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4/19/20-4/20/20 Severe Weather

Zander98al said:
A little suprised but considerding things become more favorable this afternoon its understandable. Likely be a pds watch later in the afternoon. Doesnt take a pds watch though for violent long track tornadoes though.
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Should always remember that while these folks are the best in the business, they're assigning imaginary numbers and colors to a map. Weather is gonna do what it wants to do, whether that be a bust or an outbreak
 
According to BMX, the boundary between Greenville and Montgomery that was left from the morning MCS is supposed to dissipate after noon allowing the warm front to move north. The lastest satellite imagery seems to show that process has begun.

The wall of how far north it will be able to go is also very evident on visible satellite as well as radar. My question is, has the insolation over parts of northern and central AL/MS created a weakness that will tug the precip train a little further north allowing the warm front to progress slightly further north? Nothing drastic it seems but with such a sharp gradient and the potential for the boundary to be focus of the worst of the day's storms that few miles could be critical in terms of the population that will be affected by today's storms.

I know it isn't much but the current radar loop seems show the band of precip being about 20-25 miles further north than was predicted on the HRRR a couple of hours ago and it seems each successive batch of rain crossing the MS/AL line is a tad further north than the previous batch.
 
Sleet City USA said:
Should always remember that while these folks are the best in the business, they're assigning imaginary numbers and colors to a map. Weather is gonna do what it wants to do, whether that be a bust or an outbreak
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Exactly ?.
 
Worried about this area within the next few hours. Its getting breaks in the clouds and is a powder keg at the moment with all the instability 20200419_120111.jpgScreenshot_20200419-115954_Samsung Internet.jpg
 
Zander98al said:
A little suprised but considerding things become more favorable this afternoon its understandable. Likely be a pds watch later in the afternoon. Doesnt take a pds watch though for violent long track tornadoes though.
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Yeah, not that surprising. The better low level helicity will be across far East MS, all of south AL on into GA.
 
49 in Douglasville. Nice and stable here. I’d imagine a hundred miles south is a different story.
 
Parker said:
BMX latest graphic is much further south then the SPC forecast
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That's very interesting to me. Wasn't there a tweet that said BMX talked SPC out of a high risk? If that's true, its just odd to me that they are going off on their own.
 
Zander98al said:
Which area do consider the most prime for a significant storm this afternoon?
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In this setups like this, a ~hundred miles off the Gulf. Right now I'm thinking right around the Montgomery area. That seems to be close to where the warm front will be and the intersection of the wedge front.
 
Sleet City USA said:
That's very interesting to me. Wasn't there a tweet that said BMX talked SPC out of a high risk? If that's true, its just odd to me that they are going off on their own.
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It always bothers me when you have the SPC saying one thing and then the NWS saying another. Jason Simpson made a post just a minute ago and I will have to share it but he was more in line with the SPC as well. BMX pretty much says no threat at all bham north but that’s not what the SPC is going with.

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In Wind creek helping remove items from the camper. Y’all, the tree damage in Kellyton is EXTREME. Lots of damage to metal buildings and the top of a high tension power line took off. Widespread damage. I have little doubt they will find winds >100mph.
 
Watching these developing storms as they have a lot of room to work with.Screenshot_20200419-140734_RadarScope.jpg
 
Very odd to see the hook on the Texas cell with such weak rotation
 
Rain's beginning to clear out here and it's brightening up. Low-mid 50s, we'll see if it warms while it's brightening, hopefully the rain did the trick though.

Hopefully it did to the south/southeast too. Less hopeful there. Would try to track along with the major problems showing a sign of beginning but I need to get in some exercise.
 
I seem pretty far north of the line here, but the sun has been out for about 45 now


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Either this is a massive debris ball or radar clutter im really hoping its the latter.Screenshot_20200419-142254_RadarScope.jpg
 
Any info on this potential tornado in LA. The cc drop just keeps getting bigger but the velocity couplet is like not there.Screenshot_20200419-142813_RadarScope.jpg
 
Zander98al said:
Watching these developing storms as they have a lot of room to work with.View attachment 39831
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I'm a little north of Jackson in Madison MS, even our local station, WAPT said most of the storms would be south and south east MS but so far it seems like most of this is north of I20. Looks like it's just starting to develop south near Hattiesburg now
 
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