smast16
Member
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May be?
- Thread starter GaWx
- Start date
Strong start to the dry season.
Copy/paste May-September
This may put a temporary dent in the SE heat.
If that trough could slow 6 hours or so In the NE or amplify a bit more, given 500mb NW flow around 40-50kts and 700mb NW flow around 35-45kts, that would easily support a MCS, but the gfs brings it though to quick so storms develop in SE NC on Monday 
If there is a 500mb pattern that sucks no matter what day of the year it is this is it
Once that ridge breaks down, CAPE would at least advect in again, allowing diurnal convection, but this is farther out so meh 
Yep, move it east and its a very summery setup, shift it west and we can maybe get some NW flow MCS going on or at least maybe some frontal activity. Where its at, dead, measuring rain by the thimble
Nice model battle shaping up with the EPS basically saying lol to the cool down next week.
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
BufordWX
Member
Long range GFS already showing 100 for Atlanta on May 23rd. Must be that time of year.
I wonder if we can get one of those MCVs on Sunday or maybe even Monday along with the main energy 
ECMWF still looks solid for storms Monday 
Wouldn’t surprise me if we get a few downbursts/strong outflow winds on Monday given the inverted V soundings, 30+ degree T/DP spreads is favorable for damaging wind gusts 
ummmm
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
You mean 10 or 15 degrees warmer than forecast?
Unless something changes drastically I think we take a run at 100 memorial day weekend
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
It’s just January man, nothing new, but anyways no joke gefs is on crack, lol, but I like the chances of NW flow MCSs once that ridge breaks down around here
You mean 10 or 15 degrees COLDER than forecast?
There, I fixed it for ya!
But sadly, that is pretty accurate for summer. Wish I was wrong...
LickWx
Member
GFS looks decent for thunderstorms on Sunday 
also looks solid for thunderstorms (some severe) on Monday with enhanced flow at 500mb, soundings not bad for hail/downbursts and perhaps a MCS given the straight hodographs with decent 6-8km flow
also looks solid for thunderstorms (some severe) on Monday with enhanced flow at 500mb, soundings not bad for hail/downbursts and perhaps a MCS given the straight hodographs with decent 6-8km flow
Hopefully we can cash in on both days otherwise oof
I like this run, 500mb cutoff gets stuck under the ridge so the ridge can’t strengthen properly, means less heat, only if it could be a lock, lol 
It always get hotter and dry when a tropical system moves offshore to the north/east. A lot of sinking air on the west side. Think this induce the pattern change to dry and hot.
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Nice little “low” south of Tyler, Texas. May be we get tropical depression on land
Severe threat IMO is increasing Monday given the trend to a more amplified/better digging shortwave in the NE us bringing in stronger 500mb flow and slightly better low level wind profiles which would allow for more organized convection, @SD remember that CMC run we wanted to hug, well that run may have actually been onto something... MCS with that type of flow like the gfs shows is nearly a good bet 
LickWx
Member
Its been april like in savannah? I wish it was at least april like here, its been early to mid march like here.
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