Ugh This reminds me of spring all over again, gfs folds while euro shows some crazy stuff
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September Sizzling Summer Segway
- Thread starter Tarheel1
- Start date
BufordWX
Member
I could be wrong but late September feels a little earlier then normal to be returning to these severe weather events again. Feels like we normally start seeing these by mid October typically.
BufordWX
Member
This also reminds me of last fall when the GFS was hundreds of miles farther east then the Euro only to rapidly correct back west in the 3-5 day range. Could be seeing something similar here.
Yeah I agree, but with the highly amplified pattern coming up, strong winds aloft is coming back, playing with fire, let’s hope that euro run was a fluke , but I am concerned if a trough digs to our west and slows down, that would be trouble, gfs could be to progressive like it typically is
BufordWX
Member
@Myfrotho704_ it may not be the best ensemble suite but it looks like the GEPS took a step in the Euros direction. 
EPS took a huge step towards the euro, gotta be kidding me... seems like when it comes to winter wx we can’t trend to something better but for severe wx we gotta trend towards it
NCSNOW
Member
AccuWeather forecasters say a massive shift in the weather pattern is on the way for North America next week. Summerlike heat is expected to build over the western United States as a surge of Arctic air is projected to plunge into the eastern half of the nation. Both high and low temperature records could be broken amid the extreme weather setup.
Cold wave for the eastern half of the US
An outbreak of the coldest air since last spring will sweep across much of the eastern half of the U.S. next week.
"The change in the pattern will come in two waves," said AccuWeather Long-Range Meteorologist Tyler Roys. "After a warmup during the second half of this week, an area of low pressure sweeping across southern Canada will usher in an initial cooldown again from the northern Plains through Great Lakes and into the Northeast during the second half of this weekend into early next week."
CLICK HERE FOR THE FREE ACCUWEATHER APP
The first push of cooler air will serve to bring temperatures back to near normal, or a little below normal for late September, and it will be limited to northern areas. Across the Southeast, temperatures will remain a few degrees above normal.
Normal highs are generally in the middle to upper 60s in the northern Plains, Great Lakes and Northeast during late September. Farther south, temperatures typically climb into the lower to mid-70s in the mid-Atlantic through the Ohio Valley and into the mid-Mississippi Valley, and upper 70s to low 80s across much of the Southeast and lower Mississippi Valley this time of year.
"The real cold shot will be ushered in later next week as a stronger storm system pushes from the northern Plains through the Great Lakes," Roys explained. "High pressure building down from northern Canada and a deep dip southward in the jet stream will bring a continuous flow of cold air straight from the Arctic, directed toward the eastern U.S. It may take until Friday or Saturday of next week for the cold to peak."
The core of the cold is expected to be aimed from the Midwest and Mississippi Valley to the Appalachians. From Wisconsin to the central Gulf Coast and from eastern Kansas to West Virginia, temperatures are forecast to be 10-20 degrees Fahrenheit below normal during the height of the cold shot.
Cold wave for the eastern half of the US
An outbreak of the coldest air since last spring will sweep across much of the eastern half of the U.S. next week.
"The change in the pattern will come in two waves," said AccuWeather Long-Range Meteorologist Tyler Roys. "After a warmup during the second half of this week, an area of low pressure sweeping across southern Canada will usher in an initial cooldown again from the northern Plains through Great Lakes and into the Northeast during the second half of this weekend into early next week."
CLICK HERE FOR THE FREE ACCUWEATHER APP
The first push of cooler air will serve to bring temperatures back to near normal, or a little below normal for late September, and it will be limited to northern areas. Across the Southeast, temperatures will remain a few degrees above normal.
Normal highs are generally in the middle to upper 60s in the northern Plains, Great Lakes and Northeast during late September. Farther south, temperatures typically climb into the lower to mid-70s in the mid-Atlantic through the Ohio Valley and into the mid-Mississippi Valley, and upper 70s to low 80s across much of the Southeast and lower Mississippi Valley this time of year.
"The real cold shot will be ushered in later next week as a stronger storm system pushes from the northern Plains through the Great Lakes," Roys explained. "High pressure building down from northern Canada and a deep dip southward in the jet stream will bring a continuous flow of cold air straight from the Arctic, directed toward the eastern U.S. It may take until Friday or Saturday of next week for the cold to peak."
The core of the cold is expected to be aimed from the Midwest and Mississippi Valley to the Appalachians. From Wisconsin to the central Gulf Coast and from eastern Kansas to West Virginia, temperatures are forecast to be 10-20 degrees Fahrenheit below normal during the height of the cold shot.
BufordWX
Member
GFS doing GFS things. Lol
Damn, gfs folding to the euro, classic 
BufordWX
Member
Did we honestly expect this time to be any different to the countless amount of other times?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah, we are quickly trending towards a severe weather outbreak for early next week.
