Snowflowxxl
Member
4/5/17 is my comparison for this event for now.
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Possible Severe Weather April 22nd-23rd
- Thread starter Darklordsuperstorm
- Start date
Dawgdaze22
Member
Still looks like a nasty line on the CAMS tho they still got over 2 days to change, lots of uncertainty with this one 
Yeah this one still has potential to be big, all it takes is a shift in the MCS miles north to setup a pseudo warm front in areas like N AL/GA into NC, or ofc it can go the other way and go south like the NAM shows, but where this MCS begins slowing down and trains, is likely where the boundary will setup and storms will form along it/south of it, sorta similar to the last system which was a MCS 
Jrips2710
Member
This probably got posted this morning but NWS Birmingham didn't seem too enthused. Appreciate that they don't always follow the SPC map exactly. They typically have a good idea of what to expect...
"This lead impulse will greatly impact the prospects for severe weather from the late morning into the afternoon on Thursday. Models have trended a bit slower with the 500 mb trough and surface low which could allow for greater refocusing along the cold front. The 12 km NAM is very bullish with eye-popping parameters based on an idealistic scenario, the kind that rarely seem to verify. At this time, this has a low probability of occurring, but if it does, a significant tornado threat would be on the table. Many times the 12 km NAM`s convective scheme
minimizes the impact of the lead impulse, and this could very well be case in this situation. The most likely scenario is for morning storms to result in an effective warm front across the middle of our area, with veered surface winds across the warm sector. However, substantial instability is likely to develop by early afternoon across the warm sector, with CAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg and strong 0-6 km shear in place. Storm initiation will depend on how much low-level convergence can develop behind the morning storms. Any storms in this environment will be capable of producing damaging winds, large hail, and perhaps a tornado."
"This lead impulse will greatly impact the prospects for severe weather from the late morning into the afternoon on Thursday. Models have trended a bit slower with the 500 mb trough and surface low which could allow for greater refocusing along the cold front. The 12 km NAM is very bullish with eye-popping parameters based on an idealistic scenario, the kind that rarely seem to verify. At this time, this has a low probability of occurring, but if it does, a significant tornado threat would be on the table. Many times the 12 km NAM`s convective scheme
minimizes the impact of the lead impulse, and this could very well be case in this situation. The most likely scenario is for morning storms to result in an effective warm front across the middle of our area, with veered surface winds across the warm sector. However, substantial instability is likely to develop by early afternoon across the warm sector, with CAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg and strong 0-6 km shear in place. Storm initiation will depend on how much low-level convergence can develop behind the morning storms. Any storms in this environment will be capable of producing damaging winds, large hail, and perhaps a tornado."
Brent
Member
yikes
hopefully we can get an early round to work over the atmosphere. The radar in Oklahoma is a lot busier than I expected
The NWS here seems to think it'll be worse to the east of Dallas
Shaggy
Member
Yeah not liking the look on the broken line over SC/NC.......wouldn't be writing this one off just yet.
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At this point I could see this go either way. This could get ugly quick. IMHO, at this point, you better hope for a MCS or something to choke out the upper parts of the region. I think the MCS is the less likely situation right now.
farleydawg792
Member
Agree.. If that MCS does not form, AL/GA and even into SC are going to see the event escalate quickly.
It's very odd seeing the NMMB being much more aggressive than the ARW. Kind of makes me pause.
CAMs have been on and off with MCSs, especially around the S central US, in TX there have been a few busted MCSs which never developed, and one that did develop, developed north of its forecasted area, COVID 19 is really messing with the models
Starting to see warm sector hodographs have destructive VBV in around 2-4km in them as well
GFS shows that MCS 
farleydawg792
Member
farleydawg792
Member
Just a bit of information, the RAP performed the worst by far of the short range models the last event.
RAP was pretty terrible last event for sure. I think if you don't like SVR storms, the 00z run was a better run for sure. I wouldn't go MDT in new day 2 in a few hours. not yet....
farleydawg792
Member
Agreed, but its interesting to see the models still do not have a consistent grasp on this system. Tomorrows short range runs will tell us so much more!
Absolutely. Just adding a tidbit on its performance.