Gonna be a big HRRR run. Storms firing and this is the environment ahead.
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Possible Severe Weather April 22nd-23rd
- Thread starter Darklordsuperstorm
- Start date
Snowflowxxl
Member
The morning "mess" gets out in a hurry on the HRRR. I still am not sure if thats actually gonna be the case, but if so ruh roh
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Mayday if true...
BufordWX
Member
V4 not looking any better.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Really depends sometimes o. How long the mess beforehand hangs around. Sometimes it can make things more stable for the afternoon, but sometimes it can make things more humid and worse for the second round.
Hrrrv4 needa chill 
I know it's just a model, but right on top of us???
I think we are getting back to watching how fast low level winds veer now.
I still feel like that is a very real possibility.
ngl, I'm a little concerned for north ATL metro between 6-10 tomorrow.
I think the question will be is there enough low level helicity to put tornadoes in the ground or will we see nice supercell presentation and some hail yet little or weak ground truth.
Better instability south and east better dynamics north and west
Snowflowxxl
Member
RAP is on crack showing apocalyptic situation. I'm still saying that I don't see much happening tomorrow.
SWB
Member
Looks like we have line headed toward Central Arkansas that is still active. One tornado warning now.
Darklordsuperstorm
Member
Damn hrrr going off tonight. Still questions with this one
Kinda surprised this doesn't have a tor warning
BufordWX
Member
12km Nam is farther south. Atlanta and places North stay in the mid 50s all day.
NoSnowATL
Member
Crazy. Forecast high is 68 so we will see. It’s amazing how wide the uncertainty is with this event less then 24hrs away.
I don't buy the 12km NAM. It's way off from what 3km NAM and HRRR are showing.
BufordWX
Member
3km Nam has sped up the morning MCS a tad. Looks somewhat similar to the Hrrr.
Snowflowxxl
Member
NAM 3k doesn't have much of an afternoon threat. Maybe just storms but don't look anywhere near severe.
pcbjr
Member
it ain't gonna snow though ...
bingcrosbyb
Member
Looking tighter
Snowflowxxl
Member
#MarginalSprinkles
Brent
Member
This thing is insane
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
I think it is anyone's guess how bad it will or won't be tomorrow. Can't count on the models with the way they are all over the place.
NSSL WRF will be close.
Yikes 
Another good point. A cold pool aloft will help with that, drop the cap (if any) and maybe promote hailers too?
Brent
Member
The only good news about that LA supercell is it may miss the population in Alexandria
bingcrosbyb
Member
It cycled. Crap. TDS 
ARW is close too.
NMM - B looks very messy 
I think its very possible...There is almost a 2nd speed max that rotates through.
bingcrosbyb
Member
At 9:20 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was located near Elmer, or 10 miles east of Hineston, moving east at 40
mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!
mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!
BufordWX
Member
FWIW, Hrrr still going at it.
Brent
Member
Um it's outside the polygon
BufordWX
Member
Someone is sleeping on the job.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Boy that's one nasty hook and they definitely need to extend the polygon (actually just issue another).
Brent
Member
This is an epic fail by Lake Charles right here yikes
