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May be?

GaWx

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If it’s ok with the powers here, here is a May thread inspired by Phil’s brilliant April post. If not, lock it. It wouldn’t at all hurt my feelings. I saw where Birdman’s thread isn’t being accepted for May due to too many having him on ignore.
 
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If it’s ok with the powers here, here is a May thread inspired by Phil’s brilliant April post. If not, lock it. It wouldn’t at all hurt my feelings. I saw where Birdman’s thread isn’t being accepted for May due to too many having him on ignore.
Here's post #2 ... just to get the ball rolling ... brilliant from my end it is not (but thanks Larry!) ...
Phil


Screen Shot 2020-04-26 at 4.38.24 PM.png
 
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Well, 2018 and 2019 were both back-to-back stupid torches for our region.

Surely, it can't happen a 3rd time...
 
May be after all: keeping in mind the everpresent cold bias, the 12Z EPS has pretty solid BN in the SE, especially northern SE, during the 11-15 day period: even after allowing for it to be too cold due to cold bias, it would still only be near normal rather than AN

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May be after all: keeping in mind the everpresent cold bias, the 12Z EPS has pretty solid BN in the SE, especially northern SE, during the 11-15 day period: even after allowing for it to be too cold due to cold bias, it would still only be near normal rather than AN

View attachment 40559

View attachment 40560
? ... LOL
 
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May be after all: keeping in mind the everpresent cold bias, the 12Z EPS has pretty solid BN in the SE, especially northern SE, during the 11-15 day period: even after allowing for it to be too cold due to cold bias, it would still only be near normal rather than AN

View attachment 40559

View attachment 40560
We need a switch from this pattern, bc once your shorten the wavelengths as time gets closer to verification, that trough could mean severe WX then a cool down (troughs around this time often mean severe) we needa get the heat dome cranking
 
The temperature anomalies at the end of the Euro are absolutely incredible.View attachment 40610View attachment 40611

Wow, May be? That 0Z Euro has @pcbjr at only 56 at 2PM on 5/7 under lingering clouds and solid winds just after the front has come through, which would be 29 cooler than the normal for 2PM of 85!! That would be fantabulous! But of course, we know there’s a cold bias with all of the models and that that almost definitely would be way overdoing it. So, I don’t look at the detail here as much as the prospect for another period of continental origin unseasonably comfortable SE air in early May being probable for a couple of days. To that, I reiterate May be?

Edit: Other models, including the 0Z EPS and the 12Z GFS/GEFS/CMC are averaging a good 20 F warmer than that 56 at Phil’s place or 75+. But even that’s somewhat BN. If GNV could manage something below 70 at 2PM on 5/7, I’d take it in a heartbeat.
 
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We need a switch from this pattern, bc once your shorten the wavelengths as time gets closer to verification, that trough could mean severe WX then a cool down (troughs around this time often mean severe) we needa get the heat dome cranking

NO! Keep it as cool as possible as long as possible. These ~70 day time temps are glorious.
 
I'm stuck in between.

I'm not a big fan of heat and would like to delay that for as long as possible.

However if severe threats are gonna keep occurring and 85+ degree heat helps taper down the virus some, bring on the mid to upper 80s.

I suppose if May has completely torched of late, we're overdue for an average May as well though.
 
We’re actually getting spring weather this year instead of jumping right into summer .


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Maybe just maybe the global patterns are shifting out of this two year cycle.
 
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