If the convection becomes SFC based, like the models and SPC are indicating, I wouldn't be surprised if the MDT extends east into Central GA as well.
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4/19/20-4/20/20 Severe Weather
- Thread starter Webberweather53
- Start date
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- Tags
- severe weather tornadoes wind
Parker
Member
I am surprised the moderate risk did not go a hair further north into central alabama due to the NAM that ARCC showed earlier. This will be another interesting event to watch unfold.
Yep. And *IF* we get the thermodynamics of the NAM with the clean warm sector and increasing helicity, I would say there is an outside shot for a small high risk area just a hair west of Montgomery. Alot will depend on if the cap blows up too fast and it all goes upscale quickly.
The similarities are a bit chilling to 3/3/19 
It's probably smarter keeping it south for the moment and expanding it northward if needed. The current outlook is close to where the WRFs have the best envoiroment and warm fronts are notorious for not getting as far north as modeled.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
farleydawg792
Member
Significant differences between RAP and NAM at 6Z on Monday!
Parker
Member
Pretty decent flood setup as well
Much more organized low and much farther north. Would be a huge difference indeed.
Edit. Dont be surprised to see helicity increase farther. Normally the theme in these setups.
Z
Zander98al
Guest
Oof.
Z
Zander98al
Guest
Im kindve getting the vibe this event will be worst than last sundays for some reason. Its being talked about way less than last sundays which hopefully people arent suprised by any of these storms.
This is new 
NAM looks bad too.
Parker
Member
Such a sharp cutoff on the northern fringe. It’ll be fun to watch how far north the higher dew points and warm front make it. Seems to be some fairly large disagreements on that part of the forecast amongst the models
RollTide18
Member
Honestly the NAM doesn't look too bad for my area, at least compared to the HRRR which looks, well apocalyptic.
Dewpoint Dan
Member
It goes from Moderate to Marginal in like 50 miles. Not sure ive ever seen a gradient that sharp.
One thing to keep in mind is that there are frost advisories in the MA. I could honestly see this wedge over-performing enough to keep a lot of this board in the stable air mass. Not that it won't scour out eventually, but it could be enough to keep things tame for a good while. The question is, at least for AL/GA/Carolina's is, will that meso low help destabilize the airmass enough tomorrow night and into Monday morning.
Got a flash flood watch issued here for 2-5 inches of rain and localized higher totals between 11:00 AM Sunday and 8:00 AM Monday. I’m on the northern fringe of it though so I will probably see around 2 inches if I were to guess.
Probably not seeing any severe weather up here, but heavy rain and storms? Yep.
Probably not seeing any severe weather up here, but heavy rain and storms? Yep.