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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm

Jessy89 said:
He’s been a metrologist for a long time. Based on his experience i would say


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My experience with brad says he downplays any winter threat (often excessively) on purpose until it’s beyond obvious that it’s actually going to snow. He will rarely stray too far from NWP models as most predictably do, and he often gets burned for that. He’s not horrible with winter storms but this is a very predictable pattern from Brad, in a few days he almost certainly won’t be singing the same tune if NWP evolves like I think they will going forward.

He’s still better than NWS GSP who’s had a god awful track record of late, completely whiffing on at least 2 storms this winter in the southern mountains of NC and going full on weenie in Dec 2018 over CLT when it was apparent we’d have considerable mixing issues here. Thank goodness for NWS RAH & FFC...
 
Webberweather53 said:
My experience with brad says he downplays any winter threat (often excessively) on purpose until it’s beyond obvious that it’s actually going to snow. He will rarely stray too far from NWP models as most predictably do, and he often gets burned for that. He’s not horrible with winter storms but this is a very predictable pattern from Brad, in a few days he almost certainly won’t be singing the same tune if NWP evolves like I think they will going forward.

He’s still better than NWS GSP who’s had a god awful track record of late, completely whiffing on at least 2 storms this winter in the southern mountains of NC and going full on weenie in Dec 2018 over CLT when it was apparent we’d have considerable mixing issues here. Thank goodness for NWS RAH & FFC...
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Yeah, Jan 2018 is a big case for Brad going to low, then as it started snowing he started saying things like “it won’t let up, there may be more snow than forecasted” when models were already showing a solid event
 
Plenty cold though, just need a little more moisture.... I think verbatim that was a raging virga storm up this way, maybe a renegade flake or two make it to the surface.

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metwannabe said:
Still looks too flat and a tick SE this go.... still in the ball park of doable however.

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I see a trend with better looks earlier in the run, but it ends up too flat by the time the system arrives. I think a little more improvement with the trough axis early on will result in a better look when the system arrives. There has to be enough of a trough for it to turn north a bit more. Hopefully the usual NW trend will happen...
 
per tarheelsnow on amwx. euros trend westward with precip over the past few runs.
Euro.gif.12b3715e6ec2ea7368875d3a9e99848f.gif
 
DopplerWx said:
per tarheelsnow on amwx. euros trend westward with precip over the past few runs.
Euro.gif.12b3715e6ec2ea7368875d3a9e99848f.gif
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No question it has but it did tick slightly SE at 12z compared to 0z, still this isn't a bad look at all with just over 72 hrs to go

edit: was it a slight improvement over the 06z?
 
metwannabe said:
No question it has but it did tick slightly SE at 12z compared to 0z, still this isn't a bad look at all with just over 72 hrs to go

edit: was it a slight improvement over the 06z?
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Euro continues to show us struggling to saturate the layers between 850 and 925 even when its showing precipitation reaching the sfc.
 
ATLwxfan said:
12z NAM a tick south. This bears watching for North AL and GA north of I-20. I little further south and a little more juice and it’s a potential board wide threat. Getting into the NAM wheelhouse.


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I don’t wanna hex is but I’ve said this all along. It was our only path really was if globals were missing cold sign this far south (social circle ga). We’re into legit NAM territory. I know it can overdo cold but given this set up it may best the globals. At least we’re not out of game totally yet. Here’s to NAMing ourselves to victory?
 
i think that it is important to look at everything going into this setup rather than what the models are spitting out verbatim. sure, euro/gfs aren't showing deep blues over nc/sc but looking at the soundings it is obvious that with anything other than a drizzle it will likely be snow.

now, hoping for a westward tick in precip is not unreasonable, look at the past few runs of the nam/gfs/euro for tues/weds rain event and see how much more precip blossomed west than what was initially forecasted.

i don't think it is weenie-ish to be optimistic about this setup in NC because with the northern end of the precip just to the south and upper level temps well below freezing, a small shift in precip will make a massive difference. much different setup than we usually have which is praying for a warm nose to not screw us over.
 
snowlover91 said:
The irony of the GEFS, which was the snowiest ensemble suite for days, is now the least snowy ensemble mean. Meanwhile the Euro has flipped from nothing to a solid storm signal over the past few days. I’d much rather have the EPS on my side in the short range and I expect GEFS will catch back on.
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Brick alluded to this a few weeks ago how some models will lose the LP only to bring it back just days before.
 
Ethan80963 said:
SREF mean and members. Some big dogs are farther south
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Wow, worth noting to that 84 is when it starts effecting NC on some members aswell so this wasn’t 100% done, those members that do show something are quite juicy, was thinking SC (areas around and NE of CAE) we’re out of it but things have sorta looked better, anything is possible lol
Also gotta remember that the sref can kinda suck badly at times tho
 
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