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4/19/20-4/20/20 Severe Weather

gawxnative said:
Seeing in some tweets SPC going High Risk in Day 1 coming out shortly??
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Yep this guy says that’s what they are saying in the NWS chat. Looks to be for SE Mississippi into central and southern Alabama. Moderate expanded further east too. If this is true of course.
 
BufordWX said:
Yep this guy says that’s what they are saying in the NWS chat. Looks to be for SE Mississippi into central and southern Alabama. Moderate expanded further east too. If this is true of course.
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NOT the breaking news I would want... with "ours" being overnight most likely... Ok while keeping 6 foot seperation.. everyone line up, facing south and play part of Big Bad Wolf from the 3 Little Pigs... LOL
 
I'm honestly a little surprised. I said early yesterday that I could see a high risk if everything was playing out perfectly. Honestly though my confidence is less in that at this point. Not that the danger is less, just more uncertain at this point. That said the latest RAP is a nightmare. Much more bullish on instability than the WRFs or HRRR. Would also paint a significant nighttime issue for central AL.
 
Arcc said:
I'm honestly a little surprised. I said early yesterday that I could see a high risk if everything was playing out perfectly. Honestly though my confidence is less in that at this point. Not that the danger is less, just more uncertain at this point. That said the latest RAP is a nightmare. Much more bullish on instability than the WRFs or HRRR.
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Yes was thinking that with everything of last week, that one looked more "needing" of High Risk... with the "record" wind fields/shear.
 
Last I saw looks like SPC might be changing there mind at the last second. Might not be a high risk.

Edit: Yep, no high risk but moderate expanded east some.
 
Lol why is CLT in a marginal/slight, looks like stratiform rain at this point
 
ahh this is probably why, RAP still holding steady
Sounding near clt 478B1166-0EC4-4017-A689-F3250C032C1C.pngE8A52924-AC8A-47B6-AF1F-A89368C58ADE.png
 
Arcc said:
Looks like it's falling to the RAP, which is downright nasty. The nocturnal threat on the RAP has sbcapes ~2000 with helicity increasing to 400+ up to BHM.
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yeah That nocturnal threat ain’t no joke, hodographs are actually quite similar to the ones observed with the Easter system during the night, hodograph is very cylonic up into the troposphere aswell which may help supercellular structures break out in the line B1FD39CD-3C4D-4056-BC3D-1DFC04503F10.png
 
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