4/19/20-4/20/20 Severe Weather

[bingcrosbyb]

I could see the enhanced risk pulled north of Birmingham and a moderate risk along and south of I-20.

Baron 3km really likes that area Sunday night in Alabama.

 

[Arcc]

Just to make something known, I'm not expecting a big outbreak. Im more concerned one or two storms will cross that boundary and become tornadic and possibly drop a strong tornado over a fairly populated area. I'm looking at you Shelby County.

 

[Zander98al]

Just noticed this sounding is flagging 4/16/98 like the Ukmet did earlier this week.

Thats the day the ef5 hit oak grove.

 

[farleydawg792]

 

[Arcc]

Thats the day the ef5 hit oak grove.

Actually that was April 8th which this threat also resembles. April 16 was a bigger outbreak in TN that dropped several F4s and the Forgotten F5 in Lawrence county TN.

 

[PEA_RIDGE]

Just to make something known, I'm not expecting a big outbreak. Im more concerned one or two storms will cross that boundary and become tornadic and possibly drop a strong tornado over a fairly populated area. I'm looking at you Shelby County.

Hey now don't be bringing my county in to this I'm on the Bibb/Shelby line in pea ridge in Shelby county

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

 

[DustinWx]

Just to make something known, I'm not expecting a big outbreak. Im more concerned one or two storms will cross that boundary and become tornadic and possibly drop a strong tornado over a fairly populated area. I'm looking at you Shelby County.

Didn’t you say you wouldn’t be surprised by a moderate?

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

A moderate may be needed for some areas considering what I've reviewed, and I would say a moderate would verify if there was 1 or 2 strong tornadoes.

 

[Zander98al]

Man i know this isnt tommorows event but what did we do with mother nature to deserve this.

 

[gawxnative]

View attachment 39728

Thinking this is representing the MCS Threat with main focus between US 80 and US 278 Corridors . With a "trailing" more discrete segment in "wake" triggered by south boundry of MCS south of US 80 ...

 

[accu35]

It's not time be a jackhole, I just asked because I know plenty people on this forum with a lot of meteorology experience. Btw I am an aspiring Meteorologist so have a seat @accu35 and learn to mind your business because I KNOW you did not know the answer to my question.

Your right I shouldn't said anything, just though since your a Meteorologist you would know these simple answers.

 

[Zander98al]

Is it possible that the RAP is on drugs, with this large of a warm sector and parameters?

 

[Arcc]

Didn’t you say you wouldn’t be surprised by a moderate?

I won't be. A few strong tornadoes would warrant a moderate risk.

 

[NorthDFWwx]

Is it possible that the RAP is on drugs, with this large of a warm sector and parameters?View attachment 39733View attachment 39734

You mean likely, yes.

 

[Shawn]

The latest guidance isn't lining up too badly with the SPC outlook.

Some of the updrafts are worse than the last event (of course it's a model)...

The sigtor/supercell parameters are still showing a chance of creeping further North.

Idk if TT GFS soundings are broken or I have a bad site.. but they keep showing 0 SBCape no matter what frame.. which is strange.

 

[Meteorologist1999]

The latest guidance isn't lining up too badly with the SPC outlook.

Some of the updrafts are worse than the last event (of course it's a model)...

The sigtor/supercell parameters are still showing a chance of creeping further North.

Idk if TT GFS soundings are broken or I have a bad site.. but they keep showing 0 SBCape no matter what frame.. which is strange.

I think this event is definitely one to watch . Especially for central SC.

 

[ryan1234]

This system looks to have a higher bust potential than last Sunday's system. Especially because we are dealing with a much more stout wedge. Those can really extinguish the threat of severe weather.

 

[Shawn]

This system looks to have a higher bust potential than last Sunday's system. Especially because we are dealing with a much more stout wedge. Those can really extinguish the threat of severe weather.

From my understanding, around the edge/periphery of a wedge can get storm amplification too. Wedges tend to hold on longer.. and I guess we'll see just how far the warm front gets because here is the SPC wording about it, sounding confident about the warm front (im thinking CLT will be spared at this point):

There is also a threat of daytime supercells, possibly tornadic, as
the small capping inversion is eroded by early afternoon. During the
evening and overnight, low-level shear will increase further, and
models suggest southern AL into GA may be a favored area for
tornadoes. Bows or isolated supercells are possible into SC early
Monday morning as the relatively cooler air mass is destroyed by the
warm front.

