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Freezing Rain, Sleet, Snow, Rain...Kitchen Sink (12/15-16)

I have noticed the last few wedge events have been poor. Either the high was not strong enough, or anchored in very well etc.....Why can't we get a good wedge that drives in the low level dry air (SFC) and (925) with Td in the like the single digits....I know I am just talking/venting...but wedges have not been the same lately for sure.
 
tazaroo said:
I don't understand why this setup has been such a bust for most of us. We had pretty close to a classic CAD setup with strong HP pretty anchored and in a good position, yet the NE winds last night were anemic and did not do the job. I've seen much worse insitu CAD setups with fleeting HP and weker perform better.

Did something disrupt the NE flow or was the air North of us just not cold enough?
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Lack of snow pack to our north???
 
deltadog03 said:
I have noticed the last few wedge events have been poor. Either the high was not strong enough, or anchored in very well etc.....Why can't we get a good wedge that drives in the low level dry air (SFC) and (925) with Td in the like the single digits....I know I am just talking/venting...but wedges have not been the same lately for sure.
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And to further that every time I see a wedge showing on the models that looks iffy, going super conservative. Lol
 
Nice NE breeze this morning. Wasnt present last night as late as 11 pm. Think HP was just a tick slower geeting anchored in perfect postion. Hence moisture got going about same time. Better served to get it established funneling lower dps down several hrs before clouds precip roll in. Timing is everything, even in ice n cad deals.
 
deltadog03 said:
I have noticed the last few wedge events have been poor. Either the high was not strong enough, or anchored in very well etc.....Why can't we get a good wedge that drives in the low level dry air (SFC) and (925) with Td in the like the single digits....I know I am just talking/venting...but wedges have not been the same lately for sure.
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I truly think this didn’t have the cold push with it like you would normally see with a high in that location because of the lack of snowpack over the interior northeast. I think the result would have been at least a few degrees colder had this set up occurred with snowpack up north.
 
What track is the parent low supposed to take? Roughly from where to where? I know it’s changed from a couple of days ago.
 
deltadog03 said:
And to further that every time I see a wedge showing on the models that looks iffy, going super conservative. Lol
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Nothing to write home about anywhere near here that's for sure. If it were arctic air over a decent snow pack that would of been another story.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Lol mid-Atlantic weenies are getting pissed.

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They're really underestimating the warm air aloft surging in from the Atlantic and the storm simply isn't deep enough to pull in a deeper cold air mass in the mid to upper levels. The biggest winners are this storm system will definitely be the ones about 100-200 miles inland from the coast. Cold enough to get snow, but still getting enough of that rich moist atlantic air mass to get very heavy snowfall. Can't imagine what the rate of snowfall will be like in upper central PA when the CCB band comes through.
 
Most of the ice I had started sticking after 10am. Prob .15”. Very foggy and trees are glittering. Winter wonderland. Just a few grassy areas near the ground have ice. All metal objects are of course coated.
 
I was up in Durham last night and this morning for work, I was hoping for a slight glaze this morning, but it just never happened. I’m stopped for lunch in Burlington and just a cold rain at 34F. It looks like 85 is clear all the way back from google and thanks to the reports on here everywhere 85 and east is above freezing.
 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
Wow the ice has really accumulated since day break. Tapering off to freezing drizzle but the trees are beautiful. The sagging power lines, not so much.
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Very odd event here too why the ice started accumulating so late in the morning vs earlier.
 
tazaroo said:
I don't understand why this setup has been such a bust for most of us. We had pretty close to a classic CAD setup with strong HP pretty anchored and in a good position, yet the NE winds last night were anemic and did not do the job. I've seen much worse insitu CAD setups with fleeting HP and weker perform better.

