today is Irma's track is still a clusterf--- of a mess to figure out past 72 hrs.
 
Stormlover said:
one run isn't a trend
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The GFS has been trending east in the last two runs and honestly is likely too far east sadly. This would be the best case considering the monster of a hurricane we're dealing with...but probably the least likely.

Edit: Actually the GFS stopped trending west yesterday.
 
Weatherlover92 said:
GFS vs. mostly every other model. I've seen this movie before...it usually doesn't end well, but then again there's that "broken clock is right twice a day" thing to fall back on.
Only takeaway I have from all models today is Irma's track is still a clusterf--- of a mess to figure out past 72 hrs.
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Totally different situation, but two years or maybe 3 ago, there was a big blizzard/system coming to the NE and the GFS definitely won out vs the Euro with the track. Most forecasts held onto the Euro and it was quite a bust. It does outperform sometimes! lol
 
Notice how the finger ridge gets eroded on this run and as soon as it does the storm gains a northward component to it's movement
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SD said:
I would assume that all data is being ingested as it's compiled but I could be wrong.

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Yeah - I'm looking for an answer since I've seen it said both ways, and frankly, this is one on which have no clue (among perhaps many other things ... LOL)
 
The GFS seems to latch onto a particular idea and hold it for about 24-36 hours and then shift and repeat. First it was NJ and the mid atlantic, then it shifted and showed NC hits. Then Florida. Now back to NC. It's almost like it's hoping to guess accurately lol
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
The GFS seems to latch onto a particular idea and hold it for about 24-36 hours and then shift and repeat. First it was NJ and the mid atlantic, then it shifted and showed NC hits. Then Florida. Now back to NC. It's almost like it's hoping to guess accurately lol
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Goofus gonna goofus. Very frustrating. We're not talking about a fun snowstorm here, either.
 
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