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4/19/20-4/20/20 Severe Weather
- Thread starter Webberweather53
- Start date
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- severe weather tornadoes wind
This is what I think, during the day, supercells/organized multicellular clusters will develop with all hazards, although there will be capping in place, and LLvL LRs are questionable although they may be better than the last event, but given solid low level hodos with decent critical angles (50-80) with decent low level shear and moderate-high instability, some tornadoes will be possible, along with large hail/damaging winds 
As it gets late at night, storm modes will shift towards a MCS/QLCS, low level jet will likely pick up as well with over 35-45kts of 1km shear, some QLCS tornadoes are possible with a wind damage threat, what gets my attention is the cyclonic flow on hodos from the low levels to the upper levels, that can help increase the chance of supercells getting going embedded in the QLCS just like the last event, this is something that has to be watched, I would say tho that parameters with the last event were scarier, but yet again, you can have scary parameters and have messy storms modes, but you can have less favorable parameters and have storm modes that are more favorable for isolated supercells so they end up producing, just something to keep in mind
As it gets late at night, storm modes will shift towards a MCS/QLCS, low level jet will likely pick up as well with over 35-45kts of 1km shear, some QLCS tornadoes are possible with a wind damage threat, what gets my attention is the cyclonic flow on hodos from the low levels to the upper levels, that can help increase the chance of supercells getting going embedded in the QLCS just like the last event, this is something that has to be watched, I would say tho that parameters with the last event were scarier, but yet again, you can have scary parameters and have messy storms modes, but you can have less favorable parameters and have storm modes that are more favorable for isolated supercells so they end up producing, just something to keep in mind
Z
Zander98al
Guest
Not again?
From NWS BMX
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cd2play
Member
As far as anymore storms with tornadoes, let's not and say we did.
Snowflowxxl
Member
The 0z NAM brought the warm front north a bit. Parameters also looked increased.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
When you pull a Southern SC sounding from the NAM, you get this...
Crap...now isn't that delightful (not, and I looked at more than the possible hazard type). I hope it's the NAM going nuts but we'll see, because to me the short range actually did a really good job in SC with last time.
Crap...now isn't that delightful (not, and I looked at more than the possible hazard type). I hope it's the NAM going nuts but we'll see, because to me the short range actually did a really good job in SC with last time.
The NAM blasts AL with very strong Supercell. The limiting factor right now is helicity, particularly at the lower levels which stays generally around 150-200. If those low level winds back, oh boy.
SPC day 3 outlook has a sizable region for significant severe weather.
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0z Euro backs surface winds to the south and yields 0-1km helicity 350-450 across AL, MS and 998mb over the far NW corner of AL. Keeps lots of precip in the warm sector which hampers instability though. However if you get the NAMs clean warm sector with this helicity numbers watch out.
From what I can tell, the 12z NAM was a bit further north yet than the 00z run.
Well, unless we see some major changes, this event looks doesn't appear to be as significant as last Sundays. And it looks to affect a smaller geographical area. So, that's good! Not that places in MS and LA won't get hit hard again, but it doesn't appear as dire.
Z
Zander98al
Guest
A lot can change from now and then. Mesoscale details will ultimately determine the risk.
True, and a lot changed with last week's events as we approached it. But the overall setup isn't the same. Just got to wait and see.
In area size wise, no, locally absolutely if not higher. The question right now is how far does the warm front go north and how contaminated is the warm sector.
Am I broken or is the 12z Euro worlds apart from other models and way slower
I don't know, but the timing is fairly similar between the models, but the EURO puts a lot of NC back into play. Looks extremely similar to last Sunday/Monday. I haven't looked specifically at the soundings yet, though. Either way, many of the same areas that got hit last week will get hit again.
mbway091
Member
Soundings don't look like much of anything here in NC. Just a rainy mess.
Of course that can always change, but it seems like things up here would need to change really really drastically in order to even approach last week and none of the models are showing that.