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4/19/20-4/20/20 Severe Weather

Jrips2710 said:
3K NAM verbatim doesn't get the ATL metro above 60 all day Sunday or overnight. That's not to say the threat would be eliminated but I would think cool temps would dampen the significant severe threat pretty good.

Might be a pretty crazy gradient along that warm front. This is right before the main activity starts Sunday night View attachment 39702
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If anything our biggest threat would probably be heavy rain and isolated flooding issues.
 
Monster hail sounding around Clanton, AL on the 3km NAM. You don't see this type of instability in AL.

nam4km_2020041800_045_32.56--86.56.png
 
accu35 said:
Your the "Meteorologist " you tell us
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It's not time be a jackhole, I just asked because I know plenty people on this forum with a lot of meteorology experience. Btw I am an aspiring Meteorologist so have a seat @accu35 and learn to mind your business because I KNOW you did not know the answer to my question.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
NAM is creeping north with STP View attachment 39700View attachment 39701
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Definitely doubtful we’ll have enough legit non zero cape here in Charlotte, significant cold air damming develops out in front of the main surge before the warm sector gets here and is probably reinforced by diabatic heating from all the convection that’ll be overhead
 
Webberweather53 said:
Definitely doubtful we’ll have enough legit non zero cape here in Charlotte, significant cold air damming develops out in front of the main surge before the warm sector gets here and is probably reinforced by diabatic heating from all the convection that’ll be overhead
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Yeah, it’s close for areas near Columbia SC, we’ll probably just get the elevated stuff from how stable the PBL will be, I don’t mind a break because next week looks active
 
Webberweather53 said:
Definitely doubtful we’ll have enough legit non zero cape here in Charlotte, significant cold air damming develops out in front of the main surge before the warm sector gets here and is probably reinforced by diabatic heating from all the convection that’ll be overhead
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@Webberweather53 what you think for us here in Southern SC?
 
If the 3KM NAM is close to right, Southern SC is looking at another possible round of tornadoes and wind damage.

Keywords: "if" and "nam"

With that said, it's not far from the Midlands, either. There's a few limiting factors, but overall we'll probably be seeing storms sweep across the state again.

Also to the earlier question about the Euro being slower (i haven't looked tonight), it was too slow last event too.
 
Also, for the SC questions, this looks pretty good right now with the Enhanced area.. but as we get closer we are gonna have to watch just how far North that warm front gets for more inclusion of the Midlands, along with how much junk convection/rain is out there.

day2otlk_0600.gif
 
mydoortotheworld said:
Haven't kept up with this system but from the looks of it... this is trending northward... didn't think ATL would see anything
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Only the NAM is trending northward. The GFS / GGEM seemed to have shifted southward.

BTW, that temperature gradient on the NAM gives me hives.
 
The latest GFS has shifted a bit North versus previous less of a push i guess coming out of that canadian low, but im on small resolution currently to be looking @ this stuff.
 
Recent NAM is much more bullish on instability reaching north of BHM with a very clean warm sector. Low level helicity higher as well with lots of PDS soundings across central AL with surface cape in excess of 3000 and the supercell composite hitting 30. Wouldn’t be surprised to see a moderate risk issued across central AL and MS.
 
This is 6z 3km NAM, 12z coming out right now. Definitely don't take it as gospel because the 3km NAM is goofy and shouldn't be trusted. The flip side is it has been a good bit too weak on UH the past few events.

uh25_max.us_se.png
 
Arcc said:
Recent NAM is much more bullish on instability reaching north of BHM with a very clean warm sector. Low level helicity higher as well with lots of PDS soundings across central AL with surface cape in excess of 3000 and the supercell composite hitting 30. Wouldn’t be surprised to see a moderate risk issued across central AL and MS.
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Oof. You sound more concernced about this setup than the last. Whats the differences between last events and this one?
 
Arcc said:
This is 6z 3km NAM, 12z coming out right now. Definitely don't take it as gospel because the 3km NAM is goofy and shouldn't be trusted. The flip side is it has been a good bit too weak on UH the past few events.

uh25_max.us_se.png
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Really have 2 or 3 distinct hazards tomorrow. Storms that can get going just ahead of the sfc low along the tmb may get a boost from locally backed wind, more classic supercells in Southern Al and South Ga then a potential organized qlcs/spin up event on the northern fringe
 
Zander98al said:
Oof. You sound more concernced about this setup than the last. Whats the differences between last events and this one?
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Much better discrete forcing and wind vectors, much better lapse rates, much better 0-3km cape. This checks ALL the boxes historically for AL bad tornado days. Of course it also checks the boxes for how they bust. But this sounding is textbook and will still be getting better in the hour or two past this sounding.

nam4km_2020041806_039_32.79--87.2.png
 
Arcc said:
Recent NAM is much more bullish on instability reaching north of BHM with a very clean warm sector. Low level helicity higher as well with lots of PDS soundings across central AL with surface cape in excess of 3000 and the supercell composite hitting 30. Wouldn’t be surprised to see a moderate risk issued across central AL and MS.
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I agree...NAM showing CAPE over 2k here. I wouldn't be surprised to see a MDT from central MS to central GA. In fact, around here we are probably going to have extra low level helicity because of the warm front hanging around.
 
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