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4/19/20-4/20/20 Severe Weather

HRRR ticked a hair south from the 6z on severe parameters, still is close for much later on one frame and is looking problematic in southern SC.
 
LovingGulfLows said:
Rain totals are really going to add up in the metro area though.
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Yeah probably about 1.5-3 in Atlanta, 1-2 to the north, and 2-4 inches in the south metro if I were to guess. Nothing like in central Georgia and Alabama though. Probably will see 4-6 inches there with isolated 6-8 totals and maybe even an occasional total higher then that.
 
The NAM made a pretty decent shift southward.

In fact, if it were correct, the round of storms later today / tonight will miss the BHM - ATL corridor largely to the south.
 
It seems from what you guys are posting that a lot of the threat seems to mostly be east of Mississippi, is that right or since a lot of you guys are from AL/GA that's just what a lot of the conversations been about?
 
MMM0513 said:
It seems from what you guys are posting that a lot of the threat seems to mostly be east of Mississippi, is that right or since a lot of you guys are from AL/GA that's just what a lot of the conversations been about?
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Welcome. There will be significant threat in central MS. Most posters are East if your location, glad to have another Mississippi poster onboard
 
SouthATLwx said:
The NAM made a pretty decent shift southward.

In fact, if it were correct, the round of storms later today / tonight will miss the BHM - ATL corridor largely to the south.
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I hope so, I don’t want anymore rain. Currently 48 with light rain. Just a awful day.


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So, BMX is showing the severe threat ending around midnight for all of their forecast counties. WSBTV in ATL shows another line coming through my area around 2-3 am... I tend to monitor both since I’m on the state line... why the discrepancy with another line early Monday as shown by WSB in ATLANTA?
 
Psalm 148:8 said:
So, BMX is showing the severe threat ending around midnight for all of their forecast counties. WSBTV in ATL shows another line coming through my area around 2-3 am... I tend to monitor both since I’m on the state line... why the discrepancy with another line early Monday as shown by WSB in ATLANTA?
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I guess it's going to take 2-3 hrs to get from the state line to your house.
 
Dewpoint Dan said:
I guess it's going to take 2-3 hrs to get from the state line to your house.
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I am 10 min from state line in Troup County GA...still quite a discrepancy in channel 2 atl... maybe their own models... vs bmx ??? Guess we will find out later tonite if it’s over around 10 or 11 pm fir me or if more is coming.
 
Psalm 148:8 said:
I am 10 min from state line in Troup County GA...still quite a discrepancy in channel 2 atl... maybe their own models... vs bmx ??? Guess we will find out later tonite if it’s over around 10 or 11 pm fir me or if more is coming.
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WSB (and the other Atlanta Stations) are modeling for the Atlanta DMA. which is large. BMX is forecasting for their CWA. Also keep in mind Central vs Eastern time zones.
 
Im guessing everybody can probably tell were the warm front will likely be stationed Screenshot_20200419-102348_Chrome.jpg
 
I know we are not under the gun here like you guys down south but i did find this 1030 update a little intriguing from MHX.


Winds becoming more from the S this afternoon,
both temps and dewpoints will increase slightly higher than what
was in the forecasted...therefore increasing instability for
this afternoon. CAPE values are expected to reach btw 700-1000
J/kg, LI values around -4C with sufficient bulk shear for late
this afternoon...can lead to strong to severe thunderstorms.
SPC continues to have the area in marginal south of HWY 264 with
a slight risk along our southern counties.
 
And so it begins ?. Im curious to wether south alabama will be put under a high risk. I doubt it but its not out of the realm of possibilities Screenshot_20200419-110755_Chrome.jpg
 
Mod maintained
day1otlk_1630.gif
 
Man, LA has over 4500 j of instability at 11:00 thats insane. Also note were the warm front is by the sattelite picture and sbcape plot. sbcp-2.gif1kmv-2.gif
 
Rain totals are really adding up between Birmingham and Montgomery with that training line of storms. Already seeing some 4-5 inch rain reports and their chance of rain continues through tonight.
 
Would like to note smoke is pluming northward again towards us for this event. Wonder how thatll effect things if the cap will be strengthened. IMG_20200419_112237.jpgIMG_20200419_112211.jpg
 
That south/central Alabama area... is there a good TV livestream SVR source, like out of Montgomery, or Mobile maybe?
 
Arcc said:
Boundaries everywhere. If one or two Supercell become isolated, it may get ugly in a hurry.
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I think thats what some models are hinting at, the possibility with the updraft helicity swaths lets not hope so though.
 
I was thinking that high pressure in west Ga would lessen the threat around LaGrange. It’s still 50 degrees here!
Arcc said:
Boundaries everywhere. If one or two Supercell become isolated, it may get ugly in a hurry.
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Sleet City USA said:
Tornado watch out for LA/MS, probs are 90/70. NOT a PDS watch
ww0121_radar.gif
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A little suprised but considerding things become more favorable this afternoon its understandable. Likely be a pds watch later in the afternoon. Doesnt take a pds watch though for violent long track tornadoes though.
 
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