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May be?

GaWx

GaWx

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If it’s ok with the powers here, here is a May thread inspired by Phil’s brilliant April post. If not, lock it. It wouldn’t at all hurt my feelings. I saw where Birdman’s thread isn’t being accepted for May due to too many having him on ignore.
 
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GaWx said:
If it’s ok with the powers here, here is a May thread inspired by Phil’s brilliant April post. If not, lock it. It wouldn’t at all hurt my feelings. I saw where Birdman’s thread isn’t being accepted for May due to too many having him on ignore.
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Here's post #2 ... just to get the ball rolling ... brilliant from my end it is not (but thanks Larry!) ...
Phil


Screen Shot 2020-04-26 at 4.38.24 PM.png
 
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Well, 2018 and 2019 were both back-to-back stupid torches for our region.

Surely, it can't happen a 3rd time...
 
May be after all: keeping in mind the everpresent cold bias, the 12Z EPS has pretty solid BN in the SE, especially northern SE, during the 11-15 day period: even after allowing for it to be too cold due to cold bias, it would still only be near normal rather than AN

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GaWx said:
May be after all: keeping in mind the everpresent cold bias, the 12Z EPS has pretty solid BN in the SE, especially northern SE, during the 11-15 day period: even after allowing for it to be too cold due to cold bias, it would still only be near normal rather than AN

View attachment 40559

View attachment 40560
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? ... LOL
 
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GaWx said:
May be after all: keeping in mind the everpresent cold bias, the 12Z EPS has pretty solid BN in the SE, especially northern SE, during the 11-15 day period: even after allowing for it to be too cold due to cold bias, it would still only be near normal rather than AN

View attachment 40559

View attachment 40560
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We need a switch from this pattern, bc once your shorten the wavelengths as time gets closer to verification, that trough could mean severe WX then a cool down (troughs around this time often mean severe) we needa get the heat dome cranking
 
BufordWX said:
The temperature anomalies at the end of the Euro are absolutely incredible.View attachment 40610View attachment 40611
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Wow, May be? That 0Z Euro has @pcbjr at only 56 at 2PM on 5/7 under lingering clouds and solid winds just after the front has come through, which would be 29 cooler than the normal for 2PM of 85!! That would be fantabulous! But of course, we know there’s a cold bias with all of the models and that that almost definitely would be way overdoing it. So, I don’t look at the detail here as much as the prospect for another period of continental origin unseasonably comfortable SE air in early May being probable for a couple of days. To that, I reiterate May be?

Edit: Other models, including the 0Z EPS and the 12Z GFS/GEFS/CMC are averaging a good 20 F warmer than that 56 at Phil’s place or 75+. But even that’s somewhat BN. If GNV could manage something below 70 at 2PM on 5/7, I’d take it in a heartbeat.
 
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Myfrotho704_ said:
We need a switch from this pattern, bc once your shorten the wavelengths as time gets closer to verification, that trough could mean severe WX then a cool down (troughs around this time often mean severe) we needa get the heat dome cranking
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NO! Keep it as cool as possible as long as possible. These ~70 day time temps are glorious.
 
I'm stuck in between.

I'm not a big fan of heat and would like to delay that for as long as possible.

However if severe threats are gonna keep occurring and 85+ degree heat helps taper down the virus some, bring on the mid to upper 80s.

I suppose if May has completely torched of late, we're overdue for an average May as well though.
 
May be? I know, we need to be wary of the everpresent cold bias that I constantly remind folks about. But even after adjusting for that, it looks good for nice dry continental air:

12Z Euro for 18Z on 5/8:
@pcbjr is at 75 (~10 BN) with dewpoint only near 40 and RH of only 29%! This is like Colorado in mid summer. Of course, it may be overdoing how much BN but it still looks promising for dry, regardless, with the continental airmass influence:
1588187340503.png
 
I don’t think this is worth a thread, but Sunday evening looks quite interesting for NC/SC/TN, a decaying thunderstorm complex (maybe a MCS) and it’s outflow pushes into a environment with moderate-high SBcape, and modest deep layer shear, CIPS really pinging a hail threat, with wind as a close second, storms would likely fire back up with the better cape/Theta E ridge, other than the supercell trio event this could be another hail event E702388F-7FC8-42E0-A534-B6E342E2FCF2.png6949D352-EDEB-46BB-81F2-409E2BE5B985.pngA66D256E-C011-4ADB-AC11-FDFC2DFE0493.pngE5F0EF7F-2794-464B-98B7-B1888816E2CB.jpeg8E27EB46-0D1D-4359-8AFD-961D4E6E1BC6.jpeg
 
BufordWX said:
Dang, the Icon has a high of 51 in Atlanta on May 6th. Almost definitely overdone but it’s crazy to see these type of temperatures even appearing on the models this time of year.View attachment 40729
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I’ll take it after this temporary warm up this weekend/early next week, because GWO/AAM looks like there gonna transition to phases that support heat around the end of May and a active severe wx pattern for the plains, including that NE PAC jet extension which supports a west coast trough/east coast/SER, but that’s still likely a ways outBD74E60D-182B-4D6D-910B-A634CCEA0AFF.png
 
ECMWF isn’t excited about cape on Sunday, it’s ensembles are split on it around 50/50 on Sunday, but the GFS/GEFS are in agreement on Sunday for some severe wx with a backdoor front, once again it’s showing there’s a pretty high hail threat 14F5C8A3-D3B3-4AFF-B5EB-FA34308A60CF.jpegFBFAE380-4DFA-4F0A-B361-0E545EF2428F.jpegFFAA3736-AC49-499E-B46E-095D9AEA423D.jpeg
 
This from TWC. Looks warm and balmy for Atlanta, Dallas, Orlando. Much cooler further north. Ive never even seen the pink shading they have for the UP of Michigan.Screenshot_2020-04-30-17-03-40~2.png
 
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