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Possible Severe Weather April 22nd-23rd

I will say it does many people a disservice when local Mets downplay any severe threat. I understand the need/want for accuracy, but as has been aforementioned, people don't follow the SPC maps or outlooks, for the most part. They stick to their local stations. What a real pain in the arse this forecast is shaping up to be...
 
Webberweather53 said:
3km NAM says lol what‘s surface based cape. Warm sector gets pushed back into Florida near and just after peak heating.
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We need several:

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GIFS and stickers for tomorrow...


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I favor them to be overkill just a little to get majority of public attention. Lot don't even care about weather until it interferes with what they are doing.
 
Checking out the short range HRRR it has the QCLS going through fast tommorow. Tommorow could either be a big boom or a bust. Im going to lean in the middle
 
We shall see. Sfc low is further north vs Sunday, but morning convection and rain or storms along the gom coast will definitely make for a more less threatening storm for sure.
 
With regards to Thursday, I think this has a little more legs to stand on as we'll have much stronger S and SW flow at the surface with stronger jetting vs the event a couple days ago.

It also appears we're going to have some steeper lapse rates to work with too.
Unfortunately, we're going to have to nowcast this event.
 
ryan1234 said:
I think that LLJ is going to play a major influence, at least here in GA/Carolina's. I would not be surprised to see enhanced risk remain.
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Correct. Looks like tomorrow's winds outside of storms are expected to be close to or strong enough to hoist a wind advisory locally (Charleston Tri County area).

Also noticed it looks like quite a strong mid level westerly jet in tandem which lends credence to potential of rapid airmass recovery as drying aloft occurs in tandem with the LLJ/southerly flow.
 
I just don't see the need for a level 3 threat here for tomorrow. Saturday looks like a different story.
 
Dawgdaze22 said:
What is happening tomorrow


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who knows at this point, anything from sunshine and absolutely nothing to strong tornados is basically what iv gathered today, also time frame widely varies by 3-5 hours
 
tempo47 said:
who knows at this point, anything from sunshine and absolutely nothing to strong tornados is basically what iv gathered today, also time frame widely varies by 3-5 hours
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Same here. I’ve gathered that it’s basically gonna be one thing of rain or it’s gonna be lots of supercells


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In regards to tomorrow, I think we are in nowcast time. It is gonna be interesting to see how storms evolve to the west this evening and tonight. I think how the radar looks tomorrow morning will tell us a lot about the threat areas.
 
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