 

[Jrips2710]

here we goooo

 

[Arcc]

here we goooo
View attachment 39738View attachment 39739

Big hatch which isn't surprising.

There is some concern about dominant storm mode, but effective shear
of 50-60+ kt will easily support supercell structures. A 40-50+ kt
low-level jet is also forecast to develop across parts of LA/MS and
vicinity by peak afternoon heating. A corresponding increase in
low-level shear combined with the strong deep-layer shear and
moderate to locally strong instability suggests the potential for
strong tornadoes with scattered supercells and clusters in a
corridor extending from northern LA into southern/central MS/AL
Sunday afternoon and evening. Scattered large hail and damaging
winds, some of which could be significant, may also occur. Given the
increased confidence in strong tornadoes occurring, a Moderate Risk
has been introduced across this area.

 

[deltadog03]

If the convection becomes SFC based, like the models and SPC are indicating, I wouldn't be surprised if the MDT extends east into Central GA as well.

 

[Parker]

I am surprised the moderate risk did not go a hair further north into central alabama due to the NAM that ARCC showed earlier. This will be another interesting event to watch unfold.

 

[Arcc]

If the convection becomes SFC based, like the models and SPC are indicating, I wouldn't be surprised if the MDT extends east into Central GA as well.

Yep. And *IF* we get the thermodynamics of the NAM with the clean warm sector and increasing helicity, I would say there is an outside shot for a small high risk area just a hair west of Montgomery. Alot will depend on if the cap blows up too fast and it all goes upscale quickly.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

The similarities are a bit chilling to 3/3/19

 

[Arcc]

I am surprised the moderate risk did not go a hair further north into central alabama due to the NAM that ARCC showed earlier. This will be another interesting event to watch unfold.

It's probably smarter keeping it south for the moment and expanding it northward if needed. The current outlook is close to where the WRFs have the best envoiroment and warm fronts are notorious for not getting as far north as modeled.

 

[Webberweather53]

The similarities are a bit chilling to 3/3/19 View attachment 39740View attachment 39741

Looks like the deep south will be taking another trip to Yikea this weekend

 

[farleydawg792]

Significant differences between RAP and NAM at 6Z on Monday!

 

[Parker]

Pretty decent flood setup as well

 

[Snowfan]

 

[Arcc]

Significant differences between RAP and NAM at 6Z on Monday!View attachment 39743View attachment 39744

Much more organized low and much farther north. Would be a huge difference indeed.

Edit. Dont be surprised to see helicity increase farther. Normally the theme in these setups.

 

[Zander98al]

Oof.

 

[Zander98al]

Im kindve getting the vibe this event will be worst than last sundays for some reason. Its being talked about way less than last sundays which hopefully people arent suprised by any of these storms.

 

[SD]

This is new

 

[Snowfan]

Im kindve getting the vibe this event will be worst than last sundays for some reason. Its being talked about way less than last sundays which hopefully people arent suprised by any of these storms.View attachment 39752View attachment 39753

NAM looks bad too.

 

[Parker]

Such a sharp cutoff on the northern fringe. It’ll be fun to watch how far north the higher dew points and warm front make it. Seems to be some fairly large disagreements on that part of the forecast amongst the models

 

[Myfrotho704_]

This is new View attachment 39754

Classic meso low

 

[RollTide18]

NAM looks bad too. View attachment 39755

Honestly the NAM doesn't look too bad for my area, at least compared to the HRRR which looks, well apocalyptic.

 

[Dewpoint Dan]

Such a sharp cutoff on the northern fringe. It’ll be fun to watch how far north the higher dew points and warm front make it. Seems to be some fairly large disagreements on that part of the forecast amongst the models

View attachment 39756

It goes from Moderate to Marginal in like 50 miles. Not sure ive ever seen a gradient that sharp.

 

[ryan1234]

One thing to keep in mind is that there are frost advisories in the MA. I could honestly see this wedge over-performing enough to keep a lot of this board in the stable air mass. Not that it won't scour out eventually, but it could be enough to keep things tame for a good while. The question is, at least for AL/GA/Carolina's is, will that meso low help destabilize the airmass enough tomorrow night and into Monday morning.

 

[BufordWX]

Got a flash flood watch issued here for 2-5 inches of rain and localized higher totals between 11:00 AM Sunday and 8:00 AM Monday. I’m on the northern fringe of it though so I will probably see around 2 inches if I were to guess.

Probably not seeing any severe weather up here, but heavy rain and storms? Yep.