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4/19/20-4/20/20 Severe Weather
- Thread starter Webberweather53
- Start date
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- severe weather tornadoes wind
This is definitely shaping up to be an I-20 and south event. And good 50 or so miles south, at least for the Carolina's/GA/AL. Something major would have to change for more to get into the game, not that it won't happen. But models tend to a lot better with severe wx as opposed to winter weather.
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Zander98al
Guest
Were in a very active weather pattern. Dont look now but two severe weather events that have some potential are forethcoming in the next 7 days excluding this sunday
Yeah looks like NC will get elevated convection from SW warm/moist advection aloft towards the mid levels but a stable layer around the planetary boundary layer, great lightning photography chance for me without having to worry about damaging winds
I am good with that! Love elevated storms, thunder is twice as loud and we don't have to worry about tornadoes and damaging winds, like last week!
Hmmm the NAM3km made things more interesting however, advects so much MUcape that hail would start to become a issue, SRWs are favorable for hail aswell
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Ugh, of course, it did! I don't like the look of those storms.
At least the tornado/damaging wind threat would be hindered significantly by the stable layer/weak llvl lapse rates, but hail can definitely be a issue with elevated storms, It’s definitely close tho
My only worry is being in the Southern Piedmont. We seem to somehow come into play at the very last minute, aka now. Not that I see a widespread tornado/damaging wind outbreak, but if this warm front makes it's way up here, we could have some issues. Remember The Upstate was in a wedge all day on Sunday and still managed to see some significant tornadoes. Not that the setup is close, but it makes you think. Everyone thought that The Upstate would be fine due to the wedge, but that wasn't the case.
mbway091
Member
Last week models were showing serious issues for the entirety of the Piedmont from pretty much day one I think.
Yes, they were. But things do change. I don't think models will resort to last week's soundings. Not that I am an expert, we are just too close for things to change that much. But hey, I could be wrong.
Parker
Member
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Zander98al
Guest
Was looking at 18z nam 3km and it shows a MCS causing that. If future radar is correct itll create a pesky tornado threat. As these spin ups come and go in lines like that.
NAM is creeping north with STP 
This is concerning. The 3km NAM was on the lower side of UH the last event. Possibly very dangerous situation unfolding on the warm front/triple point. This is close to the same situation that hit Lee county last year.
accu35
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Your the "Meteorologist " you tell us
mydoortotheworld
Member
Haven't kept up with this system but from the looks of it... this is trending northward... didn't think ATL would see anythingThis is concerning. The 3km NAM was on the lower side of UH the last event. Possibly very dangerous situation unfolding on the warm front/triple point. This is close to the same situation that hit Lee county last year.
Jrips2710
Member
3K NAM verbatim doesn't get the ATL metro above 60 all day Sunday or overnight. That's not to say the threat would be eliminated but I would think cool temps would dampen the significant severe threat pretty good.
Might be a pretty crazy gradient along that warm front. This is right before the main activity starts Sunday night
The WRFs are less impressive than the NAM, although they are more impressive instability wise. The main limiting factors being storm mode and low level helicity.