Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Definitely think it's time to go ahead & pull the trigger on this one given the overall support this has inside day 4 & I expect the SPC to denote this pretty soon in their convective outlooks. While a large proportion of this board may not see anything severe wx wise whatsoever, and this threat will be considerably more tame overall than this past weekend, definitely looks like a respectable event is coming up for the portions of the Arklatex, Gulf coast, and those well south of I-20.
A pair of closed lows off the coast of California will eject out of the Desert southwest this weekend, resulting in cyclogenesis over the southern plains and deep south, coupled with warm, moist southerly return flow off the Gulf of Mexico and modest-moderate destabilization, especially across the Arklatex and Gulf coast.
Deep layer shear of 40-60 knots across the warm sector coupled with strong forcing for ascent & long cyclonically curved hodographs through the lowest 1-2km w/ some mid-level backing (especially later on in the evolution) favors supercell clusters and some upscale growth into a QLCS with primary hazards of damaging straight line winds and isolated tornadoes. Low-level shear across the warm sector & low-level lapse rates and instability appear to be the primary limiting factors to tornadoes but values somewhere in the ballpark of 200-250 m2/s2 & ~750-1000 j/kg respectively, are generally sufficient to produce tornadoes w/ some potential for a few to be strong, especially if more shear &/or CAPE is realized.
CIPS severe weather analog guidance really picking up on this too.
A pair of closed lows off the coast of California will eject out of the Desert southwest this weekend, resulting in cyclogenesis over the southern plains and deep south, coupled with warm, moist southerly return flow off the Gulf of Mexico and modest-moderate destabilization, especially across the Arklatex and Gulf coast.
Deep layer shear of 40-60 knots across the warm sector coupled with strong forcing for ascent & long cyclonically curved hodographs through the lowest 1-2km w/ some mid-level backing (especially later on in the evolution) favors supercell clusters and some upscale growth into a QLCS with primary hazards of damaging straight line winds and isolated tornadoes. Low-level shear across the warm sector & low-level lapse rates and instability appear to be the primary limiting factors to tornadoes but values somewhere in the ballpark of 200-250 m2/s2 & ~750-1000 j/kg respectively, are generally sufficient to produce tornadoes w/ some potential for a few to be strong, especially if more shear &/or CAPE is realized.
CIPS severe weather analog guidance really picking up on this too.
