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4/19/20-4/20/20 Severe Weather

Really pulling for the wedge to win this time like it has in other cases...but I'll tell you who really needs it, and I'm doubtful it makes it all the way there. Areas southeast of me into southern SC. Maybe I wasn't looking too hard for a day or so, but on the 18z short range, some sketchy parameters for the same areas that got blasted last Sunday over there looked back to me. It actually looks like about the same timeperiod too. :rolleyes:

Screw nighttime tornado threats. If it ends up similar to last week, tomorrow's short range models are going to be very interesting. As I kept seeing some high parameters in southern SC.
 
More and likely a pds watch will be issued for south alabama tommorow if things go as planned. ?
 
Parker said:
Such a sharp cutoff on the northern fringe. It’ll be fun to watch how far north the higher dew points and warm front make it. Seems to be some fairly large disagreements on that part of the forecast amongst the models

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That sharp cutoff will create a nasty mesoscale boundary and really raise helicity around it.
 
This one has a sneaky feel too it. Either the warm front doesn’t come as far north or this one could raise some hell. Parameters actually look more favorable around here vs last Sunday. Cape is at or above 1800-3000 (some model runs) and shear is more than enough.
 
deltadog03 said:
This one has a sneaky feel too it. Either the warm front doesn’t come as far north or this one could raise some hell. Parameters actually look more favorable around here vs last Sunday. Cape is at or above 1800-3000 (some model runs) and shear is more than enough.
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Yes Sir!! I m worried about !) Cells in the MCS running the Warm Boundary and then Any Discrete that comes with "Round 2" (South of US 80 or so.) Late Night.
 
SouthATLwx said:
18z NAM made another shift northward. Close to being pretty ominous for the South ATL Metro.
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There's been a very noticeable slowing/amping trend on the NAM with our s/w over the lower Tennessee Valley. All else considered, this definitely favors the warm sector coming further north & west and potentially creeping up on areas like Atlanta, however mesoscale variability can make up the difference and then some.

namconus_z500_vort_eus_fh36_trend.gif
 
Webberweather53 said:
There's been a very noticeable slowing/amping trend on the NAM with our s/w over the lower Tennessee Valley. All else considered, this definitely favors the warm sector coming further north & west and potentially creeping up on areas like Atlanta, however mesoscale variability can make up the difference and then some.

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What concerns me a little is 40-50 south of me has a tornado sounding and I've crept up into severe soundings from a previous nothingburger sounding. I'm wondering if the nam is onto something and in may have to watch this east of I-95 if some better instability works in.
 
How close is this thing to shifting just 20-30 miles north?


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Shaggy said:
What concerns me a little is 40-50 south of me has a tornado sounding and I've crept up into severe soundings from a previous nothingburger sounding. I'm wondering if the nam is onto something and in may have to watch this east of I-95 if some better instability works in.
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Yeah I favor elevated convection solution for the moment, but this is one of those cases where we definitely need to keep an eye on how far north the warm front advances tomorrow over the lower MS valley
 
The baron model that Fox6 has been showing for us here in Bham has trended a little further north with areas of rotation than its previous runs.

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RAP is quite close CBA43B04-4A19-4FCC-A348-D447760F9747.png
Sounding near Rock hill SC
69DA5FB8-4A69-4BE1-A545-FC8C9E9BAA0E.pngSounding near CLT 8E32BAC7-E81D-4BDB-89A3-847B2838ADE6.png
These soundings are still elevated with terrible low level lapse rates but it’s getting close, this at least supports organized elevated storms, again tho this is the LR RAP....
 
We are considered to be in a more tornado-prone area compared to NC as a whole. These setups can bite us in the ass, especially we break from the wedge and storms ride that boundary. It sorta happened last Sunday in the Upstate.
 

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ryan1234 said:
We are considered to be in a more tornado-prone area compared to NC as a whole. These setups can bite us in the ass, especially we break from the wedge and storms ride that boundary. It sorta happened last Sunday in the Upstate.
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Thankfully, we won't have anywhere near the amount of CAPE we had last weekend
 
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