Thor
Member
Hi Res picking up on the Ptype
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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm
- Thread starter Six Mile Wx
- Start date
GaSnowhound
Member
I don’t wanna hex is but I’ve said this all along. It was our only path really was if globals were missing cold sign this far south (social circle ga). We’re into legit NAM territory. I know it can overdo cold but given this set up it may best the globals. At least we’re not out of game totally yet. Here’s to NAMing ourselves to victory?
I’m tempering my enthusiasm until zero hour.
i think that it is important to look at everything going into this setup rather than what the models are spitting out verbatim. sure, euro/gfs aren't showing deep blues over nc/sc but looking at the soundings it is obvious that with anything other than a drizzle it will likely be snow.
now, hoping for a westward tick in precip is not unreasonable, look at the past few runs of the nam/gfs/euro for tues/weds rain event and see how much more precip blossomed west than what was initially forecasted.
i don't think it is weenie-ish to be optimistic about this setup in NC because with the northern end of the precip just to the south and upper level temps well below freezing, a small shift in precip will make a massive difference. much different setup than we usually have which is praying for a warm nose to not screw us over.
now, hoping for a westward tick in precip is not unreasonable, look at the past few runs of the nam/gfs/euro for tues/weds rain event and see how much more precip blossomed west than what was initially forecasted.
i don't think it is weenie-ish to be optimistic about this setup in NC because with the northern end of the precip just to the south and upper level temps well below freezing, a small shift in precip will make a massive difference. much different setup than we usually have which is praying for a warm nose to not screw us over.
EPS looks pretty good, Still going at this time 
Dayum, one of the best runs yet in the shorter term 
Yeah, I think the 12z EPS mean may actually be a tick better than the 00z. Looks like all models are picking up on the coastal now in some form or fashion. I wish I lived further east for this one.
Broken024
Member
that looks like it is a pretty big increase from 0z/6z right?
Hmmm...nice! I just hope it's not skewed by one monster
Actually looks like lots of solid hits vs huge big dogs 
man, best run yet for the euro ensembles, a lot of those members show legit hits.
Oconeexman
Member
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That's funny as hell!
Looking forward to the inside 48hr mark. Then maybe have a clue to what this thing is gonna do
snowlover91
Member
The irony of the GEFS, which was the snowiest ensemble suite for days, is now the least snowy ensemble mean. Meanwhile the Euro has flipped from nothing to a solid storm signal over the past few days. I’d much rather have the EPS on my side in the short range and I expect GEFS will catch back on.
Avalanche
Member
Will be interesting to see specifically where that coastal low develops, the precip shield associated with it, and any remnant moisture back west.
iGRXY
Member
Avalanche
Member
Brick alluded to this a few weeks ago how some models will lose the LP only to bring it back just days before.
SREF mean and members. Some big dogs are farther south (Sorry of the blurriness)
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Wow, worth noting to that 84 is when it starts effecting NC on some members aswell so this wasn’t 100% done, those members that do show something are quite juicy, was thinking SC (areas around and NE of CAE) we’re out of it but things have sorta looked better, anything is possible lol
Also gotta remember that the sref can kinda suck badly at times tho
