• This website or discussions about the COVID-19 virus outbreak should be taken as entertainment. For official information on how to plan and prepare, please go to The Offical CDC Homepage By Clicking Here
  • Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

May be?

GaWx

Supporter
Member
Joined
Jan 5, 2017
Messages
7,514
Reaction score
15,771
Location
SAV, GA
If it’s ok with the powers here, here is a May thread inspired by Phil’s brilliant April post. If not, lock it. It wouldn’t at all hurt my feelings. I saw where Birdman’s thread isn’t being accepted for May due to too many having him on ignore.
 
Last edited:

pcbjr

Supporter
Member
Joined
Dec 10, 2016
Messages
10,457
Reaction score
13,850
Location
Gainesville, FL
If it’s ok with the powers here, here is a May thread inspired by Phil’s brilliant April post. If not, lock it. It wouldn’t at all hurt my feelings. I saw where Birdman’s thread isn’t being accepted for May due to too many having him on ignore.
Here's post #2 ... just to get the ball rolling ... brilliant from my end it is not (but thanks Larry!) ...
Phil


Screen Shot 2020-04-26 at 4.38.24 PM.png
 
Last edited:

SouthATLwx

Member
Joined
Dec 9, 2018
Messages
838
Reaction score
864
Location
Newnan, GA
Well, 2018 and 2019 were both back-to-back stupid torches for our region.

Surely, it can't happen a 3rd time...
 

GaWx

Supporter
Member
Joined
Jan 5, 2017
Messages
7,514
Reaction score
15,771
Location
SAV, GA
May be after all: keeping in mind the everpresent cold bias, the 12Z EPS has pretty solid BN in the SE, especially northern SE, during the 11-15 day period: even after allowing for it to be too cold due to cold bias, it would still only be near normal rather than AN

1588018436915.png

1588018476205.png
 

pcbjr

Supporter
Member
Joined
Dec 10, 2016
Messages
10,457
Reaction score
13,850
Location
Gainesville, FL
May be after all: keeping in mind the everpresent cold bias, the 12Z EPS has pretty solid BN in the SE, especially northern SE, during the 11-15 day period: even after allowing for it to be too cold due to cold bias, it would still only be near normal rather than AN

View attachment 40559

View attachment 40560
? ... LOL
 
Last edited:

Myfrotho704_

RidgeSZN
Member
Joined
Oct 15, 2018
Messages
7,765
Reaction score
11,925
Location
Concord NC
May be after all: keeping in mind the everpresent cold bias, the 12Z EPS has pretty solid BN in the SE, especially northern SE, during the 11-15 day period: even after allowing for it to be too cold due to cold bias, it would still only be near normal rather than AN

View attachment 40559

View attachment 40560
We need a switch from this pattern, bc once your shorten the wavelengths as time gets closer to verification, that trough could mean severe WX then a cool down (troughs around this time often mean severe) we needa get the heat dome cranking
 

GaWx

Supporter
Member
Joined
Jan 5, 2017
Messages
7,514
Reaction score
15,771
Location
SAV, GA
The temperature anomalies at the end of the Euro are absolutely incredible.View attachment 40610View attachment 40611
Wow, May be? That 0Z Euro has @pcbjr at only 56 at 2PM on 5/7 under lingering clouds and solid winds just after the front has come through, which would be 29 cooler than the normal for 2PM of 85!! That would be fantabulous! But of course, we know there’s a cold bias with all of the models and that that almost definitely would be way overdoing it. So, I don’t look at the detail here as much as the prospect for another period of continental origin unseasonably comfortable SE air in early May being probable for a couple of days. To that, I reiterate May be?

Edit: Other models, including the 0Z EPS and the 12Z GFS/GEFS/CMC are averaging a good 20 F warmer than that 56 at Phil’s place or 75+. But even that’s somewhat BN. If GNV could manage something below 70 at 2PM on 5/7, I’d take it in a heartbeat.
 
Last edited:

Arcc

Supporter
Member
Joined
Jan 5, 2017
Messages
4,198
Reaction score
6,812
Location
Extreme North Coosa County
We need a switch from this pattern, bc once your shorten the wavelengths as time gets closer to verification, that trough could mean severe WX then a cool down (troughs around this time often mean severe) we needa get the heat dome cranking
NO! Keep it as cool as possible as long as possible. These ~70 day time temps are glorious.
 

GeorgiaGirl

Member
Joined
Jan 5, 2017
Messages
5,043
Reaction score
3,445
Location
Augusta, GA
I'm stuck in between.

I'm not a big fan of heat and would like to delay that for as long as possible.

However if severe threats are gonna keep occurring and 85+ degree heat helps taper down the virus some, bring on the mid to upper 80s.

I suppose if May has completely torched of late, we're overdue for an average May as well though.
 

GaWx

Supporter
Member
Joined
Jan 5, 2017
Messages
7,514
Reaction score
15,771
Location
SAV, GA
May be? I know, we need to be wary of the everpresent cold bias that I constantly remind folks about. But even after adjusting for that, it looks good for nice dry continental air:

12Z Euro for 18Z on 5/8:
@pcbjr is at 75 (~10 BN) with dewpoint only near 40 and RH of only 29%! This is like Colorado in mid summer. Of course, it may be overdoing how much BN but it still looks promising for dry, regardless, with the continental airmass influence:
1588187340503.png
 

Myfrotho704_

RidgeSZN
Member
Joined
Oct 15, 2018
Messages
7,765
Reaction score
11,925
Location
Concord NC
I don’t think this is worth a thread, but Sunday evening looks quite interesting for NC/SC/TN, a decaying thunderstorm complex (maybe a MCS) and it’s outflow pushes into a environment with moderate-high SBcape, and modest deep layer shear, CIPS really pinging a hail threat, with wind as a close second, storms would likely fire back up with the better cape/Theta E ridge, other than the supercell trio event this could be another hail event E702388F-7FC8-42E0-A534-B6E342E2FCF2.png 6949D352-EDEB-46BB-81F2-409E2BE5B985.png A66D256E-C011-4ADB-AC11-FDFC2DFE0493.png E5F0EF7F-2794-464B-98B7-B1888816E2CB.jpeg 8E27EB46-0D1D-4359-8AFD-961D4E6E1BC6.jpeg
 
Top