That first trough when it was around day 10 had that look until models started going super progressive with it, seems out of nowhere it wants to dig and tilt to our west, euro seeing that first and gfs playing catch-up, at this point I’m not even suprised lol
Wow
Too far out, but better moisture/lift is often further west I could see foothills in play
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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Onset ice in Wilkes ? Or above 3000’?
As expected the response in cape has shifted further west During peaking heating Tuesday on the gefs 
Wilkes goes above 3,000 in several areas
This time of year even the mountains are more prone..Ashe County is ground zero in October. 
BufordWX
Member
12z Ukmet...
Yeah this isn’t gonna change for the better this run 
Lmao at this point 
I'd like to see what would happen if all that mess up north made it down to the bottom of the trough!
Brent
Member
So much for Monday being the hottest day...
BufordWX
Member
12z Euro slows it down even more. Main energy doesn’t even come through the Carolinas until Wednesday.
NoSnowATL
Member
Snowstorm
Severe wx outbreak here we come 
Definitely makes sense why severe is becoming a issue
don’t know the difference this makes in fall but the a -AAM/ph1/2 GWO Normally correlates to severe across the SE
don’t know the difference this makes in fall but the a -AAM/ph1/2 GWO Normally correlates to severe across the SE
NCSNOW
Member
Wedge/CAD day Friday: Highs upper 50's per RAH:
A Marginal Risk of Severe storms in the SE zones, mainly from
Laurinburg to FAY to GSB Friday afternoon and early evening.
Widespread rain elsewhere Friday, with some locally heavy rainfall
expected.
As the mid/upper level short wave trough pushes east across the
Appalachians, the low level surface wave (the remnants of Beta)
are expected get entrained into the trough over the eastern TN
Valley, Southern Appalachians, and then pulled east across NC
Friday afternoon. A coastal front will try to retreat inland into
southeastern NC during the morning, with widespread rain and some
isolated, elevated thunderstorms expected to be ongoing over western
and central NC at daybreak. This rain and isolated thunderstorm
action will work ENE across central NC Friday. An in-situ CAD event
is expected with strong stability with the widespread rain and low
cloudiness over the Piedmont. Temperatures will likely hold in the
60s (with upper 50s not out of the question in the NW Piedmont).
Highs near 75 in the SE zones will be possible.
The widespread rain/clouds will likely keep the coastal/warm front
from lifting too far into our region, likely stalling along or just
SE of the Interstate 95 corridor during the afternoon and early
evening. This may limit the severe weather risks to our far SE
zones, and may end up even farther SE than the current Marginal Risk
for severe issued by SPC. Regardless, as the trough and remnants of
Beta sweep across the state, rain will be widespread Friday. There
is a chance of thunderstorms, mainly in the SE during the afternoon
and early evening.
A Marginal Risk of Severe storms in the SE zones, mainly from
Laurinburg to FAY to GSB Friday afternoon and early evening.
Widespread rain elsewhere Friday, with some locally heavy rainfall
expected.
As the mid/upper level short wave trough pushes east across the
Appalachians, the low level surface wave (the remnants of Beta)
are expected get entrained into the trough over the eastern TN
Valley, Southern Appalachians, and then pulled east across NC
Friday afternoon. A coastal front will try to retreat inland into
southeastern NC during the morning, with widespread rain and some
isolated, elevated thunderstorms expected to be ongoing over western
and central NC at daybreak. This rain and isolated thunderstorm
action will work ENE across central NC Friday. An in-situ CAD event
is expected with strong stability with the widespread rain and low
cloudiness over the Piedmont. Temperatures will likely hold in the
60s (with upper 50s not out of the question in the NW Piedmont).
Highs near 75 in the SE zones will be possible.
The widespread rain/clouds will likely keep the coastal/warm front
from lifting too far into our region, likely stalling along or just
SE of the Interstate 95 corridor during the afternoon and early
evening. This may limit the severe weather risks to our far SE
zones, and may end up even farther SE than the current Marginal Risk
for severe issued by SPC. Regardless, as the trough and remnants of
Beta sweep across the state, rain will be widespread Friday. There
is a chance of thunderstorms, mainly in the SE during the afternoon
and early evening.
smast16
Member
Is it too early for "Delayed but not denied" posts?
Just now reached our high for the day at 65... This is perfect rain, cool, off and on intensity. Gloomy, but just the way I like it.
Gfs still taking steps towards the euro, it’s ridiculous how bad it really is 
Gfs and euro is the difference between a shortwave trough and a longwave trough, shortwave trough = higher chances of severe hazards while longwave not so much at all
BufordWX
Member
It looks like I will finally get my first real taste of a Fall cold front Sunday evening. I’m interested to see what the SPC puts out for day 3 tomorrow. I might have a shot at some sort of severe weather as it passes through. Also looks to be a bit breezy on the backside.
NOT what you want to see 