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4/19/20-4/20/20 Severe Weather

gawxnative said:
Seeing in some tweets SPC going High Risk in Day 1 coming out shortly??
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Yep this guy says that’s what they are saying in the NWS chat. Looks to be for SE Mississippi into central and southern Alabama. Moderate expanded further east too. If this is true of course.
 
BufordWX said:
Yep this guy says that’s what they are saying in the NWS chat. Looks to be for SE Mississippi into central and southern Alabama. Moderate expanded further east too. If this is true of course.
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NOT the breaking news I would want... with "ours" being overnight most likely... Ok while keeping 6 foot seperation.. everyone line up, facing south and play part of Big Bad Wolf from the 3 Little Pigs... LOL
 
I'm honestly a little surprised. I said early yesterday that I could see a high risk if everything was playing out perfectly. Honestly though my confidence is less in that at this point. Not that the danger is less, just more uncertain at this point. That said the latest RAP is a nightmare. Much more bullish on instability than the WRFs or HRRR. Would also paint a significant nighttime issue for central AL.
 
Arcc said:
I'm honestly a little surprised. I said early yesterday that I could see a high risk if everything was playing out perfectly. Honestly though my confidence is less in that at this point. Not that the danger is less, just more uncertain at this point. That said the latest RAP is a nightmare. Much more bullish on instability than the WRFs or HRRR.
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Yes was thinking that with everything of last week, that one looked more "needing" of High Risk... with the "record" wind fields/shear.
 
Last I saw looks like SPC might be changing there mind at the last second. Might not be a high risk.

Edit: Yep, no high risk but moderate expanded east some.
 
Arcc said:
Looks like it's falling to the RAP, which is downright nasty. The nocturnal threat on the RAP has sbcapes ~2000 with helicity increasing to 400+ up to BHM.
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yeah That nocturnal threat ain’t no joke, hodographs are actually quite similar to the ones observed with the Easter system during the night, hodograph is very cylonic up into the troposphere aswell which may help supercellular structures break out in the line B1FD39CD-3C4D-4056-BC3D-1DFC04503F10.png
 
Must say, I am surprised of the larger area of enhanced in SC. but.. to be fair wind is probably a factor regardless.
 
Arcc said:
Looks like it's falling to the RAP, which is downright nasty. The nocturnal threat on the RAP has sbcapes ~2000 with helicity increasing to 400+ up to BHM.
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What is interesting about that is the HRRR played catch up all the way until the event happened last week around here.
 
Tuscaloosa already getting some active weather early this morning. Under a severe warning for 70 MPH winds and quarter sized hail.0ECF05BE-E8E1-48F2-AB53-96221450348E.jpeg
 
Welp, that didn't take long...

1587299218052.png

Mesoscale Discussion 0401
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0722 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020

Areas affected...portions of central and southeastern TX into far
western LA

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 191222Z - 191415Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity will increase through the morning
from central into southeastern Texas. Very large hail, a few
tornadoes and damaging wind gusts are all possible. A tornado watch
will likely be needed in the next 1-2 hours.

DISCUSSION...Elevated convection is increasing this morning across
portions of central TX with large-scale ascent increasing as a
shortwave trough begins to eject eastward from NM into western TX.
Initial convection will likely remain elevated for a couple of hours
until stronger heating after sunrise allows surface inhibition to
erode and as a warm front draped across the area continues to lift
northward. Nevertheless, very steep midlevel lapse rates (7.5-8.5
C/km) are contributing to MUCAPE values around 2000 J/kg per 12z
mesoanalysis and the 12z FWD RAOB. Effective shear is sufficient for
storm organization currently, and will continue to improve over the
next few hours. Large hail (some potentially greater than 2 inches
in diameter) will be the main concern in the immediate near-term,
especially with any discrete cells.

With time, convection will become surface-based as it approaches far
eastern TX and the Sabine River Valley late this morning. As this
occurs, an increasing threat for tornadoes and damaging winds will
accompany convection. While low level hodographs will become
enlarged by late morning into the afternoon, deep-layer winds are
rather unidirectional above 3km. This could result in storm
interactions and clustering toward midday, with a mix of
semi-discrete cells and clusters/bowing segments. As such, all
severe hazards are anticipated and some locations could see more
than one round of severe storms.

..Leitman/Hart.. 04/19/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON 30149405 29459444 29049499 28729556 28669603 28849667
29239735 29749777 30429783 31119772 31729739 32109698
32549626 32729558 32749490 32599438 32379412 31819386
31329375 30529391 30149405
 
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