Did something disrupt the NE flow or was the air North of us just not cold enough?
Click to expand...
Eh honestly this wasn’t an ideal set up ... we want our high pressures for CAD events to be as far south as they want to come.. souther PA would be nice or even northern Virginia .. also the cold air being produced by the high is modifying over the snowless east coast making it “warmer” than usual by the time it gets to us... semi stout low pressure brings a massive warm nose on top of all the other non ideal conditions makes for a dismal and eh ice storm for a select few
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
Eh honestly this wasn’t an ideal set up ... we want our high pressures for CAD events to be as far south as they want to come.. souther PA would be nice or even northern Virginia .. also the cold air being produced by the high is modifying over the snowless east coast making it “warmer” than usual by the time it gets to us... semi stout low pressure brings a massive warm nose on top of all the other non ideal conditions makes for a dismal and eh ice storm for a select few
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Also I could do without a transferring low pressure. Even if it transfers south of me. Doesn’t help our cause. Low traversing the FL Panhandle up the Gulf Stream and a sheared southern stream wave are the only ways we score. Anyone can feel free to argue with me on that but I know what I know. I prefer a wave entering Baja with cold air in place. That’s how you get it done around here.
 
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Nick_boynton_ said:
Eh honestly this wasn’t an ideal set up ... we want our high pressures for CAD events to be as far south as they want to come.. souther PA would be nice or even northern Virginia .. also the cold air being produced by the high is modifying over the snowless east coast making it “warmer” than usual by the time it gets to us... semi stout low pressure brings a massive warm nose on top of all the other non ideal conditions makes for a dismal and eh ice storm for a select few
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Ughhh wouldn’t bringing them as far south as northern Virginia suppress your moisture though ?
 
Lickwx said:
Ughhh wouldn’t bringing them as far south as northern Virginia suppress your moisture though ?
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Not quite .. CAD set ups occur when low pressure is moving into a reinforced high pressure thats had its air trapped by the mountains .. if the high doesn’t move that much it can reinforce the cold air while the low pressure moves through/around the high pressure system. This brings your crazy ice storms and even some big time snows ... the last fantasy storm on the GFS is a good example of an ideal CAD situation occurring for the south East... reinforcing cold dry air most of NC was sitting at 23 degrees and had either sleet/freezing rain/ or snow falling in those temperatures ... now that’s a heavy duty winter storm
 
I think my prediction verified well in my response to @iGRXY
Ollie Williams said:
I would dial it back. Ignore the Icon warm bias, because most other models agree with it just barely being into freezing north of I-85. Not a real good push of cold air to get an ice storm IMO. I’ve been burned so many times being around 32-33 degrees while the CMC says I get .50 inches of ice. If anybody gets anything outside of maybe a light coating, it’ll be maybe Winston-Salem northwestward. There’s the potential CAD trend, but don’t count on that happening, because it’s easy to get too excited. I have an extremely hard time seeing up in the upper 20’s, it’s just not that strong of climo setup. I could be wrong though.
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Literally the exact same thing happened that did back in January 2019. CAD really didn’t over-perform in the short term this time around.
 
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packfan98 said:
Well, here's proof that our high pressures don't always verify weaker than forecast. How about that 1040 in a pretty good location??? Maybe we can get another good setup over the next few weeks.View attachment 58087
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That High needed tobe in southern NY or Pa and set up 12hrs earlier imo. Its plenty stout enough buttiming and placement was never good enough for Sc/NC cad regions. Never got the low dew points that typically need to be down to Atlanta. Ot at least had to have a pretty cold dry air mass in place prior with Cad building in. Now around Christmas looks promising!
 
deltadog03 said:
I have noticed the last few wedge events have been poor. Either the high was not strong enough, or anchored in very well etc.....Why can't we get a good wedge that drives in the low level dry air (SFC) and (925) with Td in the like the single digits....I know I am just talking/venting...but wedges have not been the same lately for sure.
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You are exactly right. From the late 70's, 80's and even part of the 90' we had real Cad events. Not anymore though. Growing up before social media and weather models free to the public a rules of thumb was "the wind has to be blowing from the NE for us to get a major storm".
